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How will this affect the revenue and stock prices of major hardware manufacturers? Particularly GPU manufacturers? If the price of GPU's drop due to a large sec

How will this affect the revenue and stock prices of major hardware manufacturers? Particularly GPU manufacturers? If the price of GPU's drop due to a large second hand market opening up, would GPU manufacturers be hurt in any way?

immibis 4y ago
Nvidia is down almost 50%... from its high around Jan/Dec. I suspect people saw this coming from a mile away. If you think the effect is likely to be stronger or weaker than the market predicts, bet on it now.
- drexlspivey 4y ago
  People stopped buying GPUs a while back, it makes no sense to buy a GPU for mining 6 months before the merge
  - sp332 4y ago
    It's true they stopped buying new ones, but now they won't have any reason to keep old ones either. I'm expecting (hoping for) a glut of previous-generation GPUs as miners close up shop.
    - johntb86 4y ago
      I've heard people warn that used gpus formerly used for mining might be a bad deal, since they've been run flat out 24/7. I don't know how true that is.
      - ls612 4y ago
        The cores should be fine since they have usually been run undervolted at lower temperatures, but the memory has been more stressed than a gaming card’s memory.
      - AlexandrB 4y ago
        A friend sold me a 1070 Ti he used 24/7 for a year mining... something (zcash?). I ended up using that thing in my gaming PC for 3 more years before I upgraded recently. I'm sure the lifespan of used GPUs is reduced, but it's hard to say by how much. There's probably a lot of variability due to chip yield and operating conditions (especially temperature and ESD safety). But if I could get one at half off, I'd probably take that chance.
      - OGWhales 4y ago
        Buying used in general is risky, but I’d wager buying from a miner is not much worse than buying used from a non-miner. I believe miners are more likely to undervolt their cards and with running them at a constant rate, they won’t undergo the same stress from heating up and cooling down each time it gets used.
        sp332 4y ago
        That might be true for the chips, but the fans have probably been run 24/7 for much longer than the comsumer-level cards are rated for. So keep an eye out for dying fans.
        immibis 4y ago
        Fans are not the interesting part of a graphics card. Fans are commodities, even if you may have to rig up something with cardboard and duct tape.
  - zionic 4y ago
    But HN comments assured me it was never going to happen/will stay "6 months away". I sure hope those people bought mining GPUs/put their money where their mouth is.
jahewson 4y ago
Unlikely. There are plenty of other coins out there to mine and one of the advantages of GPU vs ASIC is that you can just switch instantly.
- drexlspivey 4y ago
  Nope, mining needs to be profitable too. There is not enough margin in all altcoins combined to support the influx of GPUs coming from ethereum.
- anonporridge 4y ago
  Na. Bitcoin and Ethereum make up 60% of the total cryptocurrency "market cap" and a good chunk of the remainder are USD stablecoins that run on top of a base chain with no mining itself. The next most valuable proof of work coin at <1% of the total market value is dogecoin, and that's already long been using ASIC miners like bitcoin. Unless Ethereum miners forcibly maintain a PoW fork or try to pump up Ethereum Classic back into the spotlight, GPU mining might finally be effectively dead. As many people have said for years, there's only room on this planet for one proof of work chain, and it's bitcoin. All other use cases with be proof of stake, or sidechains and layer twos of some base chain.
  - jahewson 4y ago
    Eek, thanks for the stats, I didn’t realise it was that lopsided. Maybe I’ll be able to afford a GPU again!
    - anonporridge 4y ago
      Yeah. Ethereum has been the bane of home PC gaming for years now. It would have been nice if they had at least moved to purpose made ASICs, like bitcoin had the decency to do.
joshmarlow 4y ago
Even if the crypto market for GPUs dries up, the ML market only seems to be growing. GPU manufacturers should be just fine.

immibis 4y ago

Nvidia is down almost 50%... from its high around Jan/Dec. I suspect people saw this coming from a mile away. If you think the effect is likely to be stronger or weaker than the market predicts, bet on it now.

drexlspivey 4y ago
People stopped buying GPUs a while back, it makes no sense to buy a GPU for mining 6 months before the merge
- sp332 4y ago
  It's true they stopped buying new ones, but now they won't have any reason to keep old ones either. I'm expecting (hoping for) a glut of previous-generation GPUs as miners close up shop.
  - johntb86 4y ago
    I've heard people warn that used gpus formerly used for mining might be a bad deal, since they've been run flat out 24/7. I don't know how true that is.
    - ls612 4y ago
      The cores should be fine since they have usually been run undervolted at lower temperatures, but the memory has been more stressed than a gaming card’s memory.
    - AlexandrB 4y ago
      A friend sold me a 1070 Ti he used 24/7 for a year mining... something (zcash?). I ended up using that thing in my gaming PC for 3 more years before I upgraded recently. I'm sure the lifespan of used GPUs is reduced, but it's hard to say by how much. There's probably a lot of variability due to chip yield and operating conditions (especially temperature and ESD safety). But if I could get one at half off, I'd probably take that chance.
    - OGWhales 4y ago
      Buying used in general is risky, but I’d wager buying from a miner is not much worse than buying used from a non-miner. I believe miners are more likely to undervolt their cards and with running them at a constant rate, they won’t undergo the same stress from heating up and cooling down each time it gets used.
      - sp332 4y ago
        That might be true for the chips, but the fans have probably been run 24/7 for much longer than the comsumer-level cards are rated for. So keep an eye out for dying fans.
        immibis 4y ago
        Fans are not the interesting part of a graphics card. Fans are commodities, even if you may have to rig up something with cardboard and duct tape.
- zionic 4y ago
  But HN comments assured me it was never going to happen/will stay "6 months away". I sure hope those people bought mining GPUs/put their money where their mouth is.

jahewson 4y ago

Unlikely. There are plenty of other coins out there to mine and one of the advantages of GPU vs ASIC is that you can just switch instantly.

drexlspivey 4y ago
Nope, mining needs to be profitable too. There is not enough margin in all altcoins combined to support the influx of GPUs coming from ethereum.
anonporridge 4y ago
Na. Bitcoin and Ethereum make up 60% of the total cryptocurrency "market cap" and a good chunk of the remainder are USD stablecoins that run on top of a base chain with no mining itself. The next most valuable proof of work coin at <1% of the total market value is dogecoin, and that's already long been using ASIC miners like bitcoin. Unless Ethereum miners forcibly maintain a PoW fork or try to pump up Ethereum Classic back into the spotlight, GPU mining might finally be effectively dead. As many people have said for years, there's only room on this planet for one proof of work chain, and it's bitcoin. All other use cases with be proof of stake, or sidechains and layer twos of some base chain.
- jahewson 4y ago
  Eek, thanks for the stats, I didn’t realise it was that lopsided. Maybe I’ll be able to afford a GPU again!
  - anonporridge 4y ago
    Yeah. Ethereum has been the bane of home PC gaming for years now. It would have been nice if they had at least moved to purpose made ASICs, like bitcoin had the decency to do.

joshmarlow 4y ago

Even if the crypto market for GPUs dries up, the ML market only seems to be growing. GPU manufacturers should be just fine.