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It is utterly inexcusable that Germany continued to rely entirely on Russian gas after the invasion of Crimea in 2014 at the very latest. We didn't have a singl

by TillE 4y ago

It is utterly inexcusable that Germany continued to rely entirely on Russian gas after the invasion of Crimea in 2014 at the very latest. We didn't have a single LNG terminal! Pick your mix of blind stupidity and outright corruption, but I lean heavily towards the latter.

hnhg 4y ago
Outright corruption doesn't seem far-fetched: https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1561354139464044544?s=21&t=zmMBH21SsiT5RIrAG_OzFw https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1561354139464044544...
ploppyploppy 4y ago
Germany's elites were almost certainly corrupt in this.
- ChuckNorris89 4y ago
  "Almost"?!
drexlspivey 4y ago
Look no further than Gerhard Schroder (ex Chancellor of Germany). He was a strong advocate of the Nord Stream pipeline between Russia and Germany. He later became manager of Nord Stream 2, he joined the board of directors of Rosnef (biggest Russian oil producer) and 20 days before the Russian invasion he joined the board of directors of Gazprom
- ethbr0 4y ago
  There have been more reasonable explanations of the causality of that. To wit, that multinational energy deals of that magnitude require political investment and certainty to be tenable. Schroder's involvement was a tacit acknowledgement of this reality, and gesture of political good faith. Or put another way, neither Russia nor Germany would have contemplated the project without serious indications of political support.
nivenkos 4y ago
Even back with the poisoning of Litvinenko, etc. But tbh even since the 1970s, we know peak oil is coming. Nuclear fission and fusion plus full electrification of industry, transport and homes, and renewable energy investment should be absolutely critical. This is what taxes and governments are for! Jumping on the US bandwagon so late is a mistake though, given the current situation it'd be best to stay neutral realistically (like Armenia, Georgia, etc.) and use the time to achieve the above. Ideology is nice, but realpolitik keeps the lights on.
- sam_lowry_ 4y ago
  Armenia gets 80% of its electricity production from a single nuclear power plant owned and operated by Russia. It also sits in a seismically active area of the world, tbn.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    Don't confuse simplistic world views with facts. Also, I learned something about Armenia today.
    - sam_lowry_ 4y ago
      This single fact explains most of Armenian politics. Russian wings Armenia like a dog wings its tail.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
Brometheus 4y ago
Sadly that's probably true. At the same time, the Energiewende (change to renewables) was sabotaged. Wonder why…
TrispusAttucks 4y ago
Yep. They've been warned about this danger for years. Germany 'Totally Controlled By Russia' (2018) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLZBVTid4I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLZBVTid4I
- hef19898 4y ago
  Seriously?
  - TMWNN 4y ago
    Your comments in this discussion are filled with desperate denial of the horrible situation your leaders have gotten yourselves into, and all you can say in response to video of Trump warning about this four years ago is "Seriously?". Had Heiko Maas gone home four years ago and advised Merkel to listen to Trump and start weaning the country off Russian gas (and, yes, buy US gas instead), Germany would not face this existential crisis today. Instead, he laughed at the US president on camera, and is now enjoying a quiet retirement in Saarland (and, no doubt has no worries about whether he will be able to get gas to heat his home this winter). *The German crisis is 100% self-inflicted*.
    - hef19898 4y ago
      There is a crisis, but it is hardly "existential", yet. Self inflicted? How so? Because nobody could predict the future? My "seriously" comment was a reaction to a post of what basically is a meme in a rather serious discussion. As far the "German" crisis goes, isn't it rather a European, and one could make the case, global energy crisis? Compounded by a global economy heading for a recession (the US are already in one based on two quarters with negative GDP growth) caused by too much cheap money and staggering inflation due to supply short falls caused by Covid? But yeah, if Germany would have bought US gas instead of Russian one all would be good... By the way, Nord Stream 2 never went live over this. Before any of the current mess happened. You want to blame someone, blame Putin to do something the USSR was too smart to do during the cold war.
      - 4y ago
menotyou 4y ago
The whole issue is self inflicted by the German government. So far Russia adhered to the supply contracts. The stakes are high for Russia here. If Russia would not adhere to the contract even in these times, other contract partners like India and China would likely reconsider their long term contracts. It was Europe which decided not to by cheap Russian gas anymore and to ground their own economy. Instead Europa has to buy gas now on the spot market for about ten times the price. So Russia is more than happy by adhering to the contract and watching Europe to inflicting the damage themselves. If the West would have decided to buy their NLG somewhere else 5 years ago, Russia would have invaded the Ukraine even with less considerations.
- rich_sasha 4y ago
  Russia is cutting deliveries quoting supposed technical problems, and demands unilateral changes to gas contracts, viz RUB payments. They also cut supplies to 0 for a number of European countries. I mean, i don't quite blame them, they started a war and the West is sending in military kit to kill their soldiers in Ukraine, but Russia is certainly not holding it's side of the contracts here. But it is indeed self inflicted as everyone warned Germany that this is how it will end. But hey gas was cheap for a while.
  - origin_path 4y ago
    The only time supplies were cut to zero was for the annual maintenance which happens in the summer every single year, and the pipeline is always shut down for that. Go look at the history of Nord Stream flow rates (on their website) to see that this is true if you don't believe me. The technical problems are real. A western company (German even) received a compressor turbine, repaired it and then sat on it due to sanctions. Germany got the sanctions voided for that equipment and it was shipped it back to Russia. If the problems weren't real we can assume it would have been discovered at that point. Also remember that the whole point of imposing sanctions on Russia is to degrade their factories and ability to repair complex equipment! Industrial disruption due to inability to access foreign parts and repair services is exactly what the sanctions were meant to create and yet when it happens, media and government claim there can be no possible wear and tear on huge pieces of rapidly spinning equipment, so it must all be 4D chess. Russia did not "demand unilateral changes to gas contracts". It's the other way around. Europe sanctioned Russia and then stole all their EUR foreign reserves, an unprecedented and highly hostile move. Because Russia could no longer transact in EUR they said, OK, you'll have to pay us for gas in rubles. Given this they could theoretically have said you're violating your contracts which say you'll pay us in EUR, so we won't supply any gas until you un-sanction us, but they didn't. So, every claim you're making here is wrong and this can be checked against documented facts and sources that aren't connected to Russia. This is a core part of the problem with what's happening. The media lies and simply makes things up. People believe it anyway. Did Russiagate teach us nothing? What Russia is doing is bad but telling ourselves a bunch of nonsensical fairy tales will only make the situation worse.

by TillE 4y ago

hnhg 4y ago

Outright corruption doesn't seem far-fetched: https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1561354139464044544?s=21&t=zmMBH21SsiT5RIrAG_OzFw https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1561354139464044544...

ploppyploppy 4y ago

Germany's elites were almost certainly corrupt in this.

ChuckNorris89 4y ago
"Almost"?!

drexlspivey 4y ago

Look no further than Gerhard Schroder (ex Chancellor of Germany). He was a strong advocate of the Nord Stream pipeline between Russia and Germany. He later became manager of Nord Stream 2, he joined the board of directors of Rosnef (biggest Russian oil producer) and 20 days before the Russian invasion he joined the board of directors of Gazprom

ethbr0 4y ago
There have been more reasonable explanations of the causality of that. To wit, that multinational energy deals of that magnitude require political investment and certainty to be tenable. Schroder's involvement was a tacit acknowledgement of this reality, and gesture of political good faith. Or put another way, neither Russia nor Germany would have contemplated the project without serious indications of political support.

nivenkos 4y ago

Even back with the poisoning of Litvinenko, etc. But tbh even since the 1970s, we know peak oil is coming. Nuclear fission and fusion plus full electrification of industry, transport and homes, and renewable energy investment should be absolutely critical. This is what taxes and governments are for! Jumping on the US bandwagon so late is a mistake though, given the current situation it'd be best to stay neutral realistically (like Armenia, Georgia, etc.) and use the time to achieve the above. Ideology is nice, but realpolitik keeps the lights on.

sam_lowry_ 4y ago
Armenia gets 80% of its electricity production from a single nuclear power plant owned and operated by Russia. It also sits in a seismically active area of the world, tbn.
- hef19898 4y ago
  Don't confuse simplistic world views with facts. Also, I learned something about Armenia today.
  - sam_lowry_ 4y ago
    This single fact explains most of Armenian politics. Russian wings Armenia like a dog wings its tail.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

Brometheus 4y ago

Sadly that's probably true. At the same time, the Energiewende (change to renewables) was sabotaged. Wonder why…

TrispusAttucks 4y ago

Yep. They've been warned about this danger for years. Germany 'Totally Controlled By Russia' (2018) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLZBVTid4I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLZBVTid4I

hef19898 4y ago
Seriously?
- TMWNN 4y ago
  Your comments in this discussion are filled with desperate denial of the horrible situation your leaders have gotten yourselves into, and all you can say in response to video of Trump warning about this four years ago is "Seriously?". Had Heiko Maas gone home four years ago and advised Merkel to listen to Trump and start weaning the country off Russian gas (and, yes, buy US gas instead), Germany would not face this existential crisis today. Instead, he laughed at the US president on camera, and is now enjoying a quiet retirement in Saarland (and, no doubt has no worries about whether he will be able to get gas to heat his home this winter). *The German crisis is 100% self-inflicted*.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    There is a crisis, but it is hardly "existential", yet. Self inflicted? How so? Because nobody could predict the future? My "seriously" comment was a reaction to a post of what basically is a meme in a rather serious discussion. As far the "German" crisis goes, isn't it rather a European, and one could make the case, global energy crisis? Compounded by a global economy heading for a recession (the US are already in one based on two quarters with negative GDP growth) caused by too much cheap money and staggering inflation due to supply short falls caused by Covid? But yeah, if Germany would have bought US gas instead of Russian one all would be good... By the way, Nord Stream 2 never went live over this. Before any of the current mess happened. You want to blame someone, blame Putin to do something the USSR was too smart to do during the cold war.
    - 4y ago

menotyou 4y ago

The whole issue is self inflicted by the German government. So far Russia adhered to the supply contracts. The stakes are high for Russia here. If Russia would not adhere to the contract even in these times, other contract partners like India and China would likely reconsider their long term contracts. It was Europe which decided not to by cheap Russian gas anymore and to ground their own economy. Instead Europa has to buy gas now on the spot market for about ten times the price. So Russia is more than happy by adhering to the contract and watching Europe to inflicting the damage themselves. If the West would have decided to buy their NLG somewhere else 5 years ago, Russia would have invaded the Ukraine even with less considerations.

rich_sasha 4y ago
Russia is cutting deliveries quoting supposed technical problems, and demands unilateral changes to gas contracts, viz RUB payments. They also cut supplies to 0 for a number of European countries. I mean, i don't quite blame them, they started a war and the West is sending in military kit to kill their soldiers in Ukraine, but Russia is certainly not holding it's side of the contracts here. But it is indeed self inflicted as everyone warned Germany that this is how it will end. But hey gas was cheap for a while.
- origin_path 4y ago
  The only time supplies were cut to zero was for the annual maintenance which happens in the summer every single year, and the pipeline is always shut down for that. Go look at the history of Nord Stream flow rates (on their website) to see that this is true if you don't believe me. The technical problems are real. A western company (German even) received a compressor turbine, repaired it and then sat on it due to sanctions. Germany got the sanctions voided for that equipment and it was shipped it back to Russia. If the problems weren't real we can assume it would have been discovered at that point. Also remember that the whole point of imposing sanctions on Russia is to degrade their factories and ability to repair complex equipment! Industrial disruption due to inability to access foreign parts and repair services is exactly what the sanctions were meant to create and yet when it happens, media and government claim there can be no possible wear and tear on huge pieces of rapidly spinning equipment, so it must all be 4D chess. Russia did not "demand unilateral changes to gas contracts". It's the other way around. Europe sanctioned Russia and then stole all their EUR foreign reserves, an unprecedented and highly hostile move. Because Russia could no longer transact in EUR they said, OK, you'll have to pay us for gas in rubles. Given this they could theoretically have said you're violating your contracts which say you'll pay us in EUR, so we won't supply any gas until you un-sanction us, but they didn't. So, every claim you're making here is wrong and this can be checked against documented facts and sources that aren't connected to Russia. This is a core part of the problem with what's happening. The media lies and simply makes things up. People believe it anyway. Did Russiagate teach us nothing? What Russia is doing is bad but telling ourselves a bunch of nonsensical fairy tales will only make the situation worse.