The only way Elon Musk would take a punt on it would be if someone else was actively trying it already, i.e., prestige and ego-driven competition to be first.

The only way Elon Musk would take a punt on it would be if someone else was actively trying it already, i.e., prestige and ego-driven competition to be first. That's what got Mercury, Gemini and the Apollo programs going. Not going to argue that their applications had enormous economic benefits in the end, but that wasn't the original driver. Ten or a hundred million dollars might be enough for a private ego-driven thing, but 10 billion?