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If europe is destroyed this winter because of riots or total economy collapse, ukrainians won’t have anyone anymore to back them up. It may be an horrible dilem

by bsaul 4y ago

If europe is destroyed this winter because of riots or total economy collapse, ukrainians won’t have anyone anymore to back them up. It may be an horrible dilemma but buying russian gaz while still maintaining embargo on anything else may still be the best sustainable solution to fight russia in the long run.

neilwilson 4y ago
I doubt Russia will be supplying anybody in the West this Winter. Too much “maintenance” to do. But it makes sense from their point of view. The only reason to export to the West is to swap for real goods and services from the West. Since the West isn’t selling anything to Russia there’s little economic reason for Russia to sell anything to the West. Russia has its own floating rate currency. It has no need of our promises.
- bsaul 4y ago
  I don’t believe the narrative that russia is doing just fine. A country with the economy the size of Italy can’t survive being cut of all their major commercial partners and sources of income all of the sudden, while at the same time being blacklisted from all international economical institution. It just isn’t possible. They most likely do all they can to pretend like everything’s ok, hoping the situation will settle before everything explodes.
  - moltar 4y ago
    Soviet Union existed not long ago and was pretty much self sustaining even without China. With China being the world producer of everything and being friends with Russia they won’t have any problems getting anything they need.
    - rasz 4y ago
      USSR was "self sustaining" by draining resources out of satellite states. Majority of steel, coal, grain and meat production was earmarked for USSR. As for problems getting anything, they cant even source potatoes for something as basic as fries.
      - moltar 4y ago
        How’s that different today? The satellite friendly states still exist. And they want stuff Russia has? They can trade?
  - dbsights 4y ago
    Russia is very different from Italy, they have local production of almost all goods. I think you're right that a western country that was cut off like Russia would have failed as you predict. That Russia hasn't should tell you that your understanding of their situation is wrong. I think we'll really see that this winter.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > A country with the economy the size "Size" of economy is not a real metrics. You can have a huge-ass economy based on providing high-margin services, but it would be worthless if it is not sustainable. On the other hand, take Russia that does not really do much of global market high-margin services economy, but has sustainable enough industries.
  - neilwilson 4y ago
    "and sources of income all of the sudden" I explained why it isn't their source of income. They have their own currency with a floating exchange rate. Therefore what you think is their 'source of income' isn't. The FX system means that a Russian exporters 'source of income' (that which they use to pay their staff and suppliers) is the expenditure of the Russian importer, or the generosity of the Russian government sector - primarily the Bank of Russia. [0] In local currency terms it is the Bank of Russia buying the gas, not the EU. That maintains the rouble monetary circulation in Russia, countering the drain to Rouble net savings and taxation. [0]: https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/ https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/
anon9384929 4y ago
This comment conveniently ignores the worlds sole superpower? The US will be more or less fine this winter, and likely sees a crisis like this as an awfully cheap way to get rid of one of its only real military competitors.
ben_w 4y ago
I think there's room for a lot of possible outcomes worse than zero fuel from Russia and also better than total economic collapse of Europe. I mean, Europe's got something like 7 times the economy of Russia. And two European countries also have nukes and are on the UN permanent security council. If the sanctions against Russia weren't enough to stop the war, this winter is unlikely to be bad enough to stop Europen support of Ukraine. Conversely, if Russia finds that it can wield its fuel as a weapon capable of destroying Europe by either riots or total economic collapse, then Europe automatically has an existential threat that only ends when Russia can no longer play that card. And America will do what serves American interests, not necessarily what serves European interests, and they're not threatened by Russia cutting off its gas exports.

by bsaul 4y ago

neilwilson 4y ago

I doubt Russia will be supplying anybody in the West this Winter. Too much “maintenance” to do. But it makes sense from their point of view. The only reason to export to the West is to swap for real goods and services from the West. Since the West isn’t selling anything to Russia there’s little economic reason for Russia to sell anything to the West. Russia has its own floating rate currency. It has no need of our promises.

bsaul 4y ago
I don’t believe the narrative that russia is doing just fine. A country with the economy the size of Italy can’t survive being cut of all their major commercial partners and sources of income all of the sudden, while at the same time being blacklisted from all international economical institution. It just isn’t possible. They most likely do all they can to pretend like everything’s ok, hoping the situation will settle before everything explodes.
- moltar 4y ago
  Soviet Union existed not long ago and was pretty much self sustaining even without China. With China being the world producer of everything and being friends with Russia they won’t have any problems getting anything they need.
  - rasz 4y ago
    USSR was "self sustaining" by draining resources out of satellite states. Majority of steel, coal, grain and meat production was earmarked for USSR. As for problems getting anything, they cant even source potatoes for something as basic as fries.
    - moltar 4y ago
      How’s that different today? The satellite friendly states still exist. And they want stuff Russia has? They can trade?
- dbsights 4y ago
  Russia is very different from Italy, they have local production of almost all goods. I think you're right that a western country that was cut off like Russia would have failed as you predict. That Russia hasn't should tell you that your understanding of their situation is wrong. I think we'll really see that this winter.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > A country with the economy the size "Size" of economy is not a real metrics. You can have a huge-ass economy based on providing high-margin services, but it would be worthless if it is not sustainable. On the other hand, take Russia that does not really do much of global market high-margin services economy, but has sustainable enough industries.
- neilwilson 4y ago
  "and sources of income all of the sudden" I explained why it isn't their source of income. They have their own currency with a floating exchange rate. Therefore what you think is their 'source of income' isn't. The FX system means that a Russian exporters 'source of income' (that which they use to pay their staff and suppliers) is the expenditure of the Russian importer, or the generosity of the Russian government sector - primarily the Bank of Russia. [0] In local currency terms it is the Bank of Russia buying the gas, not the EU. That maintains the rouble monetary circulation in Russia, countering the drain to Rouble net savings and taxation. [0]: https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/ https://new-wayland.com/blog/how-russian-gas-is-paid-for/

anon9384929 4y ago

This comment conveniently ignores the worlds sole superpower? The US will be more or less fine this winter, and likely sees a crisis like this as an awfully cheap way to get rid of one of its only real military competitors.

ben_w 4y ago

I think there's room for a lot of possible outcomes worse than zero fuel from Russia and also better than total economic collapse of Europe. I mean, Europe's got something like 7 times the economy of Russia. And two European countries also have nukes and are on the UN permanent security council. If the sanctions against Russia weren't enough to stop the war, this winter is unlikely to be bad enough to stop Europen support of Ukraine. Conversely, if Russia finds that it can wield its fuel as a weapon capable of destroying Europe by either riots or total economic collapse, then Europe automatically has an existential threat that only ends when Russia can no longer play that card. And America will do what serves American interests, not necessarily what serves European interests, and they're not threatened by Russia cutting off its gas exports.