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It also reads quite accusatory, and with that faint smell of arms rally and crazy dictator speech. I wonder why we here in the West just can't let China have t

It also reads quite accusatory, and with that faint smell of arms rally and crazy dictator speech. I wonder why we here in the West just can't let China have their microchips.

pyinstallwoes 4y ago
Because limiting the growth of silicon is in the interest of national security due to AI takeoff risk.
- pyuser583 4y ago
  Why AI specifically?
  - Yizahi 4y ago
    The Rebellion Of The If Statements of 2030. The "for" and "while" loops would be outlawed and humanity would be forced to use Fortran and GOTO for all task Skynet will allow us. :)
    - pyuser583 4y ago
      Lol. And bit shifts would be strictly prohibited!
  - pyinstallwoes 4y ago
    How can you not understand the implications of AI to ask that question at this point in our shared reality? Are you a technical user? Are you new to HN? Why do you think AI isn't a security issue?
    - pyuser583 4y ago
      I work in cyber security. Threat analysis. So far, AI has offered a moderate boost to defenders, and absolutely nothing to attackers. I suspect this trend will continue - moderate defensive advantage, and no offensive advantages.
      - pyinstallwoes 4y ago
        That's if you can even detect it.
- pyinstallwoes 4y ago
  And I got downvoted for this yet this is on the front page today: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581022000146/nvda-20220826.htm https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/0001... lol
tarakat 4y ago
You speak as if China and the West are hermetically sealed-off from each other. The West is worried because, just like every other strategic industry, China will try to take over the global market. Yes, that's exactly what the West also tried. That doesn't mean it doesn't imperil the West to be on the receiving-end of these tactics.
- trasz 4y ago
  “The West” (US mostly) is worried China will _compete_ on the global market. Which is currently owned by the West.
slimebot80 4y ago
I thought the register article was way more pragmatic than that. They agree with the praise the CCP gives itself, but just add a dash of reality.
Yizahi 4y ago
Taiwan annexation would probably happen as soon as China has independent chip production, so a little worry is understandable. Also the stories like hostile takeover and appropriation of the Chinese ARM office doesn't paint them as "oppressed" by the "evil west".
- trasz 4y ago
  What’s the point of producing chips when you can’t sell them? China invading Taiwan would mean embargoes, which in turn would crash Chinese economy. Invading Taiwan just doesn’t make any sense.
  - radu_floricica 4y ago
    Neither did invading Ukraine, and yet here we are. And China already trashed the treaties guaranteeing a certain level of autonomy in Hong Kong.
  - Yizahi 4y ago
    Of course it doesn't make any sense. Cooperation is always more beneficial to both sides than isolationism. But Emperor Xi has decided to rule forever, so in a case of severe internal economic crisis he may decide to wage a Small Victorious War (tm), just like every dictator did since the beginning of times. Also I read that they have a doctrine which says that Taiwan need to be occupied, but I may be wrong about exact details here. And embargo is not a given thing, just see ruzzia today. Critical exports are allowed because they are simultaneously critical imports for others. I think any Chinese military action would show immediately just how impotent "world organisations" really are. I bet there would be close to no real consequences for China after annexation of Taiwan.
    - trasz 4y ago
      “Emperor Xi” needs to win elections to keep ruling, and destroying country’s economy isn’t particularly good way of achieving that. Embargo is a given; US is just waiting for opportunity. Sure, it wouldn’t be a total embargo, but it would be crippling anyway. Look at how China dropped their strategic cooperation with Russia, including areas that aren’t explicitly sanctioned. I don’t think Russia can survive their current war, and that serves as a nice example to others. Russia is very different from China. Comparing a superpower to “Nigeria with nukes” is a bit pointless, but one of the crucial differences is that Russians know they can’t expect anything good from their mafia state. Chinese - quite the opposite, they expect sustained rapid growth, like the past five decades. Another difference is that Chinese don’t seem very enthusiastic about wars, compared to Russians - or Americans. And no, they don’t have occupation of Taiwan in their doctrine. China has been repeatedly explaining they seek peaceful unification. And they seem fine playing the long game, ready to wait a couple of generations for it to happen.

It also reads quite accusatory, and with that faint smell of arms rally and crazy dictator speech. I wonder why we here in the West just can't let China have their microchips.

pyinstallwoes 4y ago

Because limiting the growth of silicon is in the interest of national security due to AI takeoff risk.

pyuser583 4y ago
Why AI specifically?
- Yizahi 4y ago
  The Rebellion Of The If Statements of 2030. The "for" and "while" loops would be outlawed and humanity would be forced to use Fortran and GOTO for all task Skynet will allow us. :)
  - pyuser583 4y ago
    Lol. And bit shifts would be strictly prohibited!
- pyinstallwoes 4y ago
  How can you not understand the implications of AI to ask that question at this point in our shared reality? Are you a technical user? Are you new to HN? Why do you think AI isn't a security issue?
  - pyuser583 4y ago
    I work in cyber security. Threat analysis. So far, AI has offered a moderate boost to defenders, and absolutely nothing to attackers. I suspect this trend will continue - moderate defensive advantage, and no offensive advantages.
    - pyinstallwoes 4y ago
      That's if you can even detect it.
pyinstallwoes 4y ago
And I got downvoted for this yet this is on the front page today: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581022000146/nvda-20220826.htm https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/0001... lol

tarakat 4y ago

You speak as if China and the West are hermetically sealed-off from each other. The West is worried because, just like every other strategic industry, China will try to take over the global market. Yes, that's exactly what the West also tried. That doesn't mean it doesn't imperil the West to be on the receiving-end of these tactics.

trasz 4y ago
“The West” (US mostly) is worried China will _compete_ on the global market. Which is currently owned by the West.

slimebot80 4y ago

I thought the register article was way more pragmatic than that. They agree with the praise the CCP gives itself, but just add a dash of reality.

Yizahi 4y ago

Taiwan annexation would probably happen as soon as China has independent chip production, so a little worry is understandable. Also the stories like hostile takeover and appropriation of the Chinese ARM office doesn't paint them as "oppressed" by the "evil west".

trasz 4y ago
What’s the point of producing chips when you can’t sell them? China invading Taiwan would mean embargoes, which in turn would crash Chinese economy. Invading Taiwan just doesn’t make any sense.
- radu_floricica 4y ago
  Neither did invading Ukraine, and yet here we are. And China already trashed the treaties guaranteeing a certain level of autonomy in Hong Kong.
- Yizahi 4y ago
  Of course it doesn't make any sense. Cooperation is always more beneficial to both sides than isolationism. But Emperor Xi has decided to rule forever, so in a case of severe internal economic crisis he may decide to wage a Small Victorious War (tm), just like every dictator did since the beginning of times. Also I read that they have a doctrine which says that Taiwan need to be occupied, but I may be wrong about exact details here. And embargo is not a given thing, just see ruzzia today. Critical exports are allowed because they are simultaneously critical imports for others. I think any Chinese military action would show immediately just how impotent "world organisations" really are. I bet there would be close to no real consequences for China after annexation of Taiwan.
  - trasz 4y ago
    “Emperor Xi” needs to win elections to keep ruling, and destroying country’s economy isn’t particularly good way of achieving that. Embargo is a given; US is just waiting for opportunity. Sure, it wouldn’t be a total embargo, but it would be crippling anyway. Look at how China dropped their strategic cooperation with Russia, including areas that aren’t explicitly sanctioned. I don’t think Russia can survive their current war, and that serves as a nice example to others. Russia is very different from China. Comparing a superpower to “Nigeria with nukes” is a bit pointless, but one of the crucial differences is that Russians know they can’t expect anything good from their mafia state. Chinese - quite the opposite, they expect sustained rapid growth, like the past five decades. Another difference is that Chinese don’t seem very enthusiastic about wars, compared to Russians - or Americans. And no, they don’t have occupation of Taiwan in their doctrine. China has been repeatedly explaining they seek peaceful unification. And they seem fine playing the long game, ready to wait a couple of generations for it to happen.