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Thanks. The question is, why didn't Europe secure energy supply before inflicting self-sanctions? When Europe sanctions Russia, they're literally sanctioning

Thanks. The question is, why didn't Europe secure energy supply before inflicting self-sanctions? When Europe sanctions Russia, they're literally sanctioning themselves. Why not limit their energy sanctions initially, supply arms to Ukraine, and then plan to get off Russian gas completely over the next 5 years for example? The need to appease the public immediately seems to have done just as much pain to EU as Russia.

mentalpiracy 4y ago
>>> The need to appease the public immediately seems to have done just as much pain to EU as Russia. Interesting way to frame the issue. FWIW, I would have gone with "the need to inflict actual repercussions on Russia for invading a neighbor and slaughtering civilians." Not hard to believe the European public takes issue with that, so close to home.
- senttoschool 4y ago
  - mentalpiracy 4y ago
    >> So isn't all this pain simply because Ukraine's leader (maybe backed by US?) didn't budge until too late? Flatly, no, it is not.
    - senttoschool 4y ago
      >Flatly, no, it is not. https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukraine https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukrain... https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-rus...
      - verdverm 4y ago
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs
    - hahaitsfunny 4y ago
  - Yiin 4y ago
    Even if that was true (it's not and there are multiple facts that contradicts that theory, but it's not related), how does following situation: "Don't try get protection or we will attack you" considers protection is attacked makes the attacker reasonable in your eyes? Being submissive to oppressor literally never worked well for any country in the history of the world and only shows clear examples how it only makes things worse (ww2 wasn't even that long ago).
    - senttoschool 4y ago
      - verdverm 4y ago
        Why does Russia get to have a say about Ukraine's alliances? Or any other country's for that matter?
        senttoschool 4y ago
        Same reason why US wants to have a say about other countries' alliances and leaders: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r... I know you've accused me of being anti-West/US in another thread. I replied to it even though your comment was deleted. I spelled out my stance very clearly there.
        verdverm 4y ago
        two wrongs don't make a right, there is no justification for either doing so
        senttoschool 4y ago
        Sure, two wrongs don't make it right. But you can see where your reasoning is a double standard?
  - _kbh_ 4y ago
    > I fear that this conversation will take a drastic turn. But my view is that Russia invaded because Ukraine wouldn't backdown from joining NATO. After Russia invaded, Ukraine said it won't join NATO if Russia stopped the war. So isn't all this pain simply because Ukraine's leader (maybe backed by US?) didn't budge until too late? Your view is entirely incorrect, we could argue all day about the different thing that Russia has used to justify its genocide of the Ukrainian people but we will never know if any of it's true because Russia will have another brand new reason tomorrow. I do find it interesting that the initial invasion happened very soon after substantial energy deposits where found in the Donbas, which had a chance to knock out some of Russias dominance of the European energy market.
kirykl 4y ago
Poor planning and backed into a corner with policy https://youtu.be/OXqZf72pAhk https://youtu.be/OXqZf72pAhk
NDizzle 4y ago
Hubris. Queue up the videos of Trump pointing that out to laughter.
zajio1am 4y ago
Europe did not introduced energy sanctions, both gas and pipeline-transferred oil were exempt from sanctions. But even before the war, there were gas shortages. Part of gas was delivered based on long-term contracts, part based on spot contracts, and while Russia delivered enough gas to satisfy long-term contracts, it offered less gas to the market so spot price risen. After the war, there were some interruptions or limitations of gas delivery from the Russian side (blamed on not having enough spare parts to maintain gas pipelines).
fy20 4y ago
This has nothing to do with Ukraine, that's just the cherry on top. At the end of last year - when prices were already at record levels - I remember reading an article about gas storage levels in Europe being unusually low. It estimated that given the rate at which gas was being imported, a cold winter could easily use up all gas in storage. Fortunately last winter was rather mild.
- vladTheInhaler 4y ago
  It has everything to do with Ukraine. The low gas storage levels were engineered to create additional leverage over European countries during the upcoming invasion. "The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that 50 percent of the deficit in European storages was due to the depletion of Gazprom-owned storages, despite the fact that Gazprom only owned 10 percent of European storages. This rapid draining of storages left European gas storage dangerously low at the height of winter, increased market panic, and further inflated gas prices." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/gazprom-set-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-in-motion/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/gazprom-s...
b20000 4y ago
because politicians care about pet projects and winning votes and not about solving problems. solving problems is hard and does not win you votes.
jesterson 4y ago
> The need to appease the public immediately seems to have done just as much pain to EU as Russia. This is not entirely correct - the sanctions hurt EU incomparably more than it hurt Russia. Russia still sells it's natural gas and oil without any issues. Business got it's skyrocketing profits, populace in EU got their excuse why they should pay more and suffer in winter, corrupted EU politicians got a scapegoat for their corrupted and irresponsible monetary policies. Nothing to see here, happened many times over course of history.
- bradwood 4y ago
  > EU politicians got a scapegoat for their corrupted and irresponsible monetary policies. EU politicians do not set monetary policy. Central bankers do.
  - jesterson 4y ago
    You are suggesting politicians do not indirectly affect monetary policies? You are right - monetary policies are set by ECB but that's beyond the point of my comment

mentalpiracy 4y ago

>>> The need to appease the public immediately seems to have done just as much pain to EU as Russia. Interesting way to frame the issue. FWIW, I would have gone with "the need to inflict actual repercussions on Russia for invading a neighbor and slaughtering civilians." Not hard to believe the European public takes issue with that, so close to home.

senttoschool 4y ago
- mentalpiracy 4y ago
  >> So isn't all this pain simply because Ukraine's leader (maybe backed by US?) didn't budge until too late? Flatly, no, it is not.
  - senttoschool 4y ago
    >Flatly, no, it is not. https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukraine https://www.npr.org/2022/01/12/1072413634/russia-nato-ukrain... https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membership https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-rus...
    - verdverm 4y ago
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylaC0MUleZs
  - hahaitsfunny 4y ago
- Yiin 4y ago
  Even if that was true (it's not and there are multiple facts that contradicts that theory, but it's not related), how does following situation: "Don't try get protection or we will attack you" considers protection is attacked makes the attacker reasonable in your eyes? Being submissive to oppressor literally never worked well for any country in the history of the world and only shows clear examples how it only makes things worse (ww2 wasn't even that long ago).
  - senttoschool 4y ago
    - verdverm 4y ago
      Why does Russia get to have a say about Ukraine's alliances? Or any other country's for that matter?
      - senttoschool 4y ago
        Same reason why US wants to have a say about other countries' alliances and leaders: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_r... I know you've accused me of being anti-West/US in another thread. I replied to it even though your comment was deleted. I spelled out my stance very clearly there.
        verdverm 4y ago
        two wrongs don't make a right, there is no justification for either doing so
        senttoschool 4y ago
        Sure, two wrongs don't make it right. But you can see where your reasoning is a double standard?
- _kbh_ 4y ago
  > I fear that this conversation will take a drastic turn. But my view is that Russia invaded because Ukraine wouldn't backdown from joining NATO. After Russia invaded, Ukraine said it won't join NATO if Russia stopped the war. So isn't all this pain simply because Ukraine's leader (maybe backed by US?) didn't budge until too late? Your view is entirely incorrect, we could argue all day about the different thing that Russia has used to justify its genocide of the Ukrainian people but we will never know if any of it's true because Russia will have another brand new reason tomorrow. I do find it interesting that the initial invasion happened very soon after substantial energy deposits where found in the Donbas, which had a chance to knock out some of Russias dominance of the European energy market.

kirykl 4y ago

Poor planning and backed into a corner with policy https://youtu.be/OXqZf72pAhk https://youtu.be/OXqZf72pAhk

NDizzle 4y ago

Hubris. Queue up the videos of Trump pointing that out to laughter.

zajio1am 4y ago

Europe did not introduced energy sanctions, both gas and pipeline-transferred oil were exempt from sanctions. But even before the war, there were gas shortages. Part of gas was delivered based on long-term contracts, part based on spot contracts, and while Russia delivered enough gas to satisfy long-term contracts, it offered less gas to the market so spot price risen. After the war, there were some interruptions or limitations of gas delivery from the Russian side (blamed on not having enough spare parts to maintain gas pipelines).

fy20 4y ago

This has nothing to do with Ukraine, that's just the cherry on top. At the end of last year - when prices were already at record levels - I remember reading an article about gas storage levels in Europe being unusually low. It estimated that given the rate at which gas was being imported, a cold winter could easily use up all gas in storage. Fortunately last winter was rather mild.

vladTheInhaler 4y ago
It has everything to do with Ukraine. The low gas storage levels were engineered to create additional leverage over European countries during the upcoming invasion. "The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that 50 percent of the deficit in European storages was due to the depletion of Gazprom-owned storages, despite the fact that Gazprom only owned 10 percent of European storages. This rapid draining of storages left European gas storage dangerously low at the height of winter, increased market panic, and further inflated gas prices." https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/gazprom-set-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-in-motion/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/gazprom-s...

b20000 4y ago

because politicians care about pet projects and winning votes and not about solving problems. solving problems is hard and does not win you votes.

jesterson 4y ago

> The need to appease the public immediately seems to have done just as much pain to EU as Russia. This is not entirely correct - the sanctions hurt EU incomparably more than it hurt Russia. Russia still sells it's natural gas and oil without any issues. Business got it's skyrocketing profits, populace in EU got their excuse why they should pay more and suffer in winter, corrupted EU politicians got a scapegoat for their corrupted and irresponsible monetary policies. Nothing to see here, happened many times over course of history.

bradwood 4y ago
> EU politicians got a scapegoat for their corrupted and irresponsible monetary policies. EU politicians do not set monetary policy. Central bankers do.
- jesterson 4y ago
  You are suggesting politicians do not indirectly affect monetary policies? You are right - monetary policies are set by ECB but that's beyond the point of my comment