6 ms·

In the interest of being completely fair to Dyson, I'm not sure anyone could have fully predicted just how bad of a regime Putin's would be. That said it seems

In the interest of being completely fair to Dyson, I'm not sure anyone could have fully predicted just how bad of a regime Putin's would be. That said it seems like a long shot just the same.

noilly 15y ago
Exactly... the political and economic institutions of Russia have not progressed and have likely regressed in the last 10 years. Who led Russia in 2002? Putin. Who is leading Russia in 2011/12? Still Putin and United Russia. The Litvinenko killing and Khodorkovsky imprisonment are chilling indictments of this regression. Also the run up of energy and commodity prices has only increased the allure and hold of the Dutch disease in Russia.
- dredmorbius 15y ago
  Hrm ... interesting thought: is a market dependent on financial services analogous to one dependent on natural resources? Particularly if those financial services are extractive in nature?
  - timiscool999 15y ago
    Maybe, but they look like two separate problems to me. Russia's is a "resource curse": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse Our current financial system looks more like a twist on a "rent seekers": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_seeking http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_seeking They're kind of similar, but only because resource curse countries end up with a bunch of rent seekers and corrupt officials.
    - dredmorbius 15y ago
      I've got to mull this one over a bit. After several decades of study, I'm just starting to really grok money and finance. Notable WRT resources curse / Dutch disease is the Norwegian counterexample: http://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/377.html http://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/377.html
      - bh42222 15y ago
        Norway had a strong law and order foundation before they hit oil.
        gwern 15y ago
        True, but the article the other day on Norway said that they squandered the oil up until the 1970s? when they brought in a foreigner to advise them on how to set up their current successful system. The law and order helped them recover from their mistakes, yes, but it didn't stop them from making them and if the oil had run out before they recovered...?
    - dredmorbius 15y ago
      So ... finance definitely has a rent-seeking component, having reviewed some of the literature. But it also has the effect of starving other fields of talent and technical expertise, of bidding up their costs, and related effects which are more similar to Dutch Disease / Resource Curse. The number of physics, maths, and engineering grads working at banks / financial institutions rather than at science / product R&D firms, for example, is pretty staggering. Still mulling, but thanks for the food for thought.
  - michaelf 15y ago
    > Particularly if those financial services are extractive in nature? Could you elaborate on that sentence? What do you mean by "extractive"? In the context of natural resources, I take that word to imply that the resource is depleted (e.g. non-renewable). Do you have a difference sense in mind?
    - billswift 15y ago
      I wondered what he meant by "extractive" financial services, too. >In the context of natural resources, I take that word to imply that the resource is depleted (e.g. non-renewable). Is incorrect. Lumbering and agriculture are extractive industries but not "non-renewable". All primary production of resources are "extractive" industries.
      - dredmorbius 15y ago
        I had in mind non-renewable extractive industries. I don't see sustainable timber, agriculture, fishing, or solar/wind/geothermal/hydroelectric power as extractive. Wikipedia appears to agree with me, likewise the World Bank: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extractive_industry http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extractive_industry http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTOGMC/0,,contentMDK:20605112~menuPK:592071~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:336930,00.html http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTOGMC/0,,c...
    - dredmorbius 15y ago
      "Rent seeking" would be a good description of what I had in mind, take a look at the Wikipedia article I mentioned. Some financial activities -- traditional financing of productive economic activity with real returns -- actually generates productive financial and economic activity. Other forms of finance -- essentially create liquidity based on existing assets, but don't actually turn that liquidity into something productive. Say, roughly, a HELOC. Or they simply squeeze payments out of population that's poorly equipped to refuse them: fees, fines, and penalties added to many financial and services contracts. I'd argue that both of the latter are "extractive" in that rather than promoting economic activity, they serve to convert some illiquid asset class (or population) into a currency pump for the benefit of the financier. I don't know if computerized trading falls into this model but I'm inclined to think it does, and would very much favor a transactions tax to put limits on this sort of activity. I suspect the bigger problem is that these systems are poorly understood and have very large downside potential through inadvertent (or deliberate) feedback loops. Think Flash Crash.
AJ007 15y ago
Political change must go hand in hand with cultural change. It is easy to blame a democratically elected leader, yet quite difficult to identify the underlying problems of those who elected that leader to power. Russia is decades ahead of other countries, but they have a long path ahead of them. A good start would be teaching English in elementary school.
- pbz 15y ago
  I'd be very surprised if they don't teach English in elementary. In Eastern Europe they start teaching English from kindergarten.
  - AJ007 15y ago
    I have not met any Russians who were proficient in English, that learned it locally in school. I have met Russians who were fairly good with English that learned it after living in the US for a while. Compare that to, for example, someone from the Philippines who will be proficient enough in English that you think they are an American.
    - asmosoinio 15y ago
      Not arguin against you, but I think your example was a pretty poor one: The Philippines was basically owned and ran by the US for a hundred years. So when discussing English skills, it is not a good example of a "regular other country".
      - AJ007 15y ago
        I never said the Philippines was a "regular other country", thus why is this in quotes? In my own personal business, I estimate without native English proficiency my employees would be worth 1/5th or less of what they are to me now. I would have to hire an bilingual manager to run projects, and that person would have to be paid a lot. My turnover would be higher and the accuracy of instructions would be diminished, thus resulting in slower project execution times. Irregardless of the non-ideal situations of the past, current citizens with English proficiency benefit enormously -- in the form of money. Being proficient in English is a really big deal. As an American child I was told over and over again that it was important to learn a foreign language to increase my ability to get a job. As an adult, I found the opposite, that English above all other languages was critical in running a successful international business.
krookoo 15y ago
They're a world leader in underground and criminal computing activities alright.

In the interest of being completely fair to Dyson, I'm not sure anyone could have fully predicted just how bad of a regime Putin's would be. That said it seems like a long shot just the same.

noilly 15y ago

Exactly... the political and economic institutions of Russia have not progressed and have likely regressed in the last 10 years. Who led Russia in 2002? Putin. Who is leading Russia in 2011/12? Still Putin and United Russia. The Litvinenko killing and Khodorkovsky imprisonment are chilling indictments of this regression. Also the run up of energy and commodity prices has only increased the allure and hold of the Dutch disease in Russia.

dredmorbius 15y ago
Hrm ... interesting thought: is a market dependent on financial services analogous to one dependent on natural resources? Particularly if those financial services are extractive in nature?
- timiscool999 15y ago
  Maybe, but they look like two separate problems to me. Russia's is a "resource curse": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse Our current financial system looks more like a twist on a "rent seekers": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_seeking http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_seeking They're kind of similar, but only because resource curse countries end up with a bunch of rent seekers and corrupt officials.
  - dredmorbius 15y ago
    I've got to mull this one over a bit. After several decades of study, I'm just starting to really grok money and finance. Notable WRT resources curse / Dutch disease is the Norwegian counterexample: http://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/377.html http://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/377.html
    - bh42222 15y ago
      Norway had a strong law and order foundation before they hit oil.
      - gwern 15y ago
        True, but the article the other day on Norway said that they squandered the oil up until the 1970s? when they brought in a foreigner to advise them on how to set up their current successful system. The law and order helped them recover from their mistakes, yes, but it didn't stop them from making them and if the oil had run out before they recovered...?
  - dredmorbius 15y ago
    So ... finance definitely has a rent-seeking component, having reviewed some of the literature. But it also has the effect of starving other fields of talent and technical expertise, of bidding up their costs, and related effects which are more similar to Dutch Disease / Resource Curse. The number of physics, maths, and engineering grads working at banks / financial institutions rather than at science / product R&D firms, for example, is pretty staggering. Still mulling, but thanks for the food for thought.
- michaelf 15y ago
  > Particularly if those financial services are extractive in nature? Could you elaborate on that sentence? What do you mean by "extractive"? In the context of natural resources, I take that word to imply that the resource is depleted (e.g. non-renewable). Do you have a difference sense in mind?
  - billswift 15y ago
    I wondered what he meant by "extractive" financial services, too. >In the context of natural resources, I take that word to imply that the resource is depleted (e.g. non-renewable). Is incorrect. Lumbering and agriculture are extractive industries but not "non-renewable". All primary production of resources are "extractive" industries.
    - dredmorbius 15y ago
      I had in mind non-renewable extractive industries. I don't see sustainable timber, agriculture, fishing, or solar/wind/geothermal/hydroelectric power as extractive. Wikipedia appears to agree with me, likewise the World Bank: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extractive_industry http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extractive_industry http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTOGMC/0,,contentMDK:20605112~menuPK:592071~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:336930,00.html http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/EXTOGMC/0,,c...
  - dredmorbius 15y ago
    "Rent seeking" would be a good description of what I had in mind, take a look at the Wikipedia article I mentioned. Some financial activities -- traditional financing of productive economic activity with real returns -- actually generates productive financial and economic activity. Other forms of finance -- essentially create liquidity based on existing assets, but don't actually turn that liquidity into something productive. Say, roughly, a HELOC. Or they simply squeeze payments out of population that's poorly equipped to refuse them: fees, fines, and penalties added to many financial and services contracts. I'd argue that both of the latter are "extractive" in that rather than promoting economic activity, they serve to convert some illiquid asset class (or population) into a currency pump for the benefit of the financier. I don't know if computerized trading falls into this model but I'm inclined to think it does, and would very much favor a transactions tax to put limits on this sort of activity. I suspect the bigger problem is that these systems are poorly understood and have very large downside potential through inadvertent (or deliberate) feedback loops. Think Flash Crash.

AJ007 15y ago

Political change must go hand in hand with cultural change. It is easy to blame a democratically elected leader, yet quite difficult to identify the underlying problems of those who elected that leader to power. Russia is decades ahead of other countries, but they have a long path ahead of them. A good start would be teaching English in elementary school.

pbz 15y ago
I'd be very surprised if they don't teach English in elementary. In Eastern Europe they start teaching English from kindergarten.
- AJ007 15y ago
  I have not met any Russians who were proficient in English, that learned it locally in school. I have met Russians who were fairly good with English that learned it after living in the US for a while. Compare that to, for example, someone from the Philippines who will be proficient enough in English that you think they are an American.
  - asmosoinio 15y ago
    Not arguin against you, but I think your example was a pretty poor one: The Philippines was basically owned and ran by the US for a hundred years. So when discussing English skills, it is not a good example of a "regular other country".
    - AJ007 15y ago
      I never said the Philippines was a "regular other country", thus why is this in quotes? In my own personal business, I estimate without native English proficiency my employees would be worth 1/5th or less of what they are to me now. I would have to hire an bilingual manager to run projects, and that person would have to be paid a lot. My turnover would be higher and the accuracy of instructions would be diminished, thus resulting in slower project execution times. Irregardless of the non-ideal situations of the past, current citizens with English proficiency benefit enormously -- in the form of money. Being proficient in English is a really big deal. As an American child I was told over and over again that it was important to learn a foreign language to increase my ability to get a job. As an adult, I found the opposite, that English above all other languages was critical in running a successful international business.

krookoo 15y ago

They're a world leader in underground and criminal computing activities alright.