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I think the aggregate demand curve slopes downwards. I think this because of macroeconomic theory. Because of this model, I can make predictions on how governm

I think the aggregate demand curve slopes downwards. I think this because of macroeconomic theory. Because of this model, I can make predictions on how government spending/borrowing affects consumption and investment. There is good empirical evidence for this. Do you not agree? Why is this astrology?

jrm4 4y ago
A disproportionate number of prominent women in my life are Scorpios. There was good empirical evidence, then, that my daughter would be one too -- and lo and behold, that's what she was born as. If you look enough you can find roughly equal solid empirical evidence in astrology, especially if you honestly include hits and misses. Out in the world, the accuracy, and consequently the utility, of human beings advising one another on actions based on macroeconomic theory has been pretty similar to astrology.
- notahacker 4y ago
  "Roughly equal solid empirical evidence in astrology" feels like a very strong citation needed. Where's astrology's "you can reduce inflation by raising the interest rate" or "actually the Phillips Curve empirical relationship won't remain stable when used as a policymaking tool, here's why..."? This whole argument is roughly "lol, these computer people call themselves scientists and yet my computer has bugs in it".
  - jrm4 4y ago
    Ask the astrologists, I'm sure they will give you ones that are exactly as accurate as the ones the economists will give you.
    - notahacker 4y ago
      There's a certain irony to critiquing the evidence basis of a discipline with "I don't know anything about this, but I'm sure it's exactly as accurate anyway".
      - jrm4 4y ago
        I didn't say "I don't know anything." I'm telling you -- I am certain you could find it because astrologists and macroeconomists are all over the place enough such that you could cherry pick correct ones.
        notahacker 4y ago
        But whilst any idiot can cherry pick many many examples of economists (or physicists or biologists or computer scientists or meteorologists or basically any other field) predicting things with great confidence which turned out to be incorrect or using a model which didn't work very well, you can't cherry pick examples from astrology in which someone predicted a relationship between variables which turned out to be so robust even their greatest rivals consisted it was correct.

jrm4 4y ago

A disproportionate number of prominent women in my life are Scorpios. There was good empirical evidence, then, that my daughter would be one too -- and lo and behold, that's what she was born as. If you look enough you can find roughly equal solid empirical evidence in astrology, especially if you honestly include hits and misses. Out in the world, the accuracy, and consequently the utility, of human beings advising one another on actions based on macroeconomic theory has been pretty similar to astrology.

notahacker 4y ago
"Roughly equal solid empirical evidence in astrology" feels like a very strong citation needed. Where's astrology's "you can reduce inflation by raising the interest rate" or "actually the Phillips Curve empirical relationship won't remain stable when used as a policymaking tool, here's why..."? This whole argument is roughly "lol, these computer people call themselves scientists and yet my computer has bugs in it".
- jrm4 4y ago
  Ask the astrologists, I'm sure they will give you ones that are exactly as accurate as the ones the economists will give you.
  - notahacker 4y ago
    There's a certain irony to critiquing the evidence basis of a discipline with "I don't know anything about this, but I'm sure it's exactly as accurate anyway".
    - jrm4 4y ago
      I didn't say "I don't know anything." I'm telling you -- I am certain you could find it because astrologists and macroeconomists are all over the place enough such that you could cherry pick correct ones.
      - notahacker 4y ago
        But whilst any idiot can cherry pick many many examples of economists (or physicists or biologists or computer scientists or meteorologists or basically any other field) predicting things with great confidence which turned out to be incorrect or using a model which didn't work very well, you can't cherry pick examples from astrology in which someone predicted a relationship between variables which turned out to be so robust even their greatest rivals consisted it was correct.