> Economics is about explaining things after the fact, and incapable of prediction. I would expand on this a bit. The problem with economics is that it's the

> Economics is about explaining things after the fact, and incapable of prediction. I would expand on this a bit. The problem with economics is that it's the study of a type 2 chaotic system, where predictions about the system themselves feedback into the system and change the outcome. Contrasted with a type 1 chaotic system, like weather, where predictions are extremely difficult but can be made without affecting the outcome. Economics is chaotic because conscious actors are extremely unpredictable and change their behavior based on new information. This is something you have to bear in mind whenever you hear an economist or government official make a prediction. The very act of making the prediction public often becomes a self defeating prophecy, because masses of people and money make changes to their future behavior based on the prediction. Also called the Prophet's Dilemma, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-defeating_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-defeating_prophecy. A close relative of the Preparedness Paradox, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preparedness_paradox This is why some of the best predictions are never made public. The best traders don't sell you their strategy. Because as soon as their prediction mechanism becomes too public, it gets absorbed into the system and arbitraged away to worthlessness. That's also why you always must take what government officials say with a grain of salt. They're often not telling you what they really think is going to happen. They're telling you what they think is going to motivate the population to behave in the most productive way given the current environment. Making economic predictions is a grand game of "I know that you know that I know that you know". It's a game of mass manipulation rather than a technical pursuit of simple measurement. It's an art, not a science.