7 ms·

When a "100 year storm" starts happening every 2-3 years and devastating local economies, you can attribute that to climate change.

tedunangst 4y ago
Unless there are fewer than 100 places, you'd expect at least one 100 year storm somewhere every year.
- spywaregorilla 4y ago
  Well, do you think the parent comment meant 100 year storms anywhere, or did they mean in the same area, based on the context of what they said?
  - tedunangst 4y ago
    Are we still talking about Katrina? Has New Orleans been hit by five Katrinas since 2005?
    - selimthegrim 4y ago
      From insurance rates and lack of investment it would seem like it (I live here)
      - res0nat0r 4y ago
        Hopefully we're still not trying to be contrarians around climate change just because it's hard to imagine or scary, since it's obvious and affecting things around us every year. Another insurance company is leaving Florida: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/real-estate/os-bz-insurance-company-leaves-florida-20220825-iss6adgbarggdkgp7a3up2xqwi-story.html https://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/real-estate/os-bz-i... 1/3 of Pakistan is currently underwater: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-floods-un-appeal-aid-monsoon-climate-change-rcna45219 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-floods-un-appeal... Greenland: https://apnews.com/article/science-oceans-glaciers-greenland-climate-and-environment-9cd7662658ebbeaba05682352de8aa87 https://apnews.com/article/science-oceans-glaciers-greenland... > Greenland’s rapidly melting ice sheet will eventually raise global sea level by at least 10.6 inches (27 centimeters) -- more than twice as much as previously forecast — according to a study published Monday.
    - nostrademons 4y ago
      They didn't all directly hit New Orleans, but: Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Michael are all cat-5 hurricanes that have hit the U.S. Gulf Coast in the last 20 years. There have been 37 cat-5 hurricanes since record keeping began in 1851; of those, 8 happened during the 2000s and 6 more during the 2010s, so about 37% of recorded cat-5 hurricanes have happened in the last 20 years of this 170-year period.
- rightbyte 4y ago
  Your point is underrated. There are alot of sampling bias going around.
- simonh 4y ago
  That is correct, for any given area you’d expect one 100 year storm for that area roughly every hundred years. When you start seeing them in that area every 10 years or so, interspersed with occasional 1,000 year storms every few decades, that’s an indicator something is going badly wrong.
aperson_hello 4y ago
Absolutely. But not the individual storm. Just the frequency of those storms

tedunangst 4y ago

Unless there are fewer than 100 places, you'd expect at least one 100 year storm somewhere every year.

spywaregorilla 4y ago
Well, do you think the parent comment meant 100 year storms anywhere, or did they mean in the same area, based on the context of what they said?
- tedunangst 4y ago
  Are we still talking about Katrina? Has New Orleans been hit by five Katrinas since 2005?
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    From insurance rates and lack of investment it would seem like it (I live here)
    - res0nat0r 4y ago
      Hopefully we're still not trying to be contrarians around climate change just because it's hard to imagine or scary, since it's obvious and affecting things around us every year. Another insurance company is leaving Florida: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/real-estate/os-bz-insurance-company-leaves-florida-20220825-iss6adgbarggdkgp7a3up2xqwi-story.html https://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/real-estate/os-bz-i... 1/3 of Pakistan is currently underwater: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-floods-un-appeal-aid-monsoon-climate-change-rcna45219 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-floods-un-appeal... Greenland: https://apnews.com/article/science-oceans-glaciers-greenland-climate-and-environment-9cd7662658ebbeaba05682352de8aa87 https://apnews.com/article/science-oceans-glaciers-greenland... > Greenland’s rapidly melting ice sheet will eventually raise global sea level by at least 10.6 inches (27 centimeters) -- more than twice as much as previously forecast — according to a study published Monday.
  - nostrademons 4y ago
    They didn't all directly hit New Orleans, but: Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Michael are all cat-5 hurricanes that have hit the U.S. Gulf Coast in the last 20 years. There have been 37 cat-5 hurricanes since record keeping began in 1851; of those, 8 happened during the 2000s and 6 more during the 2010s, so about 37% of recorded cat-5 hurricanes have happened in the last 20 years of this 170-year period.
rightbyte 4y ago
Your point is underrated. There are alot of sampling bias going around.
simonh 4y ago
That is correct, for any given area you’d expect one 100 year storm for that area roughly every hundred years. When you start seeing them in that area every 10 years or so, interspersed with occasional 1,000 year storms every few decades, that’s an indicator something is going badly wrong.

aperson_hello 4y ago

Absolutely. But not the individual storm. Just the frequency of those storms