4 ms·

I doubt Russia will be supplying anybody in the West this Winter. Too much “maintenance” to do. But it makes sense from their point of view. The only reason to

I doubt Russia will be supplying anybody in the West this Winter. Too much “maintenance” to do. But it makes sense from their point of view. The only reason to export to the West is to swap for real goods and services from the West. Since the West isn’t selling anything to Russia there’s little economic reason for Russia to sell anything to the West. Russia has its own floating rate currency. It has no need of our promises.

bsaul 4y ago
I don’t believe the narrative that russia is doing just fine. A country with the economy the size of Italy can’t survive being cut of all their major commercial partners and sources of income all of the sudden, while at the same time being blacklisted from all international economical institution. It just isn’t possible. They most likely do all they can to pretend like everything’s ok, hoping the situation will settle before everything explodes.
- moltar 4y ago
  Soviet Union existed not long ago and was pretty much self sustaining even without China. With China being the world producer of everything and being friends with Russia they won’t have any problems getting anything they need.
  - rasz 4y ago
    USSR was "self sustaining" by draining resources out of satellite states. Majority of steel, coal, grain and meat production was earmarked for USSR. As for problems getting anything, they cant even source potatoes for something as basic as fries.
    - moltar 4y ago
      How’s that different today? The satellite friendly states still exist. And they want stuff Russia has? They can trade?
- dbsights 4y ago
  Russia is very different from Italy, they have local production of almost all goods. I think you're right that a western country that was cut off like Russia would have failed as you predict. That Russia hasn't should tell you that your understanding of their situation is wrong. I think we'll really see that this winter.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > A country with the economy the size "Size" of economy is not a real metrics. You can have a huge-ass economy based on providing high-margin services, but it would be worthless if it is not sustainable. On the other hand, take Russia that does not really do much of global market high-margin services economy, but has sustainable enough industries.
- neilwilson 4y ago
  "and sources of income all of the sudden" I explained why it isn't their source of income. They have their own currency with a floating exchange rate. Therefore what you think is their 'source of income' isn't. The FX system means that a Russian exporters 'source of income' (that which they use to pay their staff and suppliers) is the expenditure of the Russian importer, or the generosity of the Russian government sector - primarily the Bank of Russia. [0] In local currency terms it is the Bank of Russia buying the gas, not the EU. That maintains the rouble monetary circulation in Russia, countering the drain to Rouble net savings and taxation. [0]: https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/ https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/

bsaul 4y ago

I don’t believe the narrative that russia is doing just fine. A country with the economy the size of Italy can’t survive being cut of all their major commercial partners and sources of income all of the sudden, while at the same time being blacklisted from all international economical institution. It just isn’t possible. They most likely do all they can to pretend like everything’s ok, hoping the situation will settle before everything explodes.

moltar 4y ago
Soviet Union existed not long ago and was pretty much self sustaining even without China. With China being the world producer of everything and being friends with Russia they won’t have any problems getting anything they need.
- rasz 4y ago
  USSR was "self sustaining" by draining resources out of satellite states. Majority of steel, coal, grain and meat production was earmarked for USSR. As for problems getting anything, they cant even source potatoes for something as basic as fries.
  - moltar 4y ago
    How’s that different today? The satellite friendly states still exist. And they want stuff Russia has? They can trade?
dbsights 4y ago
Russia is very different from Italy, they have local production of almost all goods. I think you're right that a western country that was cut off like Russia would have failed as you predict. That Russia hasn't should tell you that your understanding of their situation is wrong. I think we'll really see that this winter.
foverzar 4y ago
> A country with the economy the size "Size" of economy is not a real metrics. You can have a huge-ass economy based on providing high-margin services, but it would be worthless if it is not sustainable. On the other hand, take Russia that does not really do much of global market high-margin services economy, but has sustainable enough industries.
neilwilson 4y ago
"and sources of income all of the sudden" I explained why it isn't their source of income. They have their own currency with a floating exchange rate. Therefore what you think is their 'source of income' isn't. The FX system means that a Russian exporters 'source of income' (that which they use to pay their staff and suppliers) is the expenditure of the Russian importer, or the generosity of the Russian government sector - primarily the Bank of Russia. [0] In local currency terms it is the Bank of Russia buying the gas, not the EU. That maintains the rouble monetary circulation in Russia, countering the drain to Rouble net savings and taxation. [0]: https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/ https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/