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“Emperor Xi” needs to win elections to keep ruling, and destroying country’s economy isn’t particularly good way of achieving that. Embargo is a given; US is j

by trasz 4y ago

“Emperor Xi” needs to win elections to keep ruling, and destroying country’s economy isn’t particularly good way of achieving that. Embargo is a given; US is just waiting for opportunity. Sure, it wouldn’t be a total embargo, but it would be crippling anyway. Look at how China dropped their strategic cooperation with Russia, including areas that aren’t explicitly sanctioned. I don’t think Russia can survive their current war, and that serves as a nice example to others. Russia is very different from China. Comparing a superpower to “Nigeria with nukes” is a bit pointless, but one of the crucial differences is that Russians know they can’t expect anything good from their mafia state. Chinese - quite the opposite, they expect sustained rapid growth, like the past five decades. Another difference is that Chinese don’t seem very enthusiastic about wars, compared to Russians - or Americans. And no, they don’t have occupation of Taiwan in their doctrine. China has been repeatedly explaining they seek peaceful unification. And they seem fine playing the long game, ready to wait a couple of generations for it to happen.

Yizahi 4y ago
Xi would "win" "elections" this year, this would be a simple confirmation of his desire and not a problem for him. After that he will rule permanently, because no dictator can rescind power without facing a reaction from the successor. Taiwan occupation can happen at any time in the future, so elections, real or staged, won't interfere with it. Yes, invasion would cause recession, but it won't be framed like that in the media. The recession (maybe) would start before the invasion, then invasion will happen to cover it up and blame outside force (USA of course) for the economic hardships, and this actually works every time. And of course occupation would be peaceful. At least for the first 5 minutes. It would be a totally peaceful blockade on sea and air with a totally reasonable and peaceful demand to surrender all control of the island, disarm army and so on. And when treacherous evil Taiwanese will dare to treacherously attack the blockade forces, then China will be forced to a totally justified self defense. Just like ruzzia today is "defending" from imaginary Nato. They really believe that btw. You underestimate ability of authoritarian state to twist words and invent doublespeak.
- trasz 4y ago
  That’s a nice description of your prejudices, but you failed to show any facts that would support it. For starters - why do you assume the elections, which essentially work the same way as presidential elections in US, would be staged? Again, China is not Russia. Mentality-wise, USA is closer to Russia than China is.
  - Yizahi 4y ago
    They may be not "staged" but pointless instead. I once real some long text about their high party politics, and the gist of it was that previously they had a tradition that every decade or so current chairman selects his successor. And that successor brings up his own team, mostly renewing high government posts. It seems that Xi is breaking that tradition and decided to continue ruling forever. Thus he will freeze any political successions in the country. And to do that he would be forced to tighten regulation and control over everything, which will mean even more emphasis on the loyal subordinates and so vicious autocratic circle will continue. Also USA presidential elections are joke, and definitely not a good benchmark to look at. Whole world somehow understands that simple vote by every single citizen is the best way to elect a leader, if you prefer democratic process in general. Also USA is definitely not even close to the ruzzia. I wouldn't evaluate China here, but ruzzia and USA are pretty much on the opposite spectrum in mentality, until Orange-man at least.
    - trasz 4y ago
      Can we agree that both China and US are… somewhat flawed democracies then? The thing about chairman choosing their successor has been provably false a couple of times (search for Gang of Four), at the same time it was provably true a couple of times in US too. As for Russian and American mentality - there many similarities, from glorifying their army, to feeling that they have god-given right to invade anyone, shielding war criminals, being skewed towards religious fundamentalism, to assuming there’s nothing good coming from the government… to a surprisingly short history of their country.
      - 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
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philliphaydon 4y ago
> China has been repeatedly explaining they seek peaceful unification. If that was true they wouldn't have introduced the Anti-secession Law. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine I don't think China would be dumb enough to invade Taiwan. They are already crumbling on the inside and depend too much on imports to survive. Russia has more export than import so it has a better chance to survive when cut off from the rest of the world. And China is pissing off too many neighbours trying to extend its borders.

by trasz 4y ago

Yizahi 4y ago

Xi would "win" "elections" this year, this would be a simple confirmation of his desire and not a problem for him. After that he will rule permanently, because no dictator can rescind power without facing a reaction from the successor. Taiwan occupation can happen at any time in the future, so elections, real or staged, won't interfere with it. Yes, invasion would cause recession, but it won't be framed like that in the media. The recession (maybe) would start before the invasion, then invasion will happen to cover it up and blame outside force (USA of course) for the economic hardships, and this actually works every time. And of course occupation would be peaceful. At least for the first 5 minutes. It would be a totally peaceful blockade on sea and air with a totally reasonable and peaceful demand to surrender all control of the island, disarm army and so on. And when treacherous evil Taiwanese will dare to treacherously attack the blockade forces, then China will be forced to a totally justified self defense. Just like ruzzia today is "defending" from imaginary Nato. They really believe that btw. You underestimate ability of authoritarian state to twist words and invent doublespeak.

trasz 4y ago
That’s a nice description of your prejudices, but you failed to show any facts that would support it. For starters - why do you assume the elections, which essentially work the same way as presidential elections in US, would be staged? Again, China is not Russia. Mentality-wise, USA is closer to Russia than China is.
- Yizahi 4y ago
  They may be not "staged" but pointless instead. I once real some long text about their high party politics, and the gist of it was that previously they had a tradition that every decade or so current chairman selects his successor. And that successor brings up his own team, mostly renewing high government posts. It seems that Xi is breaking that tradition and decided to continue ruling forever. Thus he will freeze any political successions in the country. And to do that he would be forced to tighten regulation and control over everything, which will mean even more emphasis on the loyal subordinates and so vicious autocratic circle will continue. Also USA presidential elections are joke, and definitely not a good benchmark to look at. Whole world somehow understands that simple vote by every single citizen is the best way to elect a leader, if you prefer democratic process in general. Also USA is definitely not even close to the ruzzia. I wouldn't evaluate China here, but ruzzia and USA are pretty much on the opposite spectrum in mentality, until Orange-man at least.
  - trasz 4y ago
    Can we agree that both China and US are… somewhat flawed democracies then? The thing about chairman choosing their successor has been provably false a couple of times (search for Gang of Four), at the same time it was provably true a couple of times in US too. As for Russian and American mentality - there many similarities, from glorifying their army, to feeling that they have god-given right to invade anyone, shielding war criminals, being skewed towards religious fundamentalism, to assuming there’s nothing good coming from the government… to a surprisingly short history of their country.
    - 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

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philliphaydon 4y ago

> China has been repeatedly explaining they seek peaceful unification. If that was true they wouldn't have introduced the Anti-secession Law. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine I don't think China would be dumb enough to invade Taiwan. They are already crumbling on the inside and depend too much on imports to survive. Russia has more export than import so it has a better chance to survive when cut off from the rest of the world. And China is pissing off too many neighbours trying to extend its borders.