6 ms·

On the rationality of divination practices (2021)

29 points by larve 4y ago

gumby 4y ago
Some years ago I was working on solar powered water pumps in California's Central Valley. The valley is irrigated by the California Aqueduct and also by groundwater (it sits on top of an aquifer).* Turns out most of the farmers use "witchers" -- people with divining rods. Well, not all rods, some use a willow stick, yes, some use a wire coat hanger, and others, well, anything goes. I asked one of these farmers -- a retired navy officer with a couple of graduate degrees how will it worked (his guy was the wire coat hanger guy). He said, "well, he can never tell me how deep to drill but when he finds a location there's invariably water." * yes, they are pulling out water that flowed in 20,000 years ago faster than it's being replaced...and the dry parts collapse.
- kbrkbr 4y ago
  You mean this as an example for randomization?
- BoxOfRain 4y ago
  Apparently water divining rods are still used by British water companies. Can't say I'm particularly impressed given the amount of leaky pipes and raw sewage in the rivers at the moment! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-water-firms-admit-using-divining-rods-to-find-leaks-and-pipes https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-water-fi...
- devwastaken 4y ago
  There's a phenomenon in winter here where under the right conditions the early frost in the morning in the fall will be thawed over the buried water lines, which are 7-9ft deep. (Running water of course) I've seen it, but haven't figured how it's done.
devwastaken 4y ago
The easiest method to discredit divination is that if it were real in any context, that context can be described, a procedure can be drawn, and we can make tools to do it. "Science" is the method of figuring and describing. Diviners scoff, but cards did not always exist for divination, that is a modern creation. So why not an app?
- pyinstallwoes 4y ago
  You can’t make an app for belief.
- travisjungroth 4y ago
  This argument is real loose. You seemed to have started with your conclusion and worked backwards, then since it doesn't work the other side is wrong. "The easiest method to discredit divination is that if it were real in any context, that context can be described, a procedure can be drawn, and we can make tools to do it." This argument assumes complete mastery of the universe. There are so many biological and chemical processes we don't have tools to do. We can't raise a baby outside of a mother's womb. We can't make solar flares. "So why not an app?" Possibly because it just wouldn't work. There's no reason it has to. Jet engine blades weren't always ceramic. Why not cardboard?
kelseyfrog 4y ago
Have ever felt like you're in a rut when it comes to figuring ouy life problems, or that you need a new perspective, or have ever flipped a coin and while it was in the air realized what outcome you really wanted? If so, divination is a tool to generate ideas to get out of that rut or offer new perspectives, or help make up ones mind. True belief is not a requirement or may even get in the way. Divination is simply a procedural generation technique for new ideas and interpretations.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  Randomization is a method poorly understood by Victorian natural philosophers and their students. Scientists are just beginning to grasp its power. One may reasonably wonder whether the success of Monte Carlo modeling and natural selection helped to usher in this insight. Its limitations are as important as its uses.
  - kelseyfrog 4y ago
    This is perhaps a tangent too far, but your association between the perception of randomness and Victorian thought struck a chord. Would it be safe to say that there was an establishment of a connection between randomness, chaos, nature, and usefulness that was framed in opposition to order, structure, rationality, and usefulness during this time? I suppose I'm interested in the phylogeny of this dichotomy if it exists at all and its repercussions today. Directly, it would seem to affect the gendered practice of mysticism today where we can pretty clearly see in who and how modern divination is practiced.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      The Victorians started with a huge societal bias for mysticism. It was even coded into law, making atheism effectively illegal. Digging out from under that mountain of shit was a huge job with little room for nuance. Science is even today not very secure (cf. antivaxx, flat-earthers), so being open to non-causality is still hard. Similarly, geologists had to carve their field out of universal insistence on catastrophism. Appealing to a catastrophic explanation in geology was akin to appealing to God in physics, or "life force" in biochemistry. It has been a productive esthetic. But catastrophes really do happen sometimes, and are the explanation for, e.g., the eastern Washington state Scablands. It was very hard for geologists to allow that. Thus the K-T bolide strike was very, very hard for them, and the Younger Dryas boundary strike that killed off the mammoths and the Clovis culture is still hard for many. Historians have had to begin to adjust to results from archaeology, carbon dating, surface luminescence, pollen analysis, and population genetics, where everything used to depend entirely on preserved texts. They still have not internalized big, organized, pre-literate societies, and societies like the Harappans whose entire written corpus is forever lost.
retrac 4y ago
The mention of the I Ching reminds me of the Shang dynasty of early China. Divination played a central role in the ruling class's political authority. Among other techniques, questions for the ancestors of the ruler, as well as other beings, would be written on ox shoulder-bones and tortoise shells, heated, and the pattern of cracks created through the text would be analyzed for the answer. The Shang were quite rational about it. All the results were recorded and analyzed. Ancestors who failed to yield good results would be bribed, punished, or ignored. Good results would encouraged before, and rewarded after, with various sacrifices. The oracle bone texts [1] themselves offer a unique insight, quite unlike anything in the world, kind of like if we had a collection of prayer notes or tarot readings for the President. Anyway, it occurred to me that all this may have actually, well, worked. The whole process -- the record keeping, extensive reflection on the issue, discussions, subconscious influences on the interpretation, a pragmatic "well does it work?" attitude -- create a system for analysis of issues that, by means entirely other than what they thought, actually worked better than chance, in terms picking the right option. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oracle_bone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oracle_bone

29 points by larve 4y ago

Some years ago I was working on solar powered water pumps in California's Central Valley. The valley is irrigated by the California Aqueduct and also by groundwater (it sits on top of an aquifer).* Turns out most of the farmers use "witchers" -- people with divining rods. Well, not all rods, some use a willow stick, yes, some use a wire coat hanger, and others, well, anything goes. I asked one of these farmers -- a retired navy officer with a couple of graduate degrees how will it worked (his guy was the wire coat hanger guy). He said, "well, he can never tell me how deep to drill but when he finds a location there's invariably water." * yes, they are pulling out water that flowed in 20,000 years ago faster than it's being replaced...and the dry parts collapse.

kbrkbr 4y ago
You mean this as an example for randomization?
BoxOfRain 4y ago
Apparently water divining rods are still used by British water companies. Can't say I'm particularly impressed given the amount of leaky pipes and raw sewage in the rivers at the moment! https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-water-firms-admit-using-divining-rods-to-find-leaks-and-pipes https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/21/uk-water-fi...
devwastaken 4y ago
There's a phenomenon in winter here where under the right conditions the early frost in the morning in the fall will be thawed over the buried water lines, which are 7-9ft deep. (Running water of course) I've seen it, but haven't figured how it's done.

devwastaken 4y ago

The easiest method to discredit divination is that if it were real in any context, that context can be described, a procedure can be drawn, and we can make tools to do it. "Science" is the method of figuring and describing. Diviners scoff, but cards did not always exist for divination, that is a modern creation. So why not an app?

pyinstallwoes 4y ago
You can’t make an app for belief.
travisjungroth 4y ago
This argument is real loose. You seemed to have started with your conclusion and worked backwards, then since it doesn't work the other side is wrong. "The easiest method to discredit divination is that if it were real in any context, that context can be described, a procedure can be drawn, and we can make tools to do it." This argument assumes complete mastery of the universe. There are so many biological and chemical processes we don't have tools to do. We can't raise a baby outside of a mother's womb. We can't make solar flares. "So why not an app?" Possibly because it just wouldn't work. There's no reason it has to. Jet engine blades weren't always ceramic. Why not cardboard?

kelseyfrog 4y ago

Have ever felt like you're in a rut when it comes to figuring ouy life problems, or that you need a new perspective, or have ever flipped a coin and while it was in the air realized what outcome you really wanted? If so, divination is a tool to generate ideas to get out of that rut or offer new perspectives, or help make up ones mind. True belief is not a requirement or may even get in the way. Divination is simply a procedural generation technique for new ideas and interpretations.

ncmncm 4y ago
Randomization is a method poorly understood by Victorian natural philosophers and their students. Scientists are just beginning to grasp its power. One may reasonably wonder whether the success of Monte Carlo modeling and natural selection helped to usher in this insight. Its limitations are as important as its uses.
- kelseyfrog 4y ago
  This is perhaps a tangent too far, but your association between the perception of randomness and Victorian thought struck a chord. Would it be safe to say that there was an establishment of a connection between randomness, chaos, nature, and usefulness that was framed in opposition to order, structure, rationality, and usefulness during this time? I suppose I'm interested in the phylogeny of this dichotomy if it exists at all and its repercussions today. Directly, it would seem to affect the gendered practice of mysticism today where we can pretty clearly see in who and how modern divination is practiced.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    The Victorians started with a huge societal bias for mysticism. It was even coded into law, making atheism effectively illegal. Digging out from under that mountain of shit was a huge job with little room for nuance. Science is even today not very secure (cf. antivaxx, flat-earthers), so being open to non-causality is still hard. Similarly, geologists had to carve their field out of universal insistence on catastrophism. Appealing to a catastrophic explanation in geology was akin to appealing to God in physics, or "life force" in biochemistry. It has been a productive esthetic. But catastrophes really do happen sometimes, and are the explanation for, e.g., the eastern Washington state Scablands. It was very hard for geologists to allow that. Thus the K-T bolide strike was very, very hard for them, and the Younger Dryas boundary strike that killed off the mammoths and the Clovis culture is still hard for many. Historians have had to begin to adjust to results from archaeology, carbon dating, surface luminescence, pollen analysis, and population genetics, where everything used to depend entirely on preserved texts. They still have not internalized big, organized, pre-literate societies, and societies like the Harappans whose entire written corpus is forever lost.

retrac 4y ago

The mention of the I Ching reminds me of the Shang dynasty of early China. Divination played a central role in the ruling class's political authority. Among other techniques, questions for the ancestors of the ruler, as well as other beings, would be written on ox shoulder-bones and tortoise shells, heated, and the pattern of cracks created through the text would be analyzed for the answer. The Shang were quite rational about it. All the results were recorded and analyzed. Ancestors who failed to yield good results would be bribed, punished, or ignored. Good results would encouraged before, and rewarded after, with various sacrifices. The oracle bone texts [1] themselves offer a unique insight, quite unlike anything in the world, kind of like if we had a collection of prayer notes or tarot readings for the President. Anyway, it occurred to me that all this may have actually, well, worked. The whole process -- the record keeping, extensive reflection on the issue, discussions, subconscious influences on the interpretation, a pragmatic "well does it work?" attitude -- create a system for analysis of issues that, by means entirely other than what they thought, actually worked better than chance, in terms picking the right option. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oracle_bone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oracle_bone