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Just don't discount their huge advantage in streaming market share and subscriber counts that still exists, and don't pretend like they don't have a wide variet

by dangus 4y ago

Just don't discount their huge advantage in streaming market share and subscriber counts that still exists, and don't pretend like they don't have a wide variety of content available. I point out some of my beefs with the bearishness on Netflix in another comment on this thread. https://www.cordcuttersnews.com/report-hbo-max-overtakes-disney-and-hulu-as-the-third-largest-streaming-service-in-the-u-s/ https://www.cordcuttersnews.com/report-hbo-max-overtakes-dis...

dasil003 4y ago
That's not subscriber data, that's JustWatch "measured interest in SVOD services" data—in other words, people that use JustWatch tend to use more Netflix. Well, no shit, because people go to HBO and Disney+ for memorable shows and franchises that they don't need to look up on JustWatch. Netflix has Stranger Things and then falls off very fast. If you put their production investment up against Disney+ and HBO it would not look good (I haven't looked at the numbers, but I spent 10 years as a founder in the streaming industry and I feel confident making that wild guess). Here's a more reasonable comparison (not fully apples to apples) that shows Disney + having passed Netflix: https://deadline.com/2022/08/disney-just-passed-netflix-in-total-streaming-subscribers-1235089361/ https://deadline.com/2022/08/disney-just-passed-netflix-in-t... Disney+ launched less than 3 years ago. They are also a pretty bad employer by tech standards, but they've proven content is king, and Disney, HBO and a host of others are much better producers than Netflix. With the stock price down, and the lack of warchest that diversified companies like Disney, Amazon and even Hulu have, Netflix is in a rough spot.
- dangus 4y ago
  I think the idea that Netflix would ever remain the largest service was always unrealistic, so when people see that Netflix is losing market share they seem to be really bearish on Netflix's business decisions, content, and long-term survival. In reality, Netflix losing market share was always going to happen with complete inevitability no matter how well they performed. Netflix is a really solid place for content and will remain one of the top players in the market for a long time. The market has rapidly grown and there is plenty of revenue to go around. Anyone predicting Netflix's eventual downfall or that their business is in serious peril is dramatizing the situation. Yes, of course Disney has more subscribers across their three services. They are a gigantic conglomerate company and easily the most successful in their industry. Being "not Disney" doesn't put you in a "rough spot," that just makes you "every other company." > Netflix has Stranger Things and then falls off very fast. Hard, hard disagree. I hear tons of of discussion around recent shows like Squid Game, Bridgerton, Selling Sunset, The Witcher, and Money Heist. Saying that Netflix only has Stranger Things is kind of like saying Nintendo only has Mario. Netflix also still has the viral hype marketing strategy perfected. Finally, a note about Prime Video: it's nowhere near as popular as Netflix when you look at streaming minutes [1] and their subscriber numbers are muddled with people who are subscribed because they want overnight shipping and Amazon Fresh/Whole Foods deliveries. In my view, if Amazon gained more of a serious online shopping competitor (e.g., let's say Walmart started taking major market share from Amazon), their subscriber base would erode. I don't think Prime Video makes the kind of profit margin that its competitors do: it's there to help the no-margins logistics juggernaut stay in the black by giving subscribers an extra little nudge not to cancel. [1] https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/22/06/27771738/here-are-the-most-watched-amazon-prime-video-series-in-the-last-two-years-how-they-stack-up https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/22/06/2777173...
  - dasil003 4y ago
    > Hard, hard disagree. I hear tons of of discussion around recent shows like Squid Game, Bridgerton, Selling Sunset, The Witcher, and Money Heist. Saying that Netflix only has Stranger Things is kind of like saying Nintendo only has Mario. Netflix also still has the viral hype marketing strategy perfected. Sure they put out some good stuff, but those are neither money printing franchises like Star Wars, Marvel, or Pixar, nor are they critical darling genre defining series like The Sopranos, Game of Thrones or The Wire. For all the money they've spent on original content, they're just not in the same league as the big boys. They are data-driven / engineering-driven, which leads to kneecapping anything too creative (eg. The OA, Tuca & Bertie), and sanding off all the rough edges (https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake3j5/why-does-everything-on-netflix-look-like-that https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake3j5/why-does-everything-o...). And their UX? The algo-driven engagement designed to hide the weakness of their library. This works until it doesn't, and frankly I've long since stopped browsing Netflix. I only watch something there once I've already determined it's on Netflix. > I don't think Prime Video makes the kind of profit margin that its competitors do: it's there to help the no-margins logistics juggernaut stay in the black by giving subscribers an extra little nudge not to cancel. Yes, this is absolutely true, and this is why Netflix is in a particularly difficult situation. How are they supposed to compete with a loss-leader for a business the size of Amazon Prime?
2muchcoffeeman 4y ago
I think author is somewhat correct. You are going to keep me around in a couple of ways: - Stuff I like enough to watch 20 seasons of. - New original content (that doesn't keep getting cancelled) - Good old nostalgia and world building eg Star Wars, Marvel, GoT. Netflix doesn't really have any of these or it's inconsistent. And even the good original shows tend to have logical endings. Personally I like the resurrected 80s cartoons Voltron, He-Man. I'd start my subscription again for season 2 of the 2011 Thundercats reboot and reboots of all the other 80s and 90s cartoons.

by dangus 4y ago

dasil003 4y ago

That's not subscriber data, that's JustWatch "measured interest in SVOD services" data—in other words, people that use JustWatch tend to use more Netflix. Well, no shit, because people go to HBO and Disney+ for memorable shows and franchises that they don't need to look up on JustWatch. Netflix has Stranger Things and then falls off very fast. If you put their production investment up against Disney+ and HBO it would not look good (I haven't looked at the numbers, but I spent 10 years as a founder in the streaming industry and I feel confident making that wild guess). Here's a more reasonable comparison (not fully apples to apples) that shows Disney + having passed Netflix: https://deadline.com/2022/08/disney-just-passed-netflix-in-total-streaming-subscribers-1235089361/ https://deadline.com/2022/08/disney-just-passed-netflix-in-t... Disney+ launched less than 3 years ago. They are also a pretty bad employer by tech standards, but they've proven content is king, and Disney, HBO and a host of others are much better producers than Netflix. With the stock price down, and the lack of warchest that diversified companies like Disney, Amazon and even Hulu have, Netflix is in a rough spot.

dangus 4y ago
I think the idea that Netflix would ever remain the largest service was always unrealistic, so when people see that Netflix is losing market share they seem to be really bearish on Netflix's business decisions, content, and long-term survival. In reality, Netflix losing market share was always going to happen with complete inevitability no matter how well they performed. Netflix is a really solid place for content and will remain one of the top players in the market for a long time. The market has rapidly grown and there is plenty of revenue to go around. Anyone predicting Netflix's eventual downfall or that their business is in serious peril is dramatizing the situation. Yes, of course Disney has more subscribers across their three services. They are a gigantic conglomerate company and easily the most successful in their industry. Being "not Disney" doesn't put you in a "rough spot," that just makes you "every other company." > Netflix has Stranger Things and then falls off very fast. Hard, hard disagree. I hear tons of of discussion around recent shows like Squid Game, Bridgerton, Selling Sunset, The Witcher, and Money Heist. Saying that Netflix only has Stranger Things is kind of like saying Nintendo only has Mario. Netflix also still has the viral hype marketing strategy perfected. Finally, a note about Prime Video: it's nowhere near as popular as Netflix when you look at streaming minutes [1] and their subscriber numbers are muddled with people who are subscribed because they want overnight shipping and Amazon Fresh/Whole Foods deliveries. In my view, if Amazon gained more of a serious online shopping competitor (e.g., let's say Walmart started taking major market share from Amazon), their subscriber base would erode. I don't think Prime Video makes the kind of profit margin that its competitors do: it's there to help the no-margins logistics juggernaut stay in the black by giving subscribers an extra little nudge not to cancel. [1] https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/22/06/27771738/here-are-the-most-watched-amazon-prime-video-series-in-the-last-two-years-how-they-stack-up https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/22/06/2777173...
- dasil003 4y ago
  > Hard, hard disagree. I hear tons of of discussion around recent shows like Squid Game, Bridgerton, Selling Sunset, The Witcher, and Money Heist. Saying that Netflix only has Stranger Things is kind of like saying Nintendo only has Mario. Netflix also still has the viral hype marketing strategy perfected. Sure they put out some good stuff, but those are neither money printing franchises like Star Wars, Marvel, or Pixar, nor are they critical darling genre defining series like The Sopranos, Game of Thrones or The Wire. For all the money they've spent on original content, they're just not in the same league as the big boys. They are data-driven / engineering-driven, which leads to kneecapping anything too creative (eg. The OA, Tuca & Bertie), and sanding off all the rough edges (https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake3j5/why-does-everything-on-netflix-look-like-that https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake3j5/why-does-everything-o...). And their UX? The algo-driven engagement designed to hide the weakness of their library. This works until it doesn't, and frankly I've long since stopped browsing Netflix. I only watch something there once I've already determined it's on Netflix. > I don't think Prime Video makes the kind of profit margin that its competitors do: it's there to help the no-margins logistics juggernaut stay in the black by giving subscribers an extra little nudge not to cancel. Yes, this is absolutely true, and this is why Netflix is in a particularly difficult situation. How are they supposed to compete with a loss-leader for a business the size of Amazon Prime?

2muchcoffeeman 4y ago

I think author is somewhat correct. You are going to keep me around in a couple of ways: - Stuff I like enough to watch 20 seasons of. - New original content (that doesn't keep getting cancelled) - Good old nostalgia and world building eg Star Wars, Marvel, GoT. Netflix doesn't really have any of these or it's inconsistent. And even the good original shows tend to have logical endings. Personally I like the resurrected 80s cartoons Voltron, He-Man. I'd start my subscription again for season 2 of the 2011 Thundercats reboot and reboots of all the other 80s and 90s cartoons.