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"EV will need its batteries replaced every N years at a substantial all-at-once price" You can count on replacing them in 8-10 years. It is currently a false e

"EV will need its batteries replaced every N years at a substantial all-at-once price" You can count on replacing them in 8-10 years. It is currently a false economy based upon a false narrative to buy an electric car. At $6.00/gal you can buy about 1333 gallons of fuel which translates into about 3 years of fuel purchases. It might make economic sense if the government stops increasing the price of EV by subsidizing them. At $3.00/gal it doesn't make sense because of the added cost of an EV. It is price prohibitive for the majority of voting Americans.

deleted 4y ago
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nullc 4y ago
Yeah, I left it at N because didn't want to debate the replacement interval: The point I'm making holds just so long as you agree that EVs need battery replacements much more often than ICE need major repairs. I think that's not debatable... and also because my personal experience is driven by the leaf which probably has the worst battery endurance of any of the mass market EVs. EV total cost can be somewhat lower or substantially higher depending on your beliefs about battery lifetimes and your usage levels. There are many factors that go in to battery lifetime so its easy to debate endlessly-- one of the reasons we really wanted to increase the battery size was so that we could usually charge it to only 80% which should substantially improve the battery life. This is in contrast to an ICE where, especially in California or other moderate humidity low rainfall environments, an unused ICE will basically last forever. Some property I bought had a old 1940s military truck on it that at some point had been changed to 12v, and had not been driven since ~1990. We got it running fine with two afternoons of tinkering and a visit to the auto parts store, after replacing some cables and rubber parts that had degraded. And even with regular commuter use its totally realistic to get decades of use out of an ICE with nothing but intermittent couple hundred dollar maintenance expenses here and there, O2 sensors, pumps, etc.
- freedude 4y ago
  Exactly. Even in the midwest where humidity, salt and freezing temps are significant issues the 1940s tech can still work after much disuse if care is taken to get it running properly. Check out youtube there are plenty of "Will it run" videos highlighting this design feature. Now put a current technology battery in a similar situation and by comparison it is depressing. What we stand to lose is important to retain. I would love to see EV work well at replacing ICE. It is not today's reality for me or many others in my demographic (outside of the suburban coastal metro areas). Perhaps when Aluminum, Sulfur, Salt batteries are available that will change. We'll see how that new tech develops.
Tagbert 4y ago
Not sure where you are getting that 8-10 year replacement cycle for EV batteries. Other than the original Leaf batteries, which had no thermal management, most reputable investigations have shown an expected life of around 200,000 miles for a battery. Newer chemistries like LFP promise even longer life. If you are basing that 8-10 on the warranty offered by manufacturers, then I assume that you expect a gasoline engine to need to be replaced at 36,000 miles.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

nullc 4y ago

Yeah, I left it at N because didn't want to debate the replacement interval: The point I'm making holds just so long as you agree that EVs need battery replacements much more often than ICE need major repairs. I think that's not debatable... and also because my personal experience is driven by the leaf which probably has the worst battery endurance of any of the mass market EVs. EV total cost can be somewhat lower or substantially higher depending on your beliefs about battery lifetimes and your usage levels. There are many factors that go in to battery lifetime so its easy to debate endlessly-- one of the reasons we really wanted to increase the battery size was so that we could usually charge it to only 80% which should substantially improve the battery life. This is in contrast to an ICE where, especially in California or other moderate humidity low rainfall environments, an unused ICE will basically last forever. Some property I bought had a old 1940s military truck on it that at some point had been changed to 12v, and had not been driven since ~1990. We got it running fine with two afternoons of tinkering and a visit to the auto parts store, after replacing some cables and rubber parts that had degraded. And even with regular commuter use its totally realistic to get decades of use out of an ICE with nothing but intermittent couple hundred dollar maintenance expenses here and there, O2 sensors, pumps, etc.

freedude 4y ago
Exactly. Even in the midwest where humidity, salt and freezing temps are significant issues the 1940s tech can still work after much disuse if care is taken to get it running properly. Check out youtube there are plenty of "Will it run" videos highlighting this design feature. Now put a current technology battery in a similar situation and by comparison it is depressing. What we stand to lose is important to retain. I would love to see EV work well at replacing ICE. It is not today's reality for me or many others in my demographic (outside of the suburban coastal metro areas). Perhaps when Aluminum, Sulfur, Salt batteries are available that will change. We'll see how that new tech develops.

Tagbert 4y ago

Not sure where you are getting that 8-10 year replacement cycle for EV batteries. Other than the original Leaf batteries, which had no thermal management, most reputable investigations have shown an expected life of around 200,000 miles for a battery. Newer chemistries like LFP promise even longer life. If you are basing that 8-10 on the warranty offered by manufacturers, then I assume that you expect a gasoline engine to need to be replaced at 36,000 miles.