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As near as I can tell, noone's area of expertise is economics. Hackers seem to have just a good a handle on matters as the "experts". If you really want to fe
by jhancock 18y ago
As near as I can tell, noone's area of expertise is economics. Hackers seem to have just a good a handle on matters as the "experts". If you really want to feel "safe" do a little research and see what "Greenspan's" PhD thesis was about. Spoiler hint: You won't find it. Folks that have studied his background believe he was "gifted" his PhD in effort to allow his rise in the government. I'm not supporting this viewpoint, just pointing out the uncertainty. To add irony, Barron's thinks they found a copy and the 1977 thesis was about a housing debacle!!! http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB120917419049046805.html?mod=mktw http://online.barrons.com/public/article/SB12091741904904680...
You may not like that someone thinks its a depression and not a recession. You may not like that someone thinks its 3 years, not 1 or 5. But hey, their guess is as good as the "pros" at this point.
And noone can explain the little raise in the dollar the last week. These little hiccups are almost unpredictable in a complex global economic realignment.
So you may not agree with certain words such as "recession" vs. "depression" or someone's guess as to how long it will last or even if the U.S. will ever recover.
But I think the non-quantitative predictions in the article are solid nonetheless.
- davidw 18y ago> You may not like that someone thinks its a depression and not a recession. You may not like that someone thinks its 3 years, not 1 or 5. But hey, their guess is as good as the "pros" at this point. What I don't like is people pretending it's anything but a wild guess. You're right that the discussion of how the downturn will affect software and open source is better. That's because it's something Nat clearly knows a great deal about. He should have stuck with that.