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I wouldn't jump to this conclusion just yet! Porsche, Ferrari, etc all commanded huge premiums this year for their manual versions. Specifically among younger

I wouldn't jump to this conclusion just yet! Porsche, Ferrari, etc all commanded huge premiums this year for their manual versions. Specifically among younger buyers and first time buyers! You even see this effect downmarket - Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. Manuals are also an order of magnitude less complex and cheaper - so automakers will still have some incentive to include them on small budget cars to keep down their base MSRP (even if they don't offer a ton of them). It helps that in most other countries, manuals are still king. Finally, manual transmissions are overrepresented on the used market. Because manual cars are roughly half as complex as automatics, that translates to many fewer components going bad over time. Less likely to die = cars that stay circulating in the market longer. So if you buy used cars, the options for manuals increases dramatically.

idatum 4y ago
My VW GTI with 6 gear manual is such a joy. And what I fail to convey to my GenZ kids is the simplicity of it. Once I started the engine on a hill by engaging clutch. Kids were puzzled, but not so impressed. Oh well.
- iancmceachern 4y ago
  I love push/roll starting a manual car. One of my fondest memories is push starting my Dad's (lower end) Ferrari in the liquor store parking lot.
  - mrcartmeneses 4y ago
    Lovely example of downplaying one’s class ;P
- bergenty 4y ago
  It’s like showing them an etch a sketch when they’re used to iPads.
- kfajdsl 4y ago
  Hey, I'm a Gen Z kid and I drive a 20 year old shitbox with a manual (a BMW 3 series that I love). At least for enthusiasts, the love is alive and well
  - jihadjihad 4y ago
    I had an E46 330Ci that was just a joy to drive. Those in-line sixes are bulletproof, and the six-speed manual never failed to bring a smile to my face. Great cars, annoying upkeep
- chasd00 4y ago
  I had a VW bug in high school that had some kind of short that would constantly drain the battery. I just got in the habit of parking on a small rise, i could put the car in neutral, roll down, pop the clutch and off i went. The fuel gauage also didn't work but i could pop the clutch then hit the brakes and turn off the engine and listen to the gas slosh to get an idea of how much gas i had. Speedometer didn't work either but didn't seem to be much of a problem. heh reverse also didn't work... not much worked on that car. it sure was fun though. btw my little sister took-it-without-asking/stole it and crashed it when she was 14 :(
dang 4y ago
Ok, we've put a question mark in the title above—a nice device for indicating that the community finds a title, er, questionable.
- loloquwowndueo 4y ago
  But then the answer is “no” by Betteridge’s law :) “ Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.”
  - dang 4y ago
    https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24179969 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24179969
  - hinkley 4y ago
    "Can Any Headline Ending In a Question Mark Be Answered By the Word 'No'?"
    - dang 4y ago
      Very nice!
santoshalper 4y ago
The real issue isn't the demise of manual transmissions. It's the upcoming demise of transmissions entirely as electrification continues it's march towards ubiquity.
- rjzzleep 4y ago
  You need a lot more mining and environmental destruction to get enough batteries for replacing all cars with electric vehicles. Kind of wondering if maybe one day we could have safe micro reactors that can power vehicles.
  - JohnJamesRambo 4y ago
    I saw how that turned out in Fallout.
  - danny_codes 4y ago
    Well given that the current approach is to dump emissions directly into the atmosphere, I'll take the alternative. Obviously EVs are a suboptimal solution. The real solution to transportation energy use is to switch to walking, biking, and transit as the principle mode of transportation,while switching freight mostly back to rail. If you could just walk or bike where you wanted to go (ie, land use is good where you live), than these problems become much smaller.
  - iancmceachern 4y ago
    And as they say, the most environmentally friendly car is the one you already own.
    - _ph_ 4y ago
      While that is often true, it isn't always the case. If you are using a lot of gas (driving a lot, high consumption), replacing it with an electric car can very quickly be more environmental friendly. If you are not using a lot of gas, like only driving your car infrequently, keeping your old car running might be better though.
KennyBlanken 4y ago
Huge premiums != large market. It just means the market is bigger than their production. Manual transmissions are not "an order of magnitude less complex and cheaper." They're far more expensive because the volume is much lower and every configuration has to be crash-tested, so the cost of that crash testing is amortized over a much, much smaller number of vehicles. Manual transmission vehicles get significantly worse mileage and this drags down the fleet emissions which means they need to spend significantly more pushing out low or zero emission vehicles, or can't produce as many SUVs and trucks, where the profit margins are highest. Porsche and Ferrari don't represent the market as a whole, or any significant portion of it. Both are acquired to a large degree as investments - they often appreciate in value if well-cared for, or at least lose significantly less value compared to the average vehicle. People are buying manual transmission vehicles because they're rare and likely to appreciate in value more, not because they're better in any sense. They get worse gas mileage, are slower, and less capable. Dual-clutch gearboxes can shift fast enough that the limitation in them is the rotational inertia of the engine, to the point that there's little or no interruption in delivered torque, thus enabling shifts without upsetting the balance of the car. No manual transmission car can be up/down shifted during track in / cornering / trackout without upsetting the car's balance; dual-clutch gearbox cars can be. And lastly, they can have more gears. Early gearboxes had longevity issues (clutches) but that's largely been sorted out and is no worse than manual transmission cars.
- DaveExeter 4y ago
  Nah. Manual transmissions are better.
- layla5alive 4y ago
  Apparently you've never heard about rev matching? Or heel and toe? Most of what you've said is just wrong.
- bsagdiyev 4y ago
  > No manual transmission car can be up/down shifted during track in / cornering / trackout without upsetting the car's balance; dual-clutch gearbox cars can be. Speak for yourself, but I don't really have much of an issue shifting while going hot through a corner. > And lastly, they can have more gears. Why is this better? Fuel efficiency, sure, but are we going for a Fast and the Furious race scene shifting thing?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
iancmceachern 4y ago
>Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. But they've been putting a delicious 6 speed manual in their FRS/GT86/BRZ for 10 years, and continue to.
- mywittyname 4y ago
  The problem with those cars is that they are slow. -former owner of one The supra is a rocket ship.
  - iancmceachern 4y ago
    I'm the current owner of one, had it since 2013 from New, I absolutely love it. It's a blast to drive when you want to, it gets 30 mpg when you want to, is reliable, and low cost to insure and repair. I wouldn't trade all those plus' for more speed. I'm still refining my driving, learning to drive better. Like they say, it's more fun to drive a slow car fast than a fast car slow.
AmericanChopper 4y ago
They’re remarkably popular in developing economies, even with their emerging middle classes. The manual model of a typical family sedan is usually at least a couple thousand USD cheaper, which is enough to make manual the most popular option in a lot of places.
tmh88j 4y ago
> You even see this effect downmarket - Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. They didn't say never, just that it was unlikely. I think the new Nissan Z scared them into offering one. The timing was too perfect to be coincidental. From the lead engineer a few years ago: > Tada said he knows people keep asking for a manual in the Supra and in time, after customers have driven the Supra with the automatic, if they are still clamoring for a manual, he will consider it. "It is not out of the question to see an update like that."[1] [1] https://www.motortrend.com/news/why-2021-toyota-supra-doesnt-have-manual-transmission/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/why-2021-toyota-supra-doesnt...
- legitster 4y ago
  Haha! Fair enough. I remember at the time this was considered bell tolling for manuals. And then a couple years later Toyota is showing up with their tail between their legs.
theluketaylor 4y ago
Used and vintage Ferrari's have premiums on the manual version if you can find one. They pushed the F1 gearbox hard from its introduction with the 355. Ferrari hasn't even built a car with a manual transmission since 2012, and in the mid 2000s manuals were under 10% of their builds. 599 was the last car they made with a stick, and even that was only 30 of 600 cars. Porsche was ready to kill their manual with the 991.1 911 GT3 being PDK only, but there was enough outcry they brought it back for 991.2 and 992. The recently unveiled 992 GT3 RS is PDK only since it's a true track car and PDK puts in faster lap times. Even the revived GT 6-speed only accounts for a fraction of their builds and the 7-speed is hardly ordered on the regular 911 at all.
richiezc 4y ago
While it is true that a MT modern Porsche tends to hold more value its not really true anymore that its less complex nor cheaper. (1) PDK is a free option on the S models, you can't even get MT on the base Carrera anymore (2) the 7MT in the 991/992 is derived from the PDK unit: https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a15120538/a-tale-of-two-porsche-seven-speeds-manual-and-pdk-tech-dept/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a15120538/a-tale-of-tw... That being said I own a 991.1 C2S w/ 7MT and I'm never upgrading bc I don't want a turbo and I'm not into the GT3 anymore as I stopped going to the track

idatum 4y ago

My VW GTI with 6 gear manual is such a joy. And what I fail to convey to my GenZ kids is the simplicity of it. Once I started the engine on a hill by engaging clutch. Kids were puzzled, but not so impressed. Oh well.

iancmceachern 4y ago
I love push/roll starting a manual car. One of my fondest memories is push starting my Dad's (lower end) Ferrari in the liquor store parking lot.
- mrcartmeneses 4y ago
  Lovely example of downplaying one’s class ;P
bergenty 4y ago
It’s like showing them an etch a sketch when they’re used to iPads.
kfajdsl 4y ago
Hey, I'm a Gen Z kid and I drive a 20 year old shitbox with a manual (a BMW 3 series that I love). At least for enthusiasts, the love is alive and well
- jihadjihad 4y ago
  I had an E46 330Ci that was just a joy to drive. Those in-line sixes are bulletproof, and the six-speed manual never failed to bring a smile to my face. Great cars, annoying upkeep
chasd00 4y ago
I had a VW bug in high school that had some kind of short that would constantly drain the battery. I just got in the habit of parking on a small rise, i could put the car in neutral, roll down, pop the clutch and off i went. The fuel gauage also didn't work but i could pop the clutch then hit the brakes and turn off the engine and listen to the gas slosh to get an idea of how much gas i had. Speedometer didn't work either but didn't seem to be much of a problem. heh reverse also didn't work... not much worked on that car. it sure was fun though. btw my little sister took-it-without-asking/stole it and crashed it when she was 14 :(

dang 4y ago

Ok, we've put a question mark in the title above—a nice device for indicating that the community finds a title, er, questionable.

loloquwowndueo 4y ago
But then the answer is “no” by Betteridge’s law :) “ Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no.”
- dang 4y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24179969 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24179969
- hinkley 4y ago
  "Can Any Headline Ending In a Question Mark Be Answered By the Word 'No'?"
  - dang 4y ago
    Very nice!

santoshalper 4y ago

The real issue isn't the demise of manual transmissions. It's the upcoming demise of transmissions entirely as electrification continues it's march towards ubiquity.

rjzzleep 4y ago
You need a lot more mining and environmental destruction to get enough batteries for replacing all cars with electric vehicles. Kind of wondering if maybe one day we could have safe micro reactors that can power vehicles.
- JohnJamesRambo 4y ago
  I saw how that turned out in Fallout.
- danny_codes 4y ago
  Well given that the current approach is to dump emissions directly into the atmosphere, I'll take the alternative. Obviously EVs are a suboptimal solution. The real solution to transportation energy use is to switch to walking, biking, and transit as the principle mode of transportation,while switching freight mostly back to rail. If you could just walk or bike where you wanted to go (ie, land use is good where you live), than these problems become much smaller.
- iancmceachern 4y ago
  And as they say, the most environmentally friendly car is the one you already own.
  - _ph_ 4y ago
    While that is often true, it isn't always the case. If you are using a lot of gas (driving a lot, high consumption), replacing it with an electric car can very quickly be more environmental friendly. If you are not using a lot of gas, like only driving your car infrequently, keeping your old car running might be better though.

KennyBlanken 4y ago

Huge premiums != large market. It just means the market is bigger than their production. Manual transmissions are not "an order of magnitude less complex and cheaper." They're far more expensive because the volume is much lower and every configuration has to be crash-tested, so the cost of that crash testing is amortized over a much, much smaller number of vehicles. Manual transmission vehicles get significantly worse mileage and this drags down the fleet emissions which means they need to spend significantly more pushing out low or zero emission vehicles, or can't produce as many SUVs and trucks, where the profit margins are highest. Porsche and Ferrari don't represent the market as a whole, or any significant portion of it. Both are acquired to a large degree as investments - they often appreciate in value if well-cared for, or at least lose significantly less value compared to the average vehicle. People are buying manual transmission vehicles because they're rare and likely to appreciate in value more, not because they're better in any sense. They get worse gas mileage, are slower, and less capable. Dual-clutch gearboxes can shift fast enough that the limitation in them is the rotational inertia of the engine, to the point that there's little or no interruption in delivered torque, thus enabling shifts without upsetting the balance of the car. No manual transmission car can be up/down shifted during track in / cornering / trackout without upsetting the car's balance; dual-clutch gearbox cars can be. And lastly, they can have more gears. Early gearboxes had longevity issues (clutches) but that's largely been sorted out and is no worse than manual transmission cars.

DaveExeter 4y ago
Nah. Manual transmissions are better.
layla5alive 4y ago
Apparently you've never heard about rev matching? Or heel and toe? Most of what you've said is just wrong.
bsagdiyev 4y ago
> No manual transmission car can be up/down shifted during track in / cornering / trackout without upsetting the car's balance; dual-clutch gearbox cars can be. Speak for yourself, but I don't really have much of an issue shifting while going hot through a corner. > And lastly, they can have more gears. Why is this better? Fuel efficiency, sure, but are we going for a Fast and the Furious race scene shifting thing?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

iancmceachern 4y ago

>Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. But they've been putting a delicious 6 speed manual in their FRS/GT86/BRZ for 10 years, and continue to.

mywittyname 4y ago
The problem with those cars is that they are slow. -former owner of one The supra is a rocket ship.
- iancmceachern 4y ago
  I'm the current owner of one, had it since 2013 from New, I absolutely love it. It's a blast to drive when you want to, it gets 30 mpg when you want to, is reliable, and low cost to insure and repair. I wouldn't trade all those plus' for more speed. I'm still refining my driving, learning to drive better. Like they say, it's more fun to drive a slow car fast than a fast car slow.

AmericanChopper 4y ago

They’re remarkably popular in developing economies, even with their emerging middle classes. The manual model of a typical family sedan is usually at least a couple thousand USD cheaper, which is enough to make manual the most popular option in a lot of places.

tmh88j 4y ago

> You even see this effect downmarket - Toyota promised to never make a manual version of their Supra, then just this last year they put together a cobbled transmission to save their car. They didn't say never, just that it was unlikely. I think the new Nissan Z scared them into offering one. The timing was too perfect to be coincidental. From the lead engineer a few years ago: > Tada said he knows people keep asking for a manual in the Supra and in time, after customers have driven the Supra with the automatic, if they are still clamoring for a manual, he will consider it. "It is not out of the question to see an update like that."[1] [1] https://www.motortrend.com/news/why-2021-toyota-supra-doesnt-have-manual-transmission/ https://www.motortrend.com/news/why-2021-toyota-supra-doesnt...

legitster 4y ago
Haha! Fair enough. I remember at the time this was considered bell tolling for manuals. And then a couple years later Toyota is showing up with their tail between their legs.

theluketaylor 4y ago

Used and vintage Ferrari's have premiums on the manual version if you can find one. They pushed the F1 gearbox hard from its introduction with the 355. Ferrari hasn't even built a car with a manual transmission since 2012, and in the mid 2000s manuals were under 10% of their builds. 599 was the last car they made with a stick, and even that was only 30 of 600 cars. Porsche was ready to kill their manual with the 991.1 911 GT3 being PDK only, but there was enough outcry they brought it back for 991.2 and 992. The recently unveiled 992 GT3 RS is PDK only since it's a true track car and PDK puts in faster lap times. Even the revived GT 6-speed only accounts for a fraction of their builds and the 7-speed is hardly ordered on the regular 911 at all.

richiezc 4y ago

While it is true that a MT modern Porsche tends to hold more value its not really true anymore that its less complex nor cheaper. (1) PDK is a free option on the S models, you can't even get MT on the base Carrera anymore (2) the 7MT in the 991/992 is derived from the PDK unit: https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a15120538/a-tale-of-two-porsche-seven-speeds-manual-and-pdk-tech-dept/ https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a15120538/a-tale-of-tw... That being said I own a 991.1 C2S w/ 7MT and I'm never upgrading bc I don't want a turbo and I'm not into the GT3 anymore as I stopped going to the track