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Lex Fridman’s podcast had an ex-CIA agent on it recently and he mentioned how bcs of issues like this in Europe the war in Ukraine has to end by the fall. His w

by ramoq 4y ago

Lex Fridman’s podcast had an ex-CIA agent on it recently and he mentioned how bcs of issues like this in Europe the war in Ukraine has to end by the fall. His words were “NATO needs Russian sanctions lifted”. He implied the war will be over by the fall (in his assessment).

christophilus 4y ago
Didn’t listen to the podcast, but that seems right. The world’s oil producers have everyone by the shorthairs, and it will be undeniable in a few month’s time. I think Russia will get away with whatever they please because of this. It’ll be interesting to see what the narrative looks like this time next year.
- short_sells_poo 4y ago
  Russia has been biding their time, occasionally showing that they are willing to turn off the tap. They clearly want to save the weapon for winter though. When temperatures drop, Russia will sadly have the entirety of Europe by the balls. It is simply unthinkable that the population will be willing to stomach blackouts or not being able to heat their homes. I don't see a way out but the unfortunate outcome that Ukraine will be sacrificed.
  - generalizations 4y ago
    Considering even people here on HN foresaw that exact outcome within days/weeks of the initial invasion, the current situation stinks of some extreme incompetence within NATO.
    - short_sells_poo 4y ago
      I genuinely don't understand what was the plan. Maybe they were hoping that Putin will fall before then? That'd be very shortsighted and a fundamental misunderstanding of the regime.
      - generalizations 4y ago
        I agree. Maybe they believed the reports that Putin was dying? Maybe they counted on guerrilla fighters forcing Putin to give up? Maybe they just knew that after building russia up as the "big bad" for the last long while (or maybe that was just the US), it would be political suicide for whichever politician first suggested capitulation. Probably still is political suicide. The prisoners dilemma at its finest.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    Seize the windfall profits going to gas producers and give it to people to find non-gas ways to heat their homes.
    - short_sells_poo 4y ago
      The profit is going Russia who supplies the majority of Europe's gas. There's nothing to seize since they can turn off the tap and Europe will literally freeze. Basically, Europe is buying less than half the usual supply of gas at 6x the price right now :(
      - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
        Norway made three times as much this year from gas sales. It's a market, and the thing that is causing the price spikes is Russia cutting off their supply. They'll still profit from the higher prices on the reduced supply, but so will everyone else who sells on the market at the market price. Basically war profiteering.
        mimikatz 4y ago
        Economics is a science. If you try to push one way on the market price you will get problems on the other side, this is the same way you can't get past the laws of thermodynamics) . The cost of reducing people's profits (or cost is what we are talking about) will be shortages because people will still be willing to pay for more electricity at a higher price, they just won't be able to find it because it was sold at a lower price.
        ZeroGravitas 4y ago
        I explicitly dont want to reduce the price of gas. Because high prices make people use less and switch to alternatives, which is what is required when you are short on something. But siezing the windfall profits is also basic economics orthodoxy. https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/19/nobel-prize-winning-economist-joseph-stiglitz-calls-for-windfall-profits-tax-in-australia https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/19/nobel-pri... > The Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has called for a windfall profits tax, arguing the idea is a “no-brainer” that has been taken off the table due to the influence of big companies
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
CIA favouring invasions of other countries and corporate profits over anything that vaguely smells like socialism and helps ordinary people sounds historically consistent at least.
peteradio 4y ago
What does this imply exactly? Europe acquiesces to Russia in totality, thus ending the war? What is Russia's completed goal in their current incursion?
- bsaul 4y ago
  Ukraine split in two : one pro-russia in the east, another pro-west in the west. Half a loss for the russian that showed the world their military wasn’t as good as they thought. Half a loss for the EU that showed their economical weakness as they couldn’t make a medium country’s economy explode even if they did all they had in their power. And globally a huge win for the US. Honestly, i hope this serves as a warning for the EU citizen: we have very average people taking decisions in the EU governance.
  - timeon 4y ago
    > Half a loss for the EU that showed their economical weakness as they couldn’t make a medium country’s economy explode even if they did all they had in their power. This goes also for the US.
rr808 4y ago
You give in to a bully once you're done for. They'll just keep wanting more.
- bsaul 4y ago
  That’s the logic we’ve followed. However we rushed like little kids, making the same mistake putin did with ukraine: we thought by putting enough pressure, russia would explode in a few weeks. It seems obvious now that the people in charge in EU lacked serious strategical skills. We followed our emotions, did a lot of communication, we made ourselves look good, but ultimately we could end up with the worst of all options: ukraine split in two, and an economical disaster for the whole EU. Only the US will exit from the crisis with a fantastic improvement (like every time europe starts an internal war).
  - rr808 4y ago
    > ukraine split in two, and an economical disaster for the whole EU. Well no, the worst option was going to happen, Russia takes over Ukraine, then takes over Transnistra/Modova, solidifies its hold over Belarus, then why not take over Eastern Europe again. Splitting Ukraine and having expensive gas and a recession isn't so bad. Of course taking back Crimea is what we should be aiming for.
rasz 4y ago
A much easier plan delivering similar outcome would involve blowing up Nord Stream 1 & 2 right now.

by ramoq 4y ago

christophilus 4y ago

Didn’t listen to the podcast, but that seems right. The world’s oil producers have everyone by the shorthairs, and it will be undeniable in a few month’s time. I think Russia will get away with whatever they please because of this. It’ll be interesting to see what the narrative looks like this time next year.

short_sells_poo 4y ago
Russia has been biding their time, occasionally showing that they are willing to turn off the tap. They clearly want to save the weapon for winter though. When temperatures drop, Russia will sadly have the entirety of Europe by the balls. It is simply unthinkable that the population will be willing to stomach blackouts or not being able to heat their homes. I don't see a way out but the unfortunate outcome that Ukraine will be sacrificed.
- generalizations 4y ago
  Considering even people here on HN foresaw that exact outcome within days/weeks of the initial invasion, the current situation stinks of some extreme incompetence within NATO.
  - short_sells_poo 4y ago
    I genuinely don't understand what was the plan. Maybe they were hoping that Putin will fall before then? That'd be very shortsighted and a fundamental misunderstanding of the regime.
    - generalizations 4y ago
      I agree. Maybe they believed the reports that Putin was dying? Maybe they counted on guerrilla fighters forcing Putin to give up? Maybe they just knew that after building russia up as the "big bad" for the last long while (or maybe that was just the US), it would be political suicide for whichever politician first suggested capitulation. Probably still is political suicide. The prisoners dilemma at its finest.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  Seize the windfall profits going to gas producers and give it to people to find non-gas ways to heat their homes.
  - short_sells_poo 4y ago
    The profit is going Russia who supplies the majority of Europe's gas. There's nothing to seize since they can turn off the tap and Europe will literally freeze. Basically, Europe is buying less than half the usual supply of gas at 6x the price right now :(
    - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
      Norway made three times as much this year from gas sales. It's a market, and the thing that is causing the price spikes is Russia cutting off their supply. They'll still profit from the higher prices on the reduced supply, but so will everyone else who sells on the market at the market price. Basically war profiteering.
      - mimikatz 4y ago
        Economics is a science. If you try to push one way on the market price you will get problems on the other side, this is the same way you can't get past the laws of thermodynamics) . The cost of reducing people's profits (or cost is what we are talking about) will be shortages because people will still be willing to pay for more electricity at a higher price, they just won't be able to find it because it was sold at a lower price.
        ZeroGravitas 4y ago
        I explicitly dont want to reduce the price of gas. Because high prices make people use less and switch to alternatives, which is what is required when you are short on something. But siezing the windfall profits is also basic economics orthodoxy. https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/19/nobel-prize-winning-economist-joseph-stiglitz-calls-for-windfall-profits-tax-in-australia https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/19/nobel-pri... > The Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz has called for a windfall profits tax, arguing the idea is a “no-brainer” that has been taken off the table due to the influence of big companies

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

CIA favouring invasions of other countries and corporate profits over anything that vaguely smells like socialism and helps ordinary people sounds historically consistent at least.

peteradio 4y ago

What does this imply exactly? Europe acquiesces to Russia in totality, thus ending the war? What is Russia's completed goal in their current incursion?

bsaul 4y ago
Ukraine split in two : one pro-russia in the east, another pro-west in the west. Half a loss for the russian that showed the world their military wasn’t as good as they thought. Half a loss for the EU that showed their economical weakness as they couldn’t make a medium country’s economy explode even if they did all they had in their power. And globally a huge win for the US. Honestly, i hope this serves as a warning for the EU citizen: we have very average people taking decisions in the EU governance.
- timeon 4y ago
  > Half a loss for the EU that showed their economical weakness as they couldn’t make a medium country’s economy explode even if they did all they had in their power. This goes also for the US.

rr808 4y ago

You give in to a bully once you're done for. They'll just keep wanting more.

bsaul 4y ago
That’s the logic we’ve followed. However we rushed like little kids, making the same mistake putin did with ukraine: we thought by putting enough pressure, russia would explode in a few weeks. It seems obvious now that the people in charge in EU lacked serious strategical skills. We followed our emotions, did a lot of communication, we made ourselves look good, but ultimately we could end up with the worst of all options: ukraine split in two, and an economical disaster for the whole EU. Only the US will exit from the crisis with a fantastic improvement (like every time europe starts an internal war).
- rr808 4y ago
  > ukraine split in two, and an economical disaster for the whole EU. Well no, the worst option was going to happen, Russia takes over Ukraine, then takes over Transnistra/Modova, solidifies its hold over Belarus, then why not take over Eastern Europe again. Splitting Ukraine and having expensive gas and a recession isn't so bad. Of course taking back Crimea is what we should be aiming for.

rasz 4y ago

A much easier plan delivering similar outcome would involve blowing up Nord Stream 1 & 2 right now.