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I think the 5% odds are an underestimation, because Carlsen will change his focus now and won't spend time preparing for the World Championship. He will likely
by epups 4y ago
I think the 5% odds are an underestimation, because Carlsen will change his focus now and won't spend time preparing for the World Championship. He will likely also prioritize risky wins vs safer draws.
- Asraelite 4y ago> He will likely also prioritize risky wins vs safer draws. It seems kind of unfair that this is the strategy needed to increase ELO. If the safest strategy to guarantee a win in a tournament is winning a single game and drawing the rest, then you shouldn't be penalized for that in your ELO, versus playing risky and winning more but also losing some.
- ht85 4y agoYou aren't penalized, playing safely will maximize your chance of winning and having a higher rating. Maximizing your rating on the other hand will require you to play more and more risky games.
- vikingerik 4y agoIt's not the strategy needed to increase your rating on average. It's the strategy needed to target high variance in search of reaching a far-outlying value.
- mda 4y agoConsidering there are quite a few players from young generation who reached 2700+ recently I don't see him reaching his goal and even 5% looks optimistic.
- bagacrap 4y agodoesnt that help? he needs to play (defeat) opponents with high scores to have a chance to boost his own score
- mda 4y agoProblem is new generation probably are less affected psychologically against him and I suspect Carlsen has higher. risk of losing against them compared to old guard.