As someone who lives in a hurricane prone area I hope you knocked on some wood after saying that. 75% of named storms occur after August 20th and NOAA still exp

As someone who lives in a hurricane prone area I hope you knocked on some wood after saying that. 75% of named storms occur after August 20th and NOAA still expects and above average season. There is some evidence that the high wind shear and dry air that has been impeding storm formation is starting to subside. I also think this comment makes the parent's point about probability distributions being difficult for people to understand. Global warming doesn't mean every hurricane season will be more intense than the one before it. Just that the probability distribution will shift. That might mean more intense seasons on average it might not. I'm not enough of an expert on it to know, but the consensus seems to be that they will become more intense on average. I could see a situation where a warming environment could lead to more of the wind shear and dry air that is keeping formation down this year though. Either way one below average hurricane season after 2 really active ones doesn't tell you that much.