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No, we agree here. I'm not trying to minimize the impact. Factories will shut down, leading to job loses, shortages which will again cause inflation etc. But w

No, we agree here. I'm not trying to minimize the impact. Factories will shut down, leading to job loses, shortages which will again cause inflation etc. But we can't change that anymore. What we can do is build more capacity.

pclmulqdq 4y ago
We can also change policy to make sure we don't get into this kind of situation again. We, as a world, don't seem to want to do that.
sofixa 4y ago
> Factories will shut down, leading to job loses, shortages which will again cause inflation etc Not necessarily. The same thing (forced closures of factories) was handled gracefully without job losses during the pandemic through various unemployment schemes. I see no reason why the same can't happen again.
- pclmulqdq 4y ago
  Those schemes are responsible for tremendous inflation which is part of the reason why energy prices are high compared to incomes today. There is no free lunch.
  - sofixa 4y ago
    They might have contributed, a bit (all they did was replace income from salaries with equivalent income in unemployment money, and cover some enterprise's expenses; the only monetary difference was coming from those who used to spend a lot of money going out to bars and stuff, who couldn't anymore), but let's not kid ourselves. The main reason for the booming inflation is Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting boom in prices of many raw materials, including very important ones like foodstuffs and energy, which are factored in the prices of pretty much everything. I don't understand the people who are hell bent on ignoring that and pinning all the blame on monetary policy. If you really want to blame someone, blame Putin.
    - pclmulqdq 4y ago
      Several prominent economists at Harvard looked at inflation in countries that did and didn't send out stimulus checks. The numbers ranged from 4% to 8%, with stimulus checks strongly correlating with higher inflation. The math disagrees: there was going to be high inflation due to the pandemic and the Ukraine war, but stimulus policies accounted for the majority of the damage.
      - sofixa 4y ago
        Do send out the study. The fact that you're talking about stimulus checks means either you or them are talking about the US, which couldn't be farther in how it handled the pandemic from the EU, which is the topic of the discussion. There are no checks here, we aren't stuck in the past. And all was handled at another layer by preventing layoffs by covering payroll and other expenses for companies instead of allowing layoffs and then sending checks through the mail like it's the 1950s. And yes, the delayed spending and the some extra money will result in inflation, of course. But the impact from the prices of all sorts of crucial raw materials is probably much higher.
origin_path 4y ago
There is obviously another option that people don't want to point out - start buying Russian gas again. The idea they're resisting to sell it is wrong. There's a whole pipeline lying idle ready to go the moment sanctions are lifted. People are acting like this is a natural crisis. It's not, it's an artificial one created by political choices. This will lead to political extremism as voters realize they are freezing or bankrupted because politicians like "standing with Ukraine" more than they like their own citizens. Not every politician will be like that. Some will say, we send weapons and it's not our war anyway. Citizens first, foreigners second. And suddenly that will be mainstream politics.
- anticristi 4y ago
  > start buying Russian gas again I'm afraid Europe bought a one-way ticket. Dependence on Russian energy is no longer a hypothetical issue, but a demonstrated concern. Freezing is not great, but giving the thermostat back to Putin is worse.
- timeon 4y ago
  > There is obviously another option that people don't want to point out - start buying Russian gas again What I think is more likely is that coal is back on the menu.

pclmulqdq 4y ago

We can also change policy to make sure we don't get into this kind of situation again. We, as a world, don't seem to want to do that.

sofixa 4y ago

> Factories will shut down, leading to job loses, shortages which will again cause inflation etc Not necessarily. The same thing (forced closures of factories) was handled gracefully without job losses during the pandemic through various unemployment schemes. I see no reason why the same can't happen again.

pclmulqdq 4y ago
Those schemes are responsible for tremendous inflation which is part of the reason why energy prices are high compared to incomes today. There is no free lunch.
- sofixa 4y ago
  They might have contributed, a bit (all they did was replace income from salaries with equivalent income in unemployment money, and cover some enterprise's expenses; the only monetary difference was coming from those who used to spend a lot of money going out to bars and stuff, who couldn't anymore), but let's not kid ourselves. The main reason for the booming inflation is Russia's invasion of Ukraine and resulting boom in prices of many raw materials, including very important ones like foodstuffs and energy, which are factored in the prices of pretty much everything. I don't understand the people who are hell bent on ignoring that and pinning all the blame on monetary policy. If you really want to blame someone, blame Putin.
  - pclmulqdq 4y ago
    Several prominent economists at Harvard looked at inflation in countries that did and didn't send out stimulus checks. The numbers ranged from 4% to 8%, with stimulus checks strongly correlating with higher inflation. The math disagrees: there was going to be high inflation due to the pandemic and the Ukraine war, but stimulus policies accounted for the majority of the damage.
    - sofixa 4y ago
      Do send out the study. The fact that you're talking about stimulus checks means either you or them are talking about the US, which couldn't be farther in how it handled the pandemic from the EU, which is the topic of the discussion. There are no checks here, we aren't stuck in the past. And all was handled at another layer by preventing layoffs by covering payroll and other expenses for companies instead of allowing layoffs and then sending checks through the mail like it's the 1950s. And yes, the delayed spending and the some extra money will result in inflation, of course. But the impact from the prices of all sorts of crucial raw materials is probably much higher.

origin_path 4y ago

There is obviously another option that people don't want to point out - start buying Russian gas again. The idea they're resisting to sell it is wrong. There's a whole pipeline lying idle ready to go the moment sanctions are lifted. People are acting like this is a natural crisis. It's not, it's an artificial one created by political choices. This will lead to political extremism as voters realize they are freezing or bankrupted because politicians like "standing with Ukraine" more than they like their own citizens. Not every politician will be like that. Some will say, we send weapons and it's not our war anyway. Citizens first, foreigners second. And suddenly that will be mainstream politics.

anticristi 4y ago
> start buying Russian gas again I'm afraid Europe bought a one-way ticket. Dependence on Russian energy is no longer a hypothetical issue, but a demonstrated concern. Freezing is not great, but giving the thermostat back to Putin is worse.
timeon 4y ago
> There is obviously another option that people don't want to point out - start buying Russian gas again What I think is more likely is that coal is back on the menu.