This article from Jan 2022 seems quite prescient: https://www.vortexa.com/insights/products/reality-check-on-russian-oil-and-gas-sanctions/ https://www.vortexa

This article from Jan 2022 seems quite prescient: https://www.vortexa.com/insights/products/reality-check-on-russian-oil-and-gas-sanctions/ https://www.vortexa.com/insights/products/reality-check-on-r... "Geopolitical tensions around the Ukraine conflict between Russia and a not truly consistent US/European conglomerate are straining and the word “sanctions” is being touted with rising frequency. But by analysing flows it’s clear that any material sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports are unlikely to materialise. If this were to happen, Europe would have much more to lose than Russia. In this insight we’ll explore why." Basically, Russia depended on Europe for about half of its fossil fuel export market in 2020, a steep drop from 2010 when Europe made up about 80% of the exports. Unfortunately the geopolitical prediction was a bit off: > "Given just how huge the ramifications would be for Europe, as well as how toothless flow sanctions would be without blocking Russian exports, which in turn would put the entire world into a different place, we deem it most likely that current tensions will be solved diplomatically."