6 ms·

Historical patterns and sustainability implications of worldwide bicycle use

51 points by benbreen 4y ago

adrianN 4y ago
I think an important datapoint would be urbanization and population density. If somebody lives in a dense neighborhood they're much more likely to be able to bike to where they want to go. Nationwide density is very misleading for countries where the population is concentrated in only a handful of urban areas. I wonder whether density data has sufficient quality to provide percentiles of density, say, 10km around each citizen.
- yvdriess 4y ago
  For some data sources, there's only city data available: > Since the bicycle and car trip shares from travel surveys are mainly for cities, we used the mean of city-level values as the corresponding national trip share, because the derived values appear in line with national values from other sources
- tpm 4y ago
  I grew up in a small town of 10k, mostly single family housing on relatively small plots. At the time most people didn't have cars and even old women biked to the church (and old men to the pub). Those who did not use the bike could walk, it took longer but was still possible because the shops, services, hospital, schools and offices/factories were close by. Only those who worked or studied in nearby towns used cars or buses/trains. Because of this, I think the most important variable is the availability and affordability of cars. Everything else follows.
  - adrianN 4y ago
    That's a good point. Over a few decades the availability of cars naturally destroys the usefulness of other modes of transportation unless there is active effort to prevent these effects. Once most people have a car, small local shops aren't really viable anymore, for example. Too many people drive to the more convenient big shop that is further away.
    - tpm 4y ago
      Also known as a radical monopoly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_monopoly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_monopoly
    - midoridensha 4y ago
      On top of that, as everything gets rebuilt to be more convenient for cars, this makes it too inconvenient for walking or cycling, because now there's huge parking lots everywhere, the streets (or stroads) are widened for all the car traffic, crossing these streets is now dangerous because of all the traffic, walking or cycling anywhere is dangerous and miserable because of all the noise and pollution from all the car traffic, etc. Cars only really work with walking and biking when a very small portion of the population has and uses cars. If you make your city so that everyone can conveniently have a car, that becomes the only convenient way of getting around.
      - armada651 4y ago
        I live in the dutch city of Eindhoven and it's both convenient to have a car and convenient to ride a bicycle. This is possible as long as you invest as much in bicycle infrastructure as you do in car infrastructure. When a road becomes too wide to cross by bicycle the city here either builds a wide bicycle tunnel or a suspended bicycle roundabout. Those types of infrastructure are expensive, but it's the kind of thing you get if you don't put all of the city's infrastructure budget into one mode of transportation. What does a suspended bicycle roundabout look like? Have some pictures: https://imgur.com/a/08RJEsk https://imgur.com/a/08RJEsk Here's the location: https://goo.gl/maps/pBTFJGr9sbVHZeDT6 https://goo.gl/maps/pBTFJGr9sbVHZeDT6 Here's an example of a bicycle tunnel: https://goo.gl/maps/GzAvRCMi1BoxLXgdA https://goo.gl/maps/GzAvRCMi1BoxLXgdA And here it is from the cyclist's perspective: https://goo.gl/maps/mzogX37mqRqrK1JY8 https://goo.gl/maps/mzogX37mqRqrK1JY8 And we also have bicycle roundabouts with tunnels: https://goo.gl/maps/ui28SMbKbXjbvevr5 https://goo.gl/maps/ui28SMbKbXjbvevr5 Did you accidentally cut a freeway through your city? Just build a bicycle bridge over it: https://goo.gl/maps/WqLgJdhsTsr5sufE9 https://goo.gl/maps/WqLgJdhsTsr5sufE9 Of course you do need to make sure that there are actually places worthwhile going to within a convenient cycling distance. Which involves building lots of multi-family housing at the edges of downtown. With shops located within those neighborhoods. Rather than huge suburbs with exclusively single-family homes requiring a car to even do grocery shopping.
- fyvhbhn 4y ago
  It doesn't need to be a dense neighborhood, but one that give you all you need to live. Some city designers chose to make areas that are businesses only and living only - about the worst you can do for bike- and walkability
- xvedejas 4y ago
  A common measure for this is called "population-weighted population density", which more or less tries to capture the average local density that each person experiences.
dr_dshiv 4y ago
The point that might be missed is that it is more fun and more healthy and more convenient to live in a bike culture city. Driving and parking kind of sucks—there is such a wonderful flow in bike transportation. In other words, it isn’t a personal trade-off for sustainability; rather, it is a win-win.
- IMTDb 4y ago
  > it is more fun and more healthy and more convenient to live in a bike culture city When its 18:30 in November, when weather is cold, dark and raining I don't see anyone enjoying the fun and convenience of the existing bike lanes, why ? Similarly, I don't really see bikes being used to carry the weekly groceries for a family of 4, are they reserved for the people who can afford to go shopping every day and just have to carry few items ?
  - drekipus 4y ago
    > people who can afford to go shopping every day. There isn't an entrance fee to go to the shops. It doesn't cost more the more you go there.
  - pastacacioepepe 4y ago
    I mean people definitely didn't buy groceries before cars existed, right? Obviously if your area is an asphalth wasteland where you have to ride miles to get to the closest mall, bicycles won't work well. That's something that can be changed though. You know that before cars became the de facto mean of private transportation, the streets belonged to the people and kids could freely play outside? That is something we completely forgot, now that we live in post apocalyptic concrete wastelands where simply existing and walking around puts you at danger of being crashed by a vehicle.
  - throwaway329043 4y ago
    18:30 in November on a rainy day, I will absolutely be using my bike to commute to and from work (I'm Dutch). Is it enjoyable? Not really. Is it better than standing in a traffic jam for two hours? Absolutely. Plus on nice days (plenty of those in November, hetregentbijnanooit.nl) you get some nice exercise. Also for groceries. My mum used to do them for a family of 5 with saddle bags.
midoridensha 4y ago
This article seems to be politically biased BS. It goes into where most bicycles are made, yet completely leaves out Taiwan, which is a huge manufacturer of bicycles (including most of the high-end carbon fiber ones). Giant is the largest manufacturer of bicycles in the entire world, and is a Taiwan company: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_Bicycles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_Bicycles Instead, it names "China" as the #1 producer by far. Taiwan is a separate nation.
- tokai 4y ago
  Giant also produces bikes in main land China. On top of that is the carbon bike market quite small compared to casual alloy bikes. It's pretty shitty to argue that something BS without providing a single datapoint for the contrary. Just the internal yearly market for bikes in china is larger than the Taiwan population. It would be extremely surprising if Taiwan is even got close to the production output of China.
  - midoridensha 4y ago
    It's not just carbon bikes; e-bikes are also a huge export from Taiwan: https://cyclingindustry.news/taiwan-export-figures-analysis/ https://cyclingindustry.news/taiwan-export-figures-analysis/ The e-bike market, unlike carbon sports bikes, is rather huge, and growing fast.
    - tokai 4y ago
      Your link shows some pretty low sales numbers. Not even 1 mio. units sold in 2018. While the E-bike production in China the same year was over 30 mio. I'm not saying that Taiwan is not a big bike producing country. But comparison to the total world market of all categories of bikes, their output is not world leading. Just because you are personally into Taiwan bike production doesn't make it fair to call researchers politically biased (especially with your bias so openly on display).
wzwy 4y ago
> First, the bicycle stock data are difficult to obtain directly from statistics because most countries do not have bicycle registration system like that of cars. I didn’t know that bicycle registration is a thing in some countries, though it does make sense why it’s required when I think about it. Where I live, if your bike is stolen, you’ll just have to pray that your bicycle is unique enough, because like most cyclists, you probably didn’t bother to remember any of their bike’s identifying id. And considering how much of a mess the government is right now, setting up a bicycle registry let alone any other bicycle-promoting initiatives are probably never considered. It’s a shame because cycling is fun, but if you’re a risk-averse, you’re limited to only a few safe cycling spots.
- midoridensha 4y ago
  We have bicycle registration in Tokyo. Cops will sometimes stop people and check that they aren't riding a stolen bicycle, and if your bicycle is reported stolen and recovered, they'll bring it back to you. Registration costs about USD$5. Tons of people bicycle here just to get around, including mothers with small children. They have bicycles which have 2 child seats. In newer areas, there's bicycle parking lots everywhere: in apartment towers, at the mall, at the grocery store, etc. Bike parking lots don't take up much space unlike car parking lots. In older areas, people just park wherever: on the sidewalk in front of the convenience store, on the side of the street, etc.
- Xylakant 4y ago
  You don’t need to rely on the government in all places. Cycle registration is available, but not mandatory in germany. The ADFC (German cycling club) offers it and they basically engrave a combination of initials, birthday and city into the frame with a high-vis sticker https://www.adfc.de/artikel/fahrrad-codierung/ https://www.adfc.de/artikel/fahrrad-codierung/. Police offers similar services too, but since the encoding scheme is standardized, they‘ll know how to decode the sticker when a bike is found.
- djrobstep 4y ago
  If you're worried about bike theft, there's an easy solution - just buy a cheap bike.
Lio 4y ago
In my bike club it’s a standing joke that bike ownership is governed by two rules: Right number of bikes = n+1 where n is the number you currently own. Limited by: n = S-1 where S is the number of bikes that would cause a separation from your spouse. I own 6 bikes right now and want another. My best friend used to keep one bike in the boot of his car so his wife wouldn’t see it[1]. He’d then switch it with another every winter and spring[2]. We both own cars and drive most days, so these two things don’t seem that related. I would like to cycle commute more. 1. What really makes me laugh about this is, he chose the same paint scheme because that’s the only thing she notices; 1 is a winter road bike and the other a TT bike. 2. Until it all came out in the pub; she thought it was funny too. :D
- garte 4y ago
  You managed to combine sexism with useless consumerism while missing the point of the article entirely: owning 6 bikes while still using your car for the most part is not sustainable and might even hinder bike adoption in the long run. So why would you be in a bike club again?
  - drekipus 4y ago
    "sorry guys, I've got to leave the club, some guy on the internet gave me the run down. Yes I know I enjoy it but we can't let people be mad on the internet."
    - 11235813213455 4y ago
      what part of "sustainability" do you not understand?
  - Lio 4y ago
    Sexism? Where? You will please note that the deliberate use of the term "spouse" is genderless. My friend just happens to be married to a woman that doesn't cycle. There really is no need to seek offence where none is given. It cheapens any further discussion. Since you ask, I'm in a bike club because I like to ride, race and tour bikes with friends in my spare time. I've just finished a bike tour where about half the group where women. They also collect bikes just like me. Just like my friend, not all their partners ride or have any interest in cycling either. I have 6 bikes because: a) I've been riding a very long time and I tend not to throw things away. b) different bikes serve very different purposes. i.e. I don't commute on my TT bike and I don't ride my Brompton folding bike on single track. As for sustainability, I suggest you look at the actual impact of owning a few old bikes vs say, having even one pet dog, cat or child. These are several orders of magnitude worse.
aaron695 4y ago
wikitopian 4y ago
I understand why people would rather not talk about the actual reasons why bicycling and public transportation aren't popular in places without high social trust. It's a very awkward conversation. But it mystifies me that people insist on still promoting bicycles and public transportation without addressing the real reason many places rely on private passenger cars. What's the point of incessantly henpecking people who clearly and obviously can't turn to bicycling and public transportation on account of obvious logistical and safety issues?

51 points by benbreen 4y ago

I think an important datapoint would be urbanization and population density. If somebody lives in a dense neighborhood they're much more likely to be able to bike to where they want to go. Nationwide density is very misleading for countries where the population is concentrated in only a handful of urban areas. I wonder whether density data has sufficient quality to provide percentiles of density, say, 10km around each citizen.

yvdriess 4y ago
For some data sources, there's only city data available: > Since the bicycle and car trip shares from travel surveys are mainly for cities, we used the mean of city-level values as the corresponding national trip share, because the derived values appear in line with national values from other sources
tpm 4y ago
I grew up in a small town of 10k, mostly single family housing on relatively small plots. At the time most people didn't have cars and even old women biked to the church (and old men to the pub). Those who did not use the bike could walk, it took longer but was still possible because the shops, services, hospital, schools and offices/factories were close by. Only those who worked or studied in nearby towns used cars or buses/trains. Because of this, I think the most important variable is the availability and affordability of cars. Everything else follows.
- adrianN 4y ago
  That's a good point. Over a few decades the availability of cars naturally destroys the usefulness of other modes of transportation unless there is active effort to prevent these effects. Once most people have a car, small local shops aren't really viable anymore, for example. Too many people drive to the more convenient big shop that is further away.
  - tpm 4y ago
    Also known as a radical monopoly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_monopoly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_monopoly
  - midoridensha 4y ago
    On top of that, as everything gets rebuilt to be more convenient for cars, this makes it too inconvenient for walking or cycling, because now there's huge parking lots everywhere, the streets (or stroads) are widened for all the car traffic, crossing these streets is now dangerous because of all the traffic, walking or cycling anywhere is dangerous and miserable because of all the noise and pollution from all the car traffic, etc. Cars only really work with walking and biking when a very small portion of the population has and uses cars. If you make your city so that everyone can conveniently have a car, that becomes the only convenient way of getting around.
    - armada651 4y ago
      I live in the dutch city of Eindhoven and it's both convenient to have a car and convenient to ride a bicycle. This is possible as long as you invest as much in bicycle infrastructure as you do in car infrastructure. When a road becomes too wide to cross by bicycle the city here either builds a wide bicycle tunnel or a suspended bicycle roundabout. Those types of infrastructure are expensive, but it's the kind of thing you get if you don't put all of the city's infrastructure budget into one mode of transportation. What does a suspended bicycle roundabout look like? Have some pictures: https://imgur.com/a/08RJEsk https://imgur.com/a/08RJEsk Here's the location: https://goo.gl/maps/pBTFJGr9sbVHZeDT6 https://goo.gl/maps/pBTFJGr9sbVHZeDT6 Here's an example of a bicycle tunnel: https://goo.gl/maps/GzAvRCMi1BoxLXgdA https://goo.gl/maps/GzAvRCMi1BoxLXgdA And here it is from the cyclist's perspective: https://goo.gl/maps/mzogX37mqRqrK1JY8 https://goo.gl/maps/mzogX37mqRqrK1JY8 And we also have bicycle roundabouts with tunnels: https://goo.gl/maps/ui28SMbKbXjbvevr5 https://goo.gl/maps/ui28SMbKbXjbvevr5 Did you accidentally cut a freeway through your city? Just build a bicycle bridge over it: https://goo.gl/maps/WqLgJdhsTsr5sufE9 https://goo.gl/maps/WqLgJdhsTsr5sufE9 Of course you do need to make sure that there are actually places worthwhile going to within a convenient cycling distance. Which involves building lots of multi-family housing at the edges of downtown. With shops located within those neighborhoods. Rather than huge suburbs with exclusively single-family homes requiring a car to even do grocery shopping.
fyvhbhn 4y ago
It doesn't need to be a dense neighborhood, but one that give you all you need to live. Some city designers chose to make areas that are businesses only and living only - about the worst you can do for bike- and walkability
xvedejas 4y ago
A common measure for this is called "population-weighted population density", which more or less tries to capture the average local density that each person experiences.

dr_dshiv 4y ago

The point that might be missed is that it is more fun and more healthy and more convenient to live in a bike culture city. Driving and parking kind of sucks—there is such a wonderful flow in bike transportation. In other words, it isn’t a personal trade-off for sustainability; rather, it is a win-win.

IMTDb 4y ago
> it is more fun and more healthy and more convenient to live in a bike culture city When its 18:30 in November, when weather is cold, dark and raining I don't see anyone enjoying the fun and convenience of the existing bike lanes, why ? Similarly, I don't really see bikes being used to carry the weekly groceries for a family of 4, are they reserved for the people who can afford to go shopping every day and just have to carry few items ?
- drekipus 4y ago
  > people who can afford to go shopping every day. There isn't an entrance fee to go to the shops. It doesn't cost more the more you go there.
- pastacacioepepe 4y ago
  I mean people definitely didn't buy groceries before cars existed, right? Obviously if your area is an asphalth wasteland where you have to ride miles to get to the closest mall, bicycles won't work well. That's something that can be changed though. You know that before cars became the de facto mean of private transportation, the streets belonged to the people and kids could freely play outside? That is something we completely forgot, now that we live in post apocalyptic concrete wastelands where simply existing and walking around puts you at danger of being crashed by a vehicle.
- throwaway329043 4y ago
  18:30 in November on a rainy day, I will absolutely be using my bike to commute to and from work (I'm Dutch). Is it enjoyable? Not really. Is it better than standing in a traffic jam for two hours? Absolutely. Plus on nice days (plenty of those in November, hetregentbijnanooit.nl) you get some nice exercise. Also for groceries. My mum used to do them for a family of 5 with saddle bags.

midoridensha 4y ago

This article seems to be politically biased BS. It goes into where most bicycles are made, yet completely leaves out Taiwan, which is a huge manufacturer of bicycles (including most of the high-end carbon fiber ones). Giant is the largest manufacturer of bicycles in the entire world, and is a Taiwan company: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_Bicycles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_Bicycles Instead, it names "China" as the #1 producer by far. Taiwan is a separate nation.

tokai 4y ago
Giant also produces bikes in main land China. On top of that is the carbon bike market quite small compared to casual alloy bikes. It's pretty shitty to argue that something BS without providing a single datapoint for the contrary. Just the internal yearly market for bikes in china is larger than the Taiwan population. It would be extremely surprising if Taiwan is even got close to the production output of China.
- midoridensha 4y ago
  It's not just carbon bikes; e-bikes are also a huge export from Taiwan: https://cyclingindustry.news/taiwan-export-figures-analysis/ https://cyclingindustry.news/taiwan-export-figures-analysis/ The e-bike market, unlike carbon sports bikes, is rather huge, and growing fast.
  - tokai 4y ago
    Your link shows some pretty low sales numbers. Not even 1 mio. units sold in 2018. While the E-bike production in China the same year was over 30 mio. I'm not saying that Taiwan is not a big bike producing country. But comparison to the total world market of all categories of bikes, their output is not world leading. Just because you are personally into Taiwan bike production doesn't make it fair to call researchers politically biased (especially with your bias so openly on display).

wzwy 4y ago

> First, the bicycle stock data are difficult to obtain directly from statistics because most countries do not have bicycle registration system like that of cars. I didn’t know that bicycle registration is a thing in some countries, though it does make sense why it’s required when I think about it. Where I live, if your bike is stolen, you’ll just have to pray that your bicycle is unique enough, because like most cyclists, you probably didn’t bother to remember any of their bike’s identifying id. And considering how much of a mess the government is right now, setting up a bicycle registry let alone any other bicycle-promoting initiatives are probably never considered. It’s a shame because cycling is fun, but if you’re a risk-averse, you’re limited to only a few safe cycling spots.

midoridensha 4y ago
We have bicycle registration in Tokyo. Cops will sometimes stop people and check that they aren't riding a stolen bicycle, and if your bicycle is reported stolen and recovered, they'll bring it back to you. Registration costs about USD$5. Tons of people bicycle here just to get around, including mothers with small children. They have bicycles which have 2 child seats. In newer areas, there's bicycle parking lots everywhere: in apartment towers, at the mall, at the grocery store, etc. Bike parking lots don't take up much space unlike car parking lots. In older areas, people just park wherever: on the sidewalk in front of the convenience store, on the side of the street, etc.
Xylakant 4y ago
You don’t need to rely on the government in all places. Cycle registration is available, but not mandatory in germany. The ADFC (German cycling club) offers it and they basically engrave a combination of initials, birthday and city into the frame with a high-vis sticker https://www.adfc.de/artikel/fahrrad-codierung/ https://www.adfc.de/artikel/fahrrad-codierung/. Police offers similar services too, but since the encoding scheme is standardized, they‘ll know how to decode the sticker when a bike is found.
djrobstep 4y ago
If you're worried about bike theft, there's an easy solution - just buy a cheap bike.

Lio 4y ago

In my bike club it’s a standing joke that bike ownership is governed by two rules: Right number of bikes = n+1 where n is the number you currently own. Limited by: n = S-1 where S is the number of bikes that would cause a separation from your spouse. I own 6 bikes right now and want another. My best friend used to keep one bike in the boot of his car so his wife wouldn’t see it[1]. He’d then switch it with another every winter and spring[2]. We both own cars and drive most days, so these two things don’t seem that related. I would like to cycle commute more. 1. What really makes me laugh about this is, he chose the same paint scheme because that’s the only thing she notices; 1 is a winter road bike and the other a TT bike. 2. Until it all came out in the pub; she thought it was funny too. :D

garte 4y ago
You managed to combine sexism with useless consumerism while missing the point of the article entirely: owning 6 bikes while still using your car for the most part is not sustainable and might even hinder bike adoption in the long run. So why would you be in a bike club again?
- drekipus 4y ago
  "sorry guys, I've got to leave the club, some guy on the internet gave me the run down. Yes I know I enjoy it but we can't let people be mad on the internet."
  - 11235813213455 4y ago
    what part of "sustainability" do you not understand?
- Lio 4y ago
  Sexism? Where? You will please note that the deliberate use of the term "spouse" is genderless. My friend just happens to be married to a woman that doesn't cycle. There really is no need to seek offence where none is given. It cheapens any further discussion. Since you ask, I'm in a bike club because I like to ride, race and tour bikes with friends in my spare time. I've just finished a bike tour where about half the group where women. They also collect bikes just like me. Just like my friend, not all their partners ride or have any interest in cycling either. I have 6 bikes because: a) I've been riding a very long time and I tend not to throw things away. b) different bikes serve very different purposes. i.e. I don't commute on my TT bike and I don't ride my Brompton folding bike on single track. As for sustainability, I suggest you look at the actual impact of owning a few old bikes vs say, having even one pet dog, cat or child. These are several orders of magnitude worse.

aaron695 4y ago

wikitopian 4y ago

I understand why people would rather not talk about the actual reasons why bicycling and public transportation aren't popular in places without high social trust. It's a very awkward conversation. But it mystifies me that people insist on still promoting bicycles and public transportation without addressing the real reason many places rely on private passenger cars. What's the point of incessantly henpecking people who clearly and obviously can't turn to bicycling and public transportation on account of obvious logistical and safety issues?