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Has SoftBank/Masayoshi Son really had great results? A lot of SoftBank was built on their Alibaba investment - $20M which grew to $60B. One stellar investment d
by mdasen 4y ago
Has SoftBank/Masayoshi Son really had great results? A lot of SoftBank was built on their Alibaba investment - $20M which grew to $60B. One stellar investment doesn't create a business model.
SoftBank's purchase of Vodafone Japan wasn't a bad move, but part of that was Vodafone failing miserably in Japan and wanting to exit the market. SoftBank's purchase of Sprint was a disaster until T-Mobile bought Sprint. Their purchase of ARM hasn't yielded anything big for them. They bought ARM for $32B and even if NVIDIA were able to buy ARM for $40B, that would have been less than a 6% annual return on their investment - way below the market return for 2016-2020.
Has there been any big success story for SoftBank beyond their Alibaba investment and purchase of Vodafone Japan (the latter which seems to have have grown at a rate of 8% per year since 2006 which is mediocre at best)? Everything else seems to have been really mediocre or a failure.
Uber? It's still losing money and didn't pay off. WeWork? That imploded. Supercell they were able to flip to Tencent for a few billion which was a nice payday, but somewhat small for the size (and bluster) of SoftBank. Didi? That has sunk like a stone. Coupang has fallen a lot since its IPO, but SoftBank is probably still in the black on their investment there - but it's still not a huge success.
It just seems like they've had one Alibaba where they turned $20M into $60B (a 3,000x return) and the rest of their picks feel like the types of things your coworkers chat about at lunch. "ARM is going to be huge! Everything is going to be chips in the future and it's all going to be ARM!" "WeWork is the next big thing - space as a service! They're going to take over everything with office space and co-working!" "Uber is going to take over transportation! No more subways, they'll just have these autonomous Ubers going around everywhere!" "Wag is like Uber for dog walking! Everyone will pay for premium dog walking!" I'm not even saying that these are bad businesses, but they seem over-hyped and without special insight. They seem like they're the same level of insight that you get over a lunch conversation with random people at work.
- nprateem 4y agoIt's great to see validation for the usual advice: just buy an index ETF. Most stock pickers fail to consistently outperform the market.
- fomine3 4y agoFor mobile network in Japan, it is considered that SoftBank's acquiring WILLCOM (PHS, simple cellular phone operator) and eAccess (also cellular operator) were a smart move. They gained already assigned frequency bands for them. Govt should had stopped it for fairness. Acquiring LINE (messaging service dominant in Japan, and also in some asia countries) looks good move but it is still not monetized well. Investing Yahoo! looks succeeded, perhaps? I don't know when they sold. Investing WeWork is really terrible to see.
- skinnymuch 4y agoWhich part of Yahoo do you mean? They bought out a lot more of Yahoo Japan from Yahoo/Altaba before merging it 50/50 with LINE (which you pointed out they owned a significant stake of).
- fomine3 4y agoI mean $YHOO. SB invested for them since 1995 (before IPO) https://group.softbank/news/press/19960412 https://group.softbank/news/press/19960412
- skinnymuch 4y agoThey sold Uber for a couple billion profit earlier. Their significant stake in Z Holdings, Yahoo Japan and LINE merger, is doing all right too.