3 ms·

You mean like how the Atlantic hurricane season is abnormally quiet?

bumby 4y ago
There's a higher comment that addresses this. It can effect the overall range of events, meaning both ends of the spectrum. A clearer example is that is can increase the probability flooding as well as droughts; they don't have to be mutually exclusive.
- TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
  Yes. It's always been about more extreme weather - more droughts, more floods, more tornadoes, more hurricanes, more extreme storms, heavier snow storms, and so on. Most areas will get warmer, some areas will get colder. Sometimes they'll alternate. Some years and seasons will be less extreme than others, some will seem normal, but the trend will be clear. Systems which were built for the old normal will fail more and more frequently, and at some point they'll stop working permanently.
- WorldMaker 4y ago
  Same with it can cause unseasonably cold days and unseasonably warm days, those aren't mutually exclusive and the range of extremes is expanding in many regions. Which remains a big reason to avoid "global warming" as a term anymore when discussing climate change. Even extreme winter storms are a consequence of climate change and the additional energy in the climate affecting all types of weather. Early climatologists phrased it as a growth in heat in the planet and that earned the nickname "global warming", which is correct enough on a long enough scale, but the real problem of climate change is that it is a ton of additional energy (per Thermodynamics Laws same thing, different side of the equation) in the climate. (For instance, additional energy in the case of winter storms meaning stronger winds which mean lower wind chill temperatures and more precipitation [snow].)
gadders 4y ago
As you will find, climate change is unfalsifiable.
- TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
  Climate change is completely falsifiable. All you have to do to falsify it is prove this graph is inaccurate. Good luck. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...
  - seti0Cha 4y ago
    Comments like this do more harm than good. No, that's not all they have to do. Somebody will come along presently with another graph that shows how this graph is misleading and declare victory. This comment is harmful because it strawmans your own point and on top of that, it's smug. It's the opposite of convincing.
- anigbrowl 4y ago
  Interestingly, the greater the number and quality of our observations, the more casually such observations are dismissed on the basis that we didn't always have such observational capacity. It's alleged in turn that observed events have been taking place the whole time, but weren't measurable, at least not with such accuracy as to be useful.
importantbrian 4y ago
As someone who lives in a hurricane prone area I hope you knocked on some wood after saying that. 75% of named storms occur after August 20th and NOAA still expects and above average season. There is some evidence that the high wind shear and dry air that has been impeding storm formation is starting to subside. I also think this comment makes the parent's point about probability distributions being difficult for people to understand. Global warming doesn't mean every hurricane season will be more intense than the one before it. Just that the probability distribution will shift. That might mean more intense seasons on average it might not. I'm not enough of an expert on it to know, but the consensus seems to be that they will become more intense on average. I could see a situation where a warming environment could lead to more of the wind shear and dry air that is keeping formation down this year though. Either way one below average hurricane season after 2 really active ones doesn't tell you that much.
- kurupt213 4y ago
  >doesn’t tell you that much I agree
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

There's a higher comment that addresses this. It can effect the overall range of events, meaning both ends of the spectrum. A clearer example is that is can increase the probability flooding as well as droughts; they don't have to be mutually exclusive.

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
Yes. It's always been about more extreme weather - more droughts, more floods, more tornadoes, more hurricanes, more extreme storms, heavier snow storms, and so on. Most areas will get warmer, some areas will get colder. Sometimes they'll alternate. Some years and seasons will be less extreme than others, some will seem normal, but the trend will be clear. Systems which were built for the old normal will fail more and more frequently, and at some point they'll stop working permanently.
WorldMaker 4y ago
Same with it can cause unseasonably cold days and unseasonably warm days, those aren't mutually exclusive and the range of extremes is expanding in many regions. Which remains a big reason to avoid "global warming" as a term anymore when discussing climate change. Even extreme winter storms are a consequence of climate change and the additional energy in the climate affecting all types of weather. Early climatologists phrased it as a growth in heat in the planet and that earned the nickname "global warming", which is correct enough on a long enough scale, but the real problem of climate change is that it is a ton of additional energy (per Thermodynamics Laws same thing, different side of the equation) in the climate. (For instance, additional energy in the case of winter storms meaning stronger winds which mean lower wind chill temperatures and more precipitation [snow].)

gadders 4y ago

As you will find, climate change is unfalsifiable.

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
Climate change is completely falsifiable. All you have to do to falsify it is prove this graph is inaccurate. Good luck. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...
- seti0Cha 4y ago
  Comments like this do more harm than good. No, that's not all they have to do. Somebody will come along presently with another graph that shows how this graph is misleading and declare victory. This comment is harmful because it strawmans your own point and on top of that, it's smug. It's the opposite of convincing.
anigbrowl 4y ago
Interestingly, the greater the number and quality of our observations, the more casually such observations are dismissed on the basis that we didn't always have such observational capacity. It's alleged in turn that observed events have been taking place the whole time, but weren't measurable, at least not with such accuracy as to be useful.

importantbrian 4y ago

As someone who lives in a hurricane prone area I hope you knocked on some wood after saying that. 75% of named storms occur after August 20th and NOAA still expects and above average season. There is some evidence that the high wind shear and dry air that has been impeding storm formation is starting to subside. I also think this comment makes the parent's point about probability distributions being difficult for people to understand. Global warming doesn't mean every hurricane season will be more intense than the one before it. Just that the probability distribution will shift. That might mean more intense seasons on average it might not. I'm not enough of an expert on it to know, but the consensus seems to be that they will become more intense on average. I could see a situation where a warming environment could lead to more of the wind shear and dry air that is keeping formation down this year though. Either way one below average hurricane season after 2 really active ones doesn't tell you that much.

kurupt213 4y ago
>doesn’t tell you that much I agree

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]