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Whatever governments decide, you will not be able to buy a gasoline car after 2030 because the car manufacturers do not want to make them. A gasoline car will

Whatever governments decide, you will not be able to buy a gasoline car after 2030 because the car manufacturers do not want to make them. A gasoline car will not be able to compete with an electric car in terms of performance and cost. The only reason electric cars are more expensive than gasoline cars is because of the lower production volumes at the moment + the car manufacturers can charge a premium for an electric car at the moment. Charging stations will be available everywhere. It's fairly easy and cheap to install and consumers will require it from the restaurants, stores, municipalities etc. It's a selling point and also a source of additional income. (I'm talking consumer cars here, not some heavy duty vehicles or other special vehicles which might still benefit from a combustion engine).

ltbarcly3 4y ago
> The only reason electric cars are more expensive than gasoline cars is because of the lower production volumes at the moment This is not true, it is because the battery costs 10's of thousands of dollars. It costs Tesla around $200/kwh to build a battery, and it's batteries go between 50kwh ($10,000) and 100kwh ($20,000). This is the estimated cost to manufacture just the battery. Meanwhile you can buy a Chevy Spark for $15,000 retail. The truth is that the only reason there are any substantial sales of electric cars is huge government subsidies. In the long run this will change, battery cost will go down, but also the subsidies will go away. It is likely that if there is no fundamental cost floor to the batteries that prevents it, electric cars will end up cheaper to manufacture in the long run because they are simpler and have less parts. They are certainly going to be cheaper to maintain and more reliable. However, that is in the long run, the things you are saying are not true yet and there's no reliable way to know when they are likely to become true.
- flakeoil 4y ago
  As the charging time for EV batteries has gone down dramatically ( currently fast charging to 80% capacity in 20-30 minutes), there is no need to have such big batteries anymore. They could be reduced in half for many use cases. In addition, the motors are often way too powerful and can be made smaller. And then if there would be further issues with cost, the size of the car could easily be reduced. It's quite ridiculous to make big SUV's which don't fit more people and load than a more traditional car. It will regulate itself, based on cost of raw materials. And hopefully governments will at least provide incentives to steer it towards smaller cars (for example more tax on big and heavy vehicles). The subsidies do not change the cost of the car for the buyer. With subsidies, it just allows the car manufacturers to charge a higher price. If the subsidies would be taken away, the car manufacturers would decrease their prices.
  - ltbarcly3 4y ago
    > As the charging time for EV batteries has gone down dramatically ( currently fast charging to 80% capacity in 20-30 minutes), there is no need to have such big batteries anymore. They could be reduced in half for many use cases. Good luck selling a car with a 50 mile range. You won't sell many. > In addition, the motors are often way too powerful and can be made smaller. Ok this is the comment that made me realize you literally have no idea what you are talking about. The motors are used to capture energy while breaking, if you can't capture energy because you are maxing out the smaller motors you lose that energy. That's why the motors are the size they are, the high performance is just a benefit of that requirement. > And then if there would be further issues with cost, the size of the car could easily be reduced. This is irrelevant. > The subsidies do not change the cost of the car for the buyer. With subsidies, it just allows the car manufacturers to charge a higher price. Again this is false, that is not how pricing of goods works. You have to price your widget to sell on the market, not just to hit some hypothetical price you think it is worth. The subsidies don't let them raise prices because they are competing with other cars, not just with their own hypothetical price.
    - flakeoil 4y ago
      > Good luck selling a car with a 50 mile range. You won't sell many. Where did you get that 50 mile range from? > Again this is false, that is not how pricing of goods works. You have to price your widget to sell on the market, not just to hit some hypothetical price you think it is worth. The subsidies don't let them raise prices because they are competing with other cars, not just with their own hypothetical price. When the market is balanced you might be right, but when there if higher demand than supply, which is the case at the moment, then there is no need for the suppliers to lower the prices. They can keep the subsidies in their pocket without passing it on as they cannot sell/produce enough cars anyway.

ltbarcly3 4y ago

> The only reason electric cars are more expensive than gasoline cars is because of the lower production volumes at the moment This is not true, it is because the battery costs 10's of thousands of dollars. It costs Tesla around $200/kwh to build a battery, and it's batteries go between 50kwh ($10,000) and 100kwh ($20,000). This is the estimated cost to manufacture just the battery. Meanwhile you can buy a Chevy Spark for $15,000 retail. The truth is that the only reason there are any substantial sales of electric cars is huge government subsidies. In the long run this will change, battery cost will go down, but also the subsidies will go away. It is likely that if there is no fundamental cost floor to the batteries that prevents it, electric cars will end up cheaper to manufacture in the long run because they are simpler and have less parts. They are certainly going to be cheaper to maintain and more reliable. However, that is in the long run, the things you are saying are not true yet and there's no reliable way to know when they are likely to become true.

flakeoil 4y ago
As the charging time for EV batteries has gone down dramatically ( currently fast charging to 80% capacity in 20-30 minutes), there is no need to have such big batteries anymore. They could be reduced in half for many use cases. In addition, the motors are often way too powerful and can be made smaller. And then if there would be further issues with cost, the size of the car could easily be reduced. It's quite ridiculous to make big SUV's which don't fit more people and load than a more traditional car. It will regulate itself, based on cost of raw materials. And hopefully governments will at least provide incentives to steer it towards smaller cars (for example more tax on big and heavy vehicles). The subsidies do not change the cost of the car for the buyer. With subsidies, it just allows the car manufacturers to charge a higher price. If the subsidies would be taken away, the car manufacturers would decrease their prices.
- ltbarcly3 4y ago
  > As the charging time for EV batteries has gone down dramatically ( currently fast charging to 80% capacity in 20-30 minutes), there is no need to have such big batteries anymore. They could be reduced in half for many use cases. Good luck selling a car with a 50 mile range. You won't sell many. > In addition, the motors are often way too powerful and can be made smaller. Ok this is the comment that made me realize you literally have no idea what you are talking about. The motors are used to capture energy while breaking, if you can't capture energy because you are maxing out the smaller motors you lose that energy. That's why the motors are the size they are, the high performance is just a benefit of that requirement. > And then if there would be further issues with cost, the size of the car could easily be reduced. This is irrelevant. > The subsidies do not change the cost of the car for the buyer. With subsidies, it just allows the car manufacturers to charge a higher price. Again this is false, that is not how pricing of goods works. You have to price your widget to sell on the market, not just to hit some hypothetical price you think it is worth. The subsidies don't let them raise prices because they are competing with other cars, not just with their own hypothetical price.
  - flakeoil 4y ago
    > Good luck selling a car with a 50 mile range. You won't sell many. Where did you get that 50 mile range from? > Again this is false, that is not how pricing of goods works. You have to price your widget to sell on the market, not just to hit some hypothetical price you think it is worth. The subsidies don't let them raise prices because they are competing with other cars, not just with their own hypothetical price. When the market is balanced you might be right, but when there if higher demand than supply, which is the case at the moment, then there is no need for the suppliers to lower the prices. They can keep the subsidies in their pocket without passing it on as they cannot sell/produce enough cars anyway.