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What's the large gap between labor force participation rate and unemployment rate? Is it the rising number of elderly people? https://www.bls.gov/news.release/
by robotresearcher 4y ago
What's the large gap between labor force participation rate and unemployment rate? Is it the rising number of elderly people?
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
- ckw 4y agoHere’s the graph limited to ages 25-54: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 The shape is the same, with a peak at ~1999. There is a large difference between the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate because the LFPR can’t be gamed. A stark way to think about it is to consider that, if every person currently looking for work were to fail to such an extent that they just gave up, the unemployment rate would drop to zero.
- robotresearcher 4y agoOK, makes sense. Using your preferred metric, we have about the same LFPR we had in 1980. It has gradually varied since then between about 81% and 85%. > The shape is the same, with a peak at ~1999. The trend is up since 2015, apart from the Covid dip. Automation and AI have not had a dramatic effect yet on LFPR. Maybe there's a tipping point to come.