3 ms·
Not stuck, but hardly a runaway success. That graph shows adoption at 40% and increasing, roughly linearly, at maybe 5% a year. At this rate, it's going to be 2
by gnfargbl 4y ago
Not stuck, but hardly a runaway success. That graph shows adoption at 40% and increasing, roughly linearly, at maybe 5% a year. At this rate, it's going to be 2040-2050 before we are in any realistic position for an IPv4 switchoff.
So: IPv4 space already pushing $50/address, ~$1bn of unused-but-potentially-routable IPv4 space (240/4) just sitting there, and 25 years to go before it becomes worthless. Any guesses what happens next?
- NavinF 4y agoRelevant: “When will >50% of users access Google over IPv6?” Community Prediction Dec 21, 2024 at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9558/when-50-of-users-access-google-over-ipv6/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9558/when-50-of-users-ac... “When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?” Community Prediction Sep 23, 2042 at https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ip...