3 ms·

The Chinese economy: fact, fiction, faith and flexibility

5 points by graderjs 4y ago

ggm 4y ago
A great read. To me the main takeaway is not to fall into a sin of believing things about China because you want them to be true. Golley is explicit she's seen this in himself. Also, a subtext is that what matters is probably how the Chinese feel about it, more than how we ideate it. I was interested in how little evidence there is of a "debt trap policy" in Africa. It's certainly been a constant of declared Australian strategic views of China in the pacific. Golley seems to say it may be more transparent motivations: the Chinese want the minerals and fish protein, and the providing nation states want unfettered money (no social policy strings, as the west and world bank demand) and freely offer their UN vote as a side deal. Arguably, as nation states, everyone's getting what they want. The other dynamic here is the demographics. They don't have the labour to replace their ageing population any more than Japan does and turning around one child policy takes time. The completely unnecessary war on Uighers didn't help there: protected minorities are allowed more children.
- dontlaugh 4y ago
  Arguably the demographic and economic aspect should put into doubt the western reporting on Xinjiang and Uyghurs. Perhaps Saudi-funded Wahhabism is actually a violent problem to be solved through education, public funding and jobs. Perhaps Uyghurs working in all sorts of jobs just like other Chinese people is in the interest of everyone and thus encouraged.
  - ggm 4y ago
    Sorry.. this makes no sense. The economic and demographic puts in doubt the WISDOM of the policy. It doesn't put the ACTUALITY of the policy in doubt at all. The Han chinese majority controlling party structures are scared of racial and religious minorities. I would say that in the longterm, yes: Wahabism like all religious extremism responds best to education and jobs. Confronting fire with fire doesn't seem to work. Political opposition to Iran and Shia power in the middle east has caused a long slow political forest fire to wreak havoc. I really despair at this ending before the drop in water supply in the region causes more fundamental problems to explode from Turkey ownwards.
    - dontlaugh 4y ago
      Perhaps we are misinformed on purpose about what is happening on China, that’s my point. You can choose to believe Radio Free Asia and Adrian Zenz, or you can choose to believe the PRC when it says it attempts to fight terrorism with education and jobs. Ethnic minorities are actually over represented in both the CPC and the national congress. This shouldn’t be surprising considering they were often leaders during the revolution and civil war.
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
> true commitment to a low-carbon ‘green’ economy, and was on its way to achieving it. I'm not sure what "true commitment" would entail, but China is generally doing really well on this front. The world could be doing better, and so could China, but almost all the noise about China is from people trying to deflect attention from their own lack of action. Since the author is in Australia, they're probably soaked in the meme that "renewable energy is hippy feel-good stuff and burning coal is the economically efficient thing to do". From that viewpoint you would be worried that China would do the "smart" thing that Australia is doing. If on the other hand, you view Australia as throwing away an incredible advantage in renewables for no good reason, then you're less worried. The guy that China lured back to found the first solar power unicorn was doing PV research in Australia and had got citizenship there. "What if China saved the world and noone noticed?" https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/what-if-china-saved-the-world-and-nobody-noticed-20220818-p5bavz.html https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/what-if-ch... > In the world’s popular imagination, China is a machine built on coal. At the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow in November last year, China – along with Australia and India – declined to sign a pledge to phase out coal use. In the wake of the pandemic, it stimulated its economy by ramping up coal production so much that climate observation satellites detected new plumes of methane emissions leaking from mines across Inner Mongolia. > For years China’s reliance on coal has been used as a rhetorical device by those in the West opposed to taking effective climate action. It was the excuse Donald Trump used when he abandoned the Paris Agreement in 2017. “China will be allowed to build hundreds of additional coal plants,” Trump said. “So, we can’t build the plants, but they can, according to this agreement.” > But the coal haze has obscured a more crucial truth about China’s energy expansion. If pending US efforts on renewable energy are extraordinary, the revolution under way in China is truly staggering. Last year the US boasted that it was on track to deploy about 30 gigawatts of new renewables. In China, the figure could be as hight as 180 gigawatts. Last year China alone accounted for 46 per cent of the world’s new construction of renewable energy infrastructure. > Last week Bloomberg NEF reported that China’s renewables investment for the first half of 2022 included large-scale solar totalling $US41 billion – up 173 per cent from the year before – and investment in new wind projects increasing by 107 per cent year-on-year to $US58 billion. > This is not a product of altruism; President Xi Jinping is doing it because he intends that China will dominate the critical industries of the future. > As international energy analyst Tim Buckley puts it, while China leads the world in coal use, it also leads the world in “wind and solar installation, in wind and solar manufacturing, in electric vehicle production, in batteries, in hydro, in nuclear, in ground heat pumps, in grid transmission and distribution, and in green hydrogen. They literally lead the world in every zero-emissions technology today.”
drKarl 4y ago
I'm surprised there's no mention of Evergrande in an article about China's economy
pmdulaney 4y ago
I somehow jumped to this fascinating article about the author of this piece, Jane Golley. She was cancelled -- from what I can tell -- for suggesting that the extent of the Uigher Muslim genocide might be less than generally assumed. But the article is more about her growing up years and how she developed a love for Chinese culture. https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/china-expert-jane-golley-on-being-cancelled-20211228-p59ki0 https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/china-expert-... So I ask an honest question: Is the fact that Golley got cancelled evidence that Uigher genocide is now a woke issue? Or that non-woke people are getting on the cancel culture bandwagon?

5 points by graderjs 4y ago

ggm 4y ago

A great read. To me the main takeaway is not to fall into a sin of believing things about China because you want them to be true. Golley is explicit she's seen this in himself. Also, a subtext is that what matters is probably how the Chinese feel about it, more than how we ideate it. I was interested in how little evidence there is of a "debt trap policy" in Africa. It's certainly been a constant of declared Australian strategic views of China in the pacific. Golley seems to say it may be more transparent motivations: the Chinese want the minerals and fish protein, and the providing nation states want unfettered money (no social policy strings, as the west and world bank demand) and freely offer their UN vote as a side deal. Arguably, as nation states, everyone's getting what they want. The other dynamic here is the demographics. They don't have the labour to replace their ageing population any more than Japan does and turning around one child policy takes time. The completely unnecessary war on Uighers didn't help there: protected minorities are allowed more children.

dontlaugh 4y ago
Arguably the demographic and economic aspect should put into doubt the western reporting on Xinjiang and Uyghurs. Perhaps Saudi-funded Wahhabism is actually a violent problem to be solved through education, public funding and jobs. Perhaps Uyghurs working in all sorts of jobs just like other Chinese people is in the interest of everyone and thus encouraged.
- ggm 4y ago
  Sorry.. this makes no sense. The economic and demographic puts in doubt the WISDOM of the policy. It doesn't put the ACTUALITY of the policy in doubt at all. The Han chinese majority controlling party structures are scared of racial and religious minorities. I would say that in the longterm, yes: Wahabism like all religious extremism responds best to education and jobs. Confronting fire with fire doesn't seem to work. Political opposition to Iran and Shia power in the middle east has caused a long slow political forest fire to wreak havoc. I really despair at this ending before the drop in water supply in the region causes more fundamental problems to explode from Turkey ownwards.
  - dontlaugh 4y ago
    Perhaps we are misinformed on purpose about what is happening on China, that’s my point. You can choose to believe Radio Free Asia and Adrian Zenz, or you can choose to believe the PRC when it says it attempts to fight terrorism with education and jobs. Ethnic minorities are actually over represented in both the CPC and the national congress. This shouldn’t be surprising considering they were often leaders during the revolution and civil war.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

> true commitment to a low-carbon ‘green’ economy, and was on its way to achieving it. I'm not sure what "true commitment" would entail, but China is generally doing really well on this front. The world could be doing better, and so could China, but almost all the noise about China is from people trying to deflect attention from their own lack of action. Since the author is in Australia, they're probably soaked in the meme that "renewable energy is hippy feel-good stuff and burning coal is the economically efficient thing to do". From that viewpoint you would be worried that China would do the "smart" thing that Australia is doing. If on the other hand, you view Australia as throwing away an incredible advantage in renewables for no good reason, then you're less worried. The guy that China lured back to found the first solar power unicorn was doing PV research in Australia and had got citizenship there. "What if China saved the world and noone noticed?" https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/what-if-china-saved-the-world-and-nobody-noticed-20220818-p5bavz.html https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/what-if-ch... > In the world’s popular imagination, China is a machine built on coal. At the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow in November last year, China – along with Australia and India – declined to sign a pledge to phase out coal use. In the wake of the pandemic, it stimulated its economy by ramping up coal production so much that climate observation satellites detected new plumes of methane emissions leaking from mines across Inner Mongolia. > For years China’s reliance on coal has been used as a rhetorical device by those in the West opposed to taking effective climate action. It was the excuse Donald Trump used when he abandoned the Paris Agreement in 2017. “China will be allowed to build hundreds of additional coal plants,” Trump said. “So, we can’t build the plants, but they can, according to this agreement.” > But the coal haze has obscured a more crucial truth about China’s energy expansion. If pending US efforts on renewable energy are extraordinary, the revolution under way in China is truly staggering. Last year the US boasted that it was on track to deploy about 30 gigawatts of new renewables. In China, the figure could be as hight as 180 gigawatts. Last year China alone accounted for 46 per cent of the world’s new construction of renewable energy infrastructure. > Last week Bloomberg NEF reported that China’s renewables investment for the first half of 2022 included large-scale solar totalling $US41 billion – up 173 per cent from the year before – and investment in new wind projects increasing by 107 per cent year-on-year to $US58 billion. > This is not a product of altruism; President Xi Jinping is doing it because he intends that China will dominate the critical industries of the future. > As international energy analyst Tim Buckley puts it, while China leads the world in coal use, it also leads the world in “wind and solar installation, in wind and solar manufacturing, in electric vehicle production, in batteries, in hydro, in nuclear, in ground heat pumps, in grid transmission and distribution, and in green hydrogen. They literally lead the world in every zero-emissions technology today.”

drKarl 4y ago

I'm surprised there's no mention of Evergrande in an article about China's economy

pmdulaney 4y ago

I somehow jumped to this fascinating article about the author of this piece, Jane Golley. She was cancelled -- from what I can tell -- for suggesting that the extent of the Uigher Muslim genocide might be less than generally assumed. But the article is more about her growing up years and how she developed a love for Chinese culture. https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/china-expert-jane-golley-on-being-cancelled-20211228-p59ki0 https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/education/china-expert-... So I ask an honest question: Is the fact that Golley got cancelled evidence that Uigher genocide is now a woke issue? Or that non-woke people are getting on the cancel culture bandwagon?