7 ms·

California votes to ban new gas car sales by 2035

29 points by ajdude 4y ago

LatteLazy 4y ago
>California votes to take no action for at least 13 years, and then look at the issue again I know it's very limited what Cali can actually do and they already do a lot and there are good arguments to do nothing. But I just hate these dumb long dated "commitments". They're how we got INTO this mess...
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  What are you suggesting here? The first line of the article is: > California air regulators voted Thursday to approve stringent rules that would ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035 and set interim targets to phase the cars out. edit to add even more detail: > The board's new rules would also set interim quotas for zero-emission vehicles, focusing on new models. Starting with 2026 models, 35% of new cars, SUVs and small pickups sold in California would be required to be zero-emission vehicles. That quota would increase each year and is expected to reach 51% of all new car sales in 2028, 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. The quotas also would allow 20% of zero-emission cars sold to be plug-in hybrids.
- UncleEntity 4y ago
  I’m not seeing that quote anywhere in TFA. And, you know, it’s not like California can bring a bunch of power plants (in other states) online fast enough to ban all ICE vehicles tomorrow.
bsaul 4y ago
are there any other car manufacturer that provide descent autonomy beyond tesla at the moment ? 2035 seems awfully close looking at the quality of current models available..
- wolrah 4y ago
  > are there any other car manufacturer that provide descent autonomy beyond tesla at the moment ? GM SuperCruise and Ford BlueCruise are generally regarded to be better at actually driving than Tesla's cameras-only approach. They are geofenced to only work on properly mapped highways instead of just letting any idiot YOLO it and claim they're "testing" so they don't get as much attention but they also haven't killed multiple people in the process. Tesla has a Level 2 ADAS system just like everyone else, they just market it as more than it actually is. Mercedes is about to launch a Level 3 system where they actually take liability when the computer is in control. They will be the first to do so. > 2035 seems awfully close looking at the quality of current models available.. Curious what you mean by this, there are currently a decent selection of EVs from a variety of manufacturers that all match the level of quality you'd expect from the brand. The main limitations for wider availability and use are the still developing public charging infrastructure and the same cost/supply chain issues affecting basically all cars, ICE or EV. The cars aren't the problem at this point, it's figuring out how to allow those of us who rent in dense areas to charge at home. Solve that and you're left with just the long distance road trippers and trailer towers actually needing to burn fuel.
  - dominotw 4y ago
    > The cars aren't the problem at this point, it's figuring out how to allow those of us who rent in dense areas to charge at home. This has stopped me from buying an EV. I park on the street. homes here have no dedicated garages to install EV charger. How are they planning to solve this in a little over a decade.
    - smileysteve 4y ago
      Near me, the gas stations and power companies are working together to install chargers. My state installed chargers at most state parks and "welcome center" rest stops, and many popular shopping centers, offices, and condo parking garages installed - as early as 2012. Nobody currently fills their gas powered cars in street parking.
      - seanw444 4y ago
- clouddrover 4y ago
  By autonomy you might mean range or autonomous driving. Tesla doesn't lead in range: https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/ https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/ Tesla struggles with FSP (full self-parking): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA Tesla doesn't take liability for its semi-autonomous driving, whereas Mercedes does: https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes-benz-eqs-drive-pilot-drive/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes... There are many areas Tesla doesn't lead.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- duped 4y ago
  Why is autonomy the feature that matters? Drivetrain and cost matter far, far more. We're not ripping up the entire national infrastructure in the next 13 years.
  - clouddrover 4y ago
    Autonomy also means range.
irthomasthomas 4y ago
A car requires about as much, or even more CO2 for its manufacturing, than a lifetime of driving. And EV manufacturing uses 40% more CO2 than ICE cars [0]. Naturally, that difference comes from the batteries and the extra weight needed to accommodate them. Batteries are dense and heavy, carbon intensive in mining and manufacturing. In addition, batteries are also ecologically harmful at every stage of their lifecycle. So, EV cars take a long time before CO2 savings are seen, and they may not be seen at all. Accounting for the current mix of clean Vs dirty energy in our electricity supply, nations would need to invest many $trillions in building a clean energy network, before EV cars become a net negative CO2 force. But that would also require intense mining and manufacturing, which, if not revolutionised, first, will necessarily cause a dramatic surge in CO2 production. There is no way around this problem, except to clean up manufacturing and supply chain, first. Selling people EVs is trying to solve the problem from the wrong end. But it perpetuates the myth that CO2 levels, and/or climate change are a simple function of consumer choice. [0] "The emissions from Materials production and refining of the ICE are roughly 40 per cent less than for the BEV" https://www.volvocars.com/images/v/-/media/project/contentplatform/data/media/my23/xc40-electric-light/volvo-cars-LCA-report-xc40.pdf https://www.volvocars.com/images/v/-/media/project/contentpl...
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  - Jtype 4y ago
    You don't provide any evidence to refute OP, and you use vitriol in your reply. EV cars use more rare elements that require more mining is true. So one would assume that the initial CO2 generated in the productions to be higher. The grid isn't 100% renewable so there is plenty of co2 produced in running an EV. EV batteries wear out around 100000 miles, requiring a costly(both $$ and CO2 production) replacement. Meanwhile ICE cars today can regularly approach 200000 miles before replacement. With those three things considered, I highly doubt that CO2 production is impacted all that strongly by switching to an EV.
    - 4y ago
therealjumbo 4y ago
They also banned youth clay sporting leagues: https://thereload.com/california-youth-shooting-sports-league-shuts-down-in-wake-of-advertising-ban/ https://thereload.com/california-youth-shooting-sports-leagu... edit: spelling
nullc 4y ago
I worry that the transition from ICE to EV will exacerbate economic disparities because of the cashflow challenges of battery replacement. Today you can go out and buy a used ICE car for a fraction of a new price and then operate it with almost all further operating and maintaince costs being incremental and small unless you get into an accident or have a (quite rare) major drive-train failure, which effectively total the used car since they cost more to fix than getting another similar used car. By comparison the EV will need its batteries replaced every N years at a substantial all-at-once price, which is currently at a scale of 2x what a perfectly usable ICE used car costs. The EV's TCO still is better or competitive with the ICE car because the extra cost of battery replacement is offset by reduced fuel costs and maintenance costs. But this is a reduction of many pay-as-you-go incremental costs and a replacement with a big upfront cost, and so it imposes a significant cashflow burden. To put concrete figures, my spouse bought a used Nissan Leaf a number of years ago for a price a bit higher than a comparable classed used ICE car would cost. At the time, we priced out the replacement battery in order to account for the future expense we could expect and IIRC were quoted $8k by Nissan. A number of years pass and the battery degrades, eventually getting down to a range of only ~45 miles which was becoming unusable for us. We contact Nissan about a replacement and are informed that the price was then $12k, and that's still with the original 24kwh battery type, not newer technology. 12k would buy you _two_ perfectly usable used ICE cars from a used car dealer, maybe three in private party transactions. We were able to find a mechanic that was able to install a 40KWh battery from a more recent generation all in for about the $8k we were anticipating, so we were ultimately happy with the outcome. But when I think back to prior points in my life when I wasn't wealthy, these kinds of cashflow hits would have been devastating. Probably the biggest day to day difference between being poor or not is having access to the cash flow required to take on large infrequent expenses. So I worry that this transition to EV will force many more less wealthy people into predatory financing. Access to transportation is key to economic mobility, since without it people are limited to whatever jobs are accessible from where they live and are limited in where they live accessible to where they work. Today people of limited means can own a car outright, and it's less clear to me that this is true in a EV world given today's battery economics. I've seen a lot of discussion and debate over the total cost of EV's putting them out of reach of the less wealthy, and from my own analysis I agree that shouldn't be a major issue now. But I haven't seen any discussion about the cashflow impacts, which I think are very important too. There seems to be a lot of hope that battery economics will continue to improve dramatically and I share it. But it's already improved dramatically and after some amount those improvements should diminish. I find it hard to accept that we should be setting public policy based on conjectural improvements that are far from guaranteed even in the sense of "if we adopt it the prices will drop".
Arete314159 4y ago
We keep being fed the lie that we can solve climate change by buying different versions of the same stuff, no sacrifice involved. The best car is a train or a bus. Some situations definitely require cars, especially when folks are disabled or when temperatures of 100+ degrees make it difficult to wait for a bus. But this is just a different type of theatre. Public transit is the only real way to decrease CO2 emissions.
- JohnClark1337 4y ago
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  And the best bus is an EV bus. Not sure if that counts as just buying different versions of the same stuff. Nothing on its own fixes this. No one is suggesting to only do one thing (apart from maybe the people who are monomaniacal about nuclear or carbon taxes. Both good solutions but they seem mostly to be wielded as weapons to stop all the other stuff happening).
jmrm 4y ago
The EU executed a similar warrant some time ago, not only in banning new ICE cars sales by 2035, but also banning "highly pollutant" cars in the centre of some cities in a short time period and making a lot of changes in cars to pollute less and to have more active security systems (making all cars more expensive). The only movement this warrant has made very effective is making citizens have FUD about what car to buy and what not to buy, making some people settle with their old car for longer time than they expected waiting for better prices and better infrastructures for EVs, and making others to buy a new petrol engine cars to replace their Diesel one to be able to enter in city centres in the next years. I don't know how this is going to end, but there are a lot of sacrifices people can't do, and others that people doesn't want to do, and I don't know any country that is doing a decent strategy in this matter. I would say we would use public transportation with combination of some kind of car sharing in most urban areas, and private owned EVs in more remote and rural areas, where having a private parking spot is common and you can install a charger without problems.

29 points by ajdude 4y ago

>California votes to take no action for at least 13 years, and then look at the issue again I know it's very limited what Cali can actually do and they already do a lot and there are good arguments to do nothing. But I just hate these dumb long dated "commitments". They're how we got INTO this mess...

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
What are you suggesting here? The first line of the article is: > California air regulators voted Thursday to approve stringent rules that would ban the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035 and set interim targets to phase the cars out. edit to add even more detail: > The board's new rules would also set interim quotas for zero-emission vehicles, focusing on new models. Starting with 2026 models, 35% of new cars, SUVs and small pickups sold in California would be required to be zero-emission vehicles. That quota would increase each year and is expected to reach 51% of all new car sales in 2028, 68% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. The quotas also would allow 20% of zero-emission cars sold to be plug-in hybrids.
UncleEntity 4y ago
I’m not seeing that quote anywhere in TFA. And, you know, it’s not like California can bring a bunch of power plants (in other states) online fast enough to ban all ICE vehicles tomorrow.

bsaul 4y ago

are there any other car manufacturer that provide descent autonomy beyond tesla at the moment ? 2035 seems awfully close looking at the quality of current models available..

wolrah 4y ago
> are there any other car manufacturer that provide descent autonomy beyond tesla at the moment ? GM SuperCruise and Ford BlueCruise are generally regarded to be better at actually driving than Tesla's cameras-only approach. They are geofenced to only work on properly mapped highways instead of just letting any idiot YOLO it and claim they're "testing" so they don't get as much attention but they also haven't killed multiple people in the process. Tesla has a Level 2 ADAS system just like everyone else, they just market it as more than it actually is. Mercedes is about to launch a Level 3 system where they actually take liability when the computer is in control. They will be the first to do so. > 2035 seems awfully close looking at the quality of current models available.. Curious what you mean by this, there are currently a decent selection of EVs from a variety of manufacturers that all match the level of quality you'd expect from the brand. The main limitations for wider availability and use are the still developing public charging infrastructure and the same cost/supply chain issues affecting basically all cars, ICE or EV. The cars aren't the problem at this point, it's figuring out how to allow those of us who rent in dense areas to charge at home. Solve that and you're left with just the long distance road trippers and trailer towers actually needing to burn fuel.
- dominotw 4y ago
  > The cars aren't the problem at this point, it's figuring out how to allow those of us who rent in dense areas to charge at home. This has stopped me from buying an EV. I park on the street. homes here have no dedicated garages to install EV charger. How are they planning to solve this in a little over a decade.
  - smileysteve 4y ago
    Near me, the gas stations and power companies are working together to install chargers. My state installed chargers at most state parks and "welcome center" rest stops, and many popular shopping centers, offices, and condo parking garages installed - as early as 2012. Nobody currently fills their gas powered cars in street parking.
    - seanw444 4y ago
clouddrover 4y ago
By autonomy you might mean range or autonomous driving. Tesla doesn't lead in range: https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/ https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/ Tesla struggles with FSP (full self-parking): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsb2XBAIWyA Tesla doesn't take liability for its semi-autonomous driving, whereas Mercedes does: https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes-benz-eqs-drive-pilot-drive/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes... There are many areas Tesla doesn't lead.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
duped 4y ago
Why is autonomy the feature that matters? Drivetrain and cost matter far, far more. We're not ripping up the entire national infrastructure in the next 13 years.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  Autonomy also means range.

irthomasthomas 4y ago

A car requires about as much, or even more CO2 for its manufacturing, than a lifetime of driving. And EV manufacturing uses 40% more CO2 than ICE cars [0]. Naturally, that difference comes from the batteries and the extra weight needed to accommodate them. Batteries are dense and heavy, carbon intensive in mining and manufacturing. In addition, batteries are also ecologically harmful at every stage of their lifecycle. So, EV cars take a long time before CO2 savings are seen, and they may not be seen at all. Accounting for the current mix of clean Vs dirty energy in our electricity supply, nations would need to invest many $trillions in building a clean energy network, before EV cars become a net negative CO2 force. But that would also require intense mining and manufacturing, which, if not revolutionised, first, will necessarily cause a dramatic surge in CO2 production. There is no way around this problem, except to clean up manufacturing and supply chain, first. Selling people EVs is trying to solve the problem from the wrong end. But it perpetuates the myth that CO2 levels, and/or climate change are a simple function of consumer choice. [0] "The emissions from Materials production and refining of the ICE are roughly 40 per cent less than for the BEV" https://www.volvocars.com/images/v/-/media/project/contentplatform/data/media/my23/xc40-electric-light/volvo-cars-LCA-report-xc40.pdf https://www.volvocars.com/images/v/-/media/project/contentpl...

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
- Jtype 4y ago
  You don't provide any evidence to refute OP, and you use vitriol in your reply. EV cars use more rare elements that require more mining is true. So one would assume that the initial CO2 generated in the productions to be higher. The grid isn't 100% renewable so there is plenty of co2 produced in running an EV. EV batteries wear out around 100000 miles, requiring a costly(both $$ and CO2 production) replacement. Meanwhile ICE cars today can regularly approach 200000 miles before replacement. With those three things considered, I highly doubt that CO2 production is impacted all that strongly by switching to an EV.
  - 4y ago

therealjumbo 4y ago

They also banned youth clay sporting leagues: https://thereload.com/california-youth-shooting-sports-league-shuts-down-in-wake-of-advertising-ban/ https://thereload.com/california-youth-shooting-sports-leagu... edit: spelling

nullc 4y ago

I worry that the transition from ICE to EV will exacerbate economic disparities because of the cashflow challenges of battery replacement. Today you can go out and buy a used ICE car for a fraction of a new price and then operate it with almost all further operating and maintaince costs being incremental and small unless you get into an accident or have a (quite rare) major drive-train failure, which effectively total the used car since they cost more to fix than getting another similar used car. By comparison the EV will need its batteries replaced every N years at a substantial all-at-once price, which is currently at a scale of 2x what a perfectly usable ICE used car costs. The EV's TCO still is better or competitive with the ICE car because the extra cost of battery replacement is offset by reduced fuel costs and maintenance costs. But this is a reduction of many pay-as-you-go incremental costs and a replacement with a big upfront cost, and so it imposes a significant cashflow burden. To put concrete figures, my spouse bought a used Nissan Leaf a number of years ago for a price a bit higher than a comparable classed used ICE car would cost. At the time, we priced out the replacement battery in order to account for the future expense we could expect and IIRC were quoted $8k by Nissan. A number of years pass and the battery degrades, eventually getting down to a range of only ~45 miles which was becoming unusable for us. We contact Nissan about a replacement and are informed that the price was then $12k, and that's still with the original 24kwh battery type, not newer technology. 12k would buy you _two_ perfectly usable used ICE cars from a used car dealer, maybe three in private party transactions. We were able to find a mechanic that was able to install a 40KWh battery from a more recent generation all in for about the $8k we were anticipating, so we were ultimately happy with the outcome. But when I think back to prior points in my life when I wasn't wealthy, these kinds of cashflow hits would have been devastating. Probably the biggest day to day difference between being poor or not is having access to the cash flow required to take on large infrequent expenses. So I worry that this transition to EV will force many more less wealthy people into predatory financing. Access to transportation is key to economic mobility, since without it people are limited to whatever jobs are accessible from where they live and are limited in where they live accessible to where they work. Today people of limited means can own a car outright, and it's less clear to me that this is true in a EV world given today's battery economics. I've seen a lot of discussion and debate over the total cost of EV's putting them out of reach of the less wealthy, and from my own analysis I agree that shouldn't be a major issue now. But I haven't seen any discussion about the cashflow impacts, which I think are very important too. There seems to be a lot of hope that battery economics will continue to improve dramatically and I share it. But it's already improved dramatically and after some amount those improvements should diminish. I find it hard to accept that we should be setting public policy based on conjectural improvements that are far from guaranteed even in the sense of "if we adopt it the prices will drop".

Arete314159 4y ago

We keep being fed the lie that we can solve climate change by buying different versions of the same stuff, no sacrifice involved. The best car is a train or a bus. Some situations definitely require cars, especially when folks are disabled or when temperatures of 100+ degrees make it difficult to wait for a bus. But this is just a different type of theatre. Public transit is the only real way to decrease CO2 emissions.

JohnClark1337 4y ago
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
And the best bus is an EV bus. Not sure if that counts as just buying different versions of the same stuff. Nothing on its own fixes this. No one is suggesting to only do one thing (apart from maybe the people who are monomaniacal about nuclear or carbon taxes. Both good solutions but they seem mostly to be wielded as weapons to stop all the other stuff happening).

jmrm 4y ago

The EU executed a similar warrant some time ago, not only in banning new ICE cars sales by 2035, but also banning "highly pollutant" cars in the centre of some cities in a short time period and making a lot of changes in cars to pollute less and to have more active security systems (making all cars more expensive). The only movement this warrant has made very effective is making citizens have FUD about what car to buy and what not to buy, making some people settle with their old car for longer time than they expected waiting for better prices and better infrastructures for EVs, and making others to buy a new petrol engine cars to replace their Diesel one to be able to enter in city centres in the next years. I don't know how this is going to end, but there are a lot of sacrifices people can't do, and others that people doesn't want to do, and I don't know any country that is doing a decent strategy in this matter. I would say we would use public transportation with combination of some kind of car sharing in most urban areas, and private owned EVs in more remote and rural areas, where having a private parking spot is common and you can install a charger without problems.