3 ms·

not to be less pessimistic, but is it 27cm this century or 27cm this millennium? I didnt find any timescale after a cursory glance at the paper but perhaps it d

not to be less pessimistic, but is it 27cm this century or 27cm this millennium? I didnt find any timescale after a cursory glance at the paper but perhaps it doesnt matter in the scientific or wider view? As a human being though.. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01441-2

lproven 4y ago
This century. In climate science circles, the cynical realists are now predicting far far worse than that. 2 deg C warming in the next decade, 7 deg C by end century, which is worse than the PETM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Therm... That took ~20K to happen. Our version is happening over ~50 years. 400x faster. We are highly likely to see over a metre sea level rise by mid-century, and if the West Antarctic Ice Shelf collapses and floats away, 5 metres. (16 feet for any Americans out there.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet The WAIS sits on rock that's under sea level. If the sea gets in and floats it, it doesn't need to melt. Ice cubes in your drink displace lots of water before they melt. It just needs to disintegrate and float out to see, and that is ~5m immediately. Easy reading explanation with diagrams: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-close-is-the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-to-a-tipping-point/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-close-is-the-west... Scientific explanation with diagrams: https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/44775 https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/44775 Main takeaway: it doesn't need to melt. Forget how long it takes to melt. That's not important. What is important is whether it's sitting on (fairly) dry rock, or is afloat. It would take about 12 days to stabilise worldwide. 3.3-5m sea level rise means about 9/10 of the great cities of the world, gone, flooded. The Netherlands, Denmark, and Bangladesh wiped off the map: just some more seabed. The main chokepoint at the exit of the WAIS to the sea is the Thwaites Glacier. That's breaking up fast since January this year: https://riskfrontiers.com/insights/accelerating-breakup-of-thwaites-glacier-in-antarctica-and-implications-for-rapid-sea-level-rise/ https://riskfrontiers.com/insights/accelerating-breakup-of-t...
lproven 4y ago
This blog post of mine from when the Thwaites really started crumbling may help. https://lproven.dreamwidth.org/2021/12/19/ https://lproven.dreamwidth.org/2021/12/19/

lproven 4y ago

This century. In climate science circles, the cynical realists are now predicting far far worse than that. 2 deg C warming in the next decade, 7 deg C by end century, which is worse than the PETM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Therm... That took ~20K to happen. Our version is happening over ~50 years. 400x faster. We are highly likely to see over a metre sea level rise by mid-century, and if the West Antarctic Ice Shelf collapses and floats away, 5 metres. (16 feet for any Americans out there.) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet The WAIS sits on rock that's under sea level. If the sea gets in and floats it, it doesn't need to melt. Ice cubes in your drink displace lots of water before they melt. It just needs to disintegrate and float out to see, and that is ~5m immediately. Easy reading explanation with diagrams: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-close-is-the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet-to-a-tipping-point/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-close-is-the-west... Scientific explanation with diagrams: https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/44775 https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/44775 Main takeaway: it doesn't need to melt. Forget how long it takes to melt. That's not important. What is important is whether it's sitting on (fairly) dry rock, or is afloat. It would take about 12 days to stabilise worldwide. 3.3-5m sea level rise means about 9/10 of the great cities of the world, gone, flooded. The Netherlands, Denmark, and Bangladesh wiped off the map: just some more seabed. The main chokepoint at the exit of the WAIS to the sea is the Thwaites Glacier. That's breaking up fast since January this year: https://riskfrontiers.com/insights/accelerating-breakup-of-thwaites-glacier-in-antarctica-and-implications-for-rapid-sea-level-rise/ https://riskfrontiers.com/insights/accelerating-breakup-of-t...

lproven 4y ago

This blog post of mine from when the Thwaites really started crumbling may help. https://lproven.dreamwidth.org/2021/12/19/ https://lproven.dreamwidth.org/2021/12/19/