5 ms·

>> 95% carbon-free generation I am still not clearly getting the picture here - what exactly this means. US has about 30% electricity generated by Coal and I

>> 95% carbon-free generation I am still not clearly getting the picture here - what exactly this means. US has about 30% electricity generated by Coal and I do not see that go away in next 20 years let alone 8. What am I missing here? As of today, US energy portfolio is around 83% fossil. The best case scenario for 2040 is something like 50%, that includes we get Nuclear fusion, massive battery storage, material science breakthroughs that will put a dent on steel and cement consumption.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago
All the big developed nations have committed to phase out coal by 2030, the USA skipped it because of politics, but if you read any of the coverage of that they usually say that it would happen with or without a government commitment e.g. Why the U.S. Didn’t Join 40 Other Countries in Pledge to End Coal subtitle: Economics is already playing a large role in curtailing American coal power https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-u-s-didnt-join-40-other-countries-in-pledge-to-end-coal/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-u-s-didnt...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- makomk 4y ago
  The trouble is, the economics only worked out that way because natural gas was cheap - it's not anymore, and countries have been rolling back their coal shutdowns as a result. There's a good chance it never will be again. The same people who were campaigning for that managed to convince pretty much all developed nations other than the US to end new natural gas investment and extraction, and without the supply there prices won't go down and it won't be feasible to use as a coal replacement. This will probably also cut into the switch to renewables because all of the alternatives to natural gas, like coal, play much less well with them.
  - ZeroGravitas 4y ago
    High gas prices help renewables, because they are even cheaper by comparison. As shown by this model, which as well as removing the 75% of coal fired electricity, reduces the gas fired electricity from 15% to less than 5% and saves lots of money in the process. The American move from coal to gas shows that even in places where it's still politically favorable to pretend climate change isn't happening, or that coal is clean, simple economics is a big driver of change.
s1artibartfast 4y ago
Us coal production is at 22% down from 39% in 2014. That's a 17% reduction in 9 years with 22% to go. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_power_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_power_in_the_United_Sta...
philipkglass 4y ago
I don't expect the US to hit that ambitious 2030 target. But you may not realize how fast the American generation mix has been changing recently. In 2015 coal supplied 33% of American electricity generation and renewables supplied 13%: https://web.archive.org/web/20170328200331/https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427 https://web.archive.org/web/20170328200331/https://www.eia.g... Coal supplied 21.8% of US electricity generation in 2021 and renewables supplied 20.1%: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427 Coal is the fastest-shrinking electrical power source in the US: "Coal will account for 85% of U.S. electric generating capacity retirements in 2022" https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838 Solar and wind are the fastest-growing sources: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ The largest increases in U.S. electricity generation in our forecast come from renewable energy sources, mostly solar and wind. We expect renewable sources will provide 22% of U.S. generation in 2022 and 24% in 2023, up from 20% in 2021.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

All the big developed nations have committed to phase out coal by 2030, the USA skipped it because of politics, but if you read any of the coverage of that they usually say that it would happen with or without a government commitment e.g. Why the U.S. Didn’t Join 40 Other Countries in Pledge to End Coal subtitle: Economics is already playing a large role in curtailing American coal power https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-u-s-didnt-join-40-other-countries-in-pledge-to-end-coal/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-u-s-didnt...

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
makomk 4y ago
The trouble is, the economics only worked out that way because natural gas was cheap - it's not anymore, and countries have been rolling back their coal shutdowns as a result. There's a good chance it never will be again. The same people who were campaigning for that managed to convince pretty much all developed nations other than the US to end new natural gas investment and extraction, and without the supply there prices won't go down and it won't be feasible to use as a coal replacement. This will probably also cut into the switch to renewables because all of the alternatives to natural gas, like coal, play much less well with them.
- ZeroGravitas 4y ago
  High gas prices help renewables, because they are even cheaper by comparison. As shown by this model, which as well as removing the 75% of coal fired electricity, reduces the gas fired electricity from 15% to less than 5% and saves lots of money in the process. The American move from coal to gas shows that even in places where it's still politically favorable to pretend climate change isn't happening, or that coal is clean, simple economics is a big driver of change.

s1artibartfast 4y ago

Us coal production is at 22% down from 39% in 2014. That's a 17% reduction in 9 years with 22% to go. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_power_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_power_in_the_United_Sta...

philipkglass 4y ago

I don't expect the US to hit that ambitious 2030 target. But you may not realize how fast the American generation mix has been changing recently. In 2015 coal supplied 33% of American electricity generation and renewables supplied 13%: https://web.archive.org/web/20170328200331/https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427 https://web.archive.org/web/20170328200331/https://www.eia.g... Coal supplied 21.8% of US electricity generation in 2021 and renewables supplied 20.1%: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427 Coal is the fastest-shrinking electrical power source in the US: "Coal will account for 85% of U.S. electric generating capacity retirements in 2022" https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50838 Solar and wind are the fastest-growing sources: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ The largest increases in U.S. electricity generation in our forecast come from renewable energy sources, mostly solar and wind. We expect renewable sources will provide 22% of U.S. generation in 2022 and 24% in 2023, up from 20% in 2021.