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I cannot argue here. What would go wrong, if Russian Oil and Gas are foundational to your Energy Security. Let me call Angela Merkel.

weatherlite 4y ago
It's very unlikely Russia will do anything to mess up what they have going with China and India...because they don't have much other alternatives. I am not talking morals here ... I am calling it as it is. This has nothing to do with morals.
- bluGill 4y ago
  If Russia did reasonable things they wouldn't have attacked Ukraine. Since we are talking about a Russia willing to do stupid things there is no reason to believe they won't mess with India or China.
  - weatherlite 4y ago
    > If Russia did reasonable things they wouldn't have attacked Ukraine If the U.S did reasonable things they wouldn't have attacked Iraq.
    - ss2003 4y ago
      Attacking Iraq was a very, very bad idea. Attacking Ukraine is suicidal.
      - random314 4y ago
        Suicidal for whom?
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        Russia. I don't see how anyone can see the massive losses Russia has had as well as the lasting impacts of sanctions as anything but suicidal. Russia cannot even build a modern car with ABS and airbags, let alone a plane or a tank while sanctions are in place.
        random314 4y ago
        Russia is a virtual entity. The real person involved is Putin, and it is hard to see how this affects Putin at all. With Bush's invasion of Iraq, he ran the risk of losing the 2004 reelection. Putin doesn't even face that risk.
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        if Russia loses the war and the army collapses there could be some very consequences from Putin, and that it seperate from the consequence of the slow moving collapse of the Russian economy that has already started.
        random314 4y ago
        The Russian rouble is outperforming the usd this year. That does not look like a collapsing economy. In fact, it has gained 40% on the euro. If Russia loses, they will withdraw to their borders. In the worst case they lose access to the Caspian sea. If not, they will acquire Ukraine. The real loser is Ukraine, no matter what happens from here on.
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        > The Russian rouble is outperforming the usd this year. That does not look like a collapsing economy. In fact, it has gained 40% on the euro. It only looks like this because it’s being propped up by massive cash spending of Russian foreign reserves and because it cannot be traded internationally in any significant volume. If the economy is doing so well why did Gazprom and Sberbank cancel it’s dividend with Russia?. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/30/state-firms-gazprom-sberbank-opt-out-of-dividend-payout-a78159 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/30/state-firms-gazpro... > If Russia loses, they will withdraw to their borders. In the worst case they lose access to the Caspian sea. If not, they will acquire Ukraine. If Russia losses they lose access to their Black Sea headquarters and also Crimea. They also face quite badly, but I guess that’s really already come to pass no one thinks Russia is the number two army in the world anymore. Even if Russia did capture Ukraine they would face a long insurgency that would make Afghanistan look like a cake walk. I initially thought Russia would capture a lot of land early on but I didn’t they would be able to hold it, and we already seeing this with how many collaborators and Russian soldiers keep dying in occupied cities from partisans. > The real loser is Ukraine, no matter what happens from here on. This is hundred percent true but they lose much harder if they just let the genocidal Russians take over Ukraine and keep committing genocide against them.
dfadsadsf 4y ago
To be fair, Europe was first to start trade war and ramp it up to 100%. Russia is just responding in kind. Europe had a choice in whether to back Ukraine or not (including pushing it to reject Russian demands before the war) and risks were known in advance. Considering India and Russia has no common border and global interests are mostly aligned, repeat of situation is extremely unlikely. With any critical import you take a risk but this one is pretty small as far as geopolitical risks go.

weatherlite 4y ago

It's very unlikely Russia will do anything to mess up what they have going with China and India...because they don't have much other alternatives. I am not talking morals here ... I am calling it as it is. This has nothing to do with morals.

bluGill 4y ago
If Russia did reasonable things they wouldn't have attacked Ukraine. Since we are talking about a Russia willing to do stupid things there is no reason to believe they won't mess with India or China.
- weatherlite 4y ago
  > If Russia did reasonable things they wouldn't have attacked Ukraine If the U.S did reasonable things they wouldn't have attacked Iraq.
  - ss2003 4y ago
    Attacking Iraq was a very, very bad idea. Attacking Ukraine is suicidal.
    - random314 4y ago
      Suicidal for whom?
      - _kbh_ 4y ago
        Russia. I don't see how anyone can see the massive losses Russia has had as well as the lasting impacts of sanctions as anything but suicidal. Russia cannot even build a modern car with ABS and airbags, let alone a plane or a tank while sanctions are in place.
        random314 4y ago
        Russia is a virtual entity. The real person involved is Putin, and it is hard to see how this affects Putin at all. With Bush's invasion of Iraq, he ran the risk of losing the 2004 reelection. Putin doesn't even face that risk.
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        if Russia loses the war and the army collapses there could be some very consequences from Putin, and that it seperate from the consequence of the slow moving collapse of the Russian economy that has already started.
        random314 4y ago
        The Russian rouble is outperforming the usd this year. That does not look like a collapsing economy. In fact, it has gained 40% on the euro. If Russia loses, they will withdraw to their borders. In the worst case they lose access to the Caspian sea. If not, they will acquire Ukraine. The real loser is Ukraine, no matter what happens from here on.
        _kbh_ 4y ago
        > The Russian rouble is outperforming the usd this year. That does not look like a collapsing economy. In fact, it has gained 40% on the euro. It only looks like this because it’s being propped up by massive cash spending of Russian foreign reserves and because it cannot be traded internationally in any significant volume. If the economy is doing so well why did Gazprom and Sberbank cancel it’s dividend with Russia?. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/30/state-firms-gazprom-sberbank-opt-out-of-dividend-payout-a78159 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/30/state-firms-gazpro... > If Russia loses, they will withdraw to their borders. In the worst case they lose access to the Caspian sea. If not, they will acquire Ukraine. If Russia losses they lose access to their Black Sea headquarters and also Crimea. They also face quite badly, but I guess that’s really already come to pass no one thinks Russia is the number two army in the world anymore. Even if Russia did capture Ukraine they would face a long insurgency that would make Afghanistan look like a cake walk. I initially thought Russia would capture a lot of land early on but I didn’t they would be able to hold it, and we already seeing this with how many collaborators and Russian soldiers keep dying in occupied cities from partisans. > The real loser is Ukraine, no matter what happens from here on. This is hundred percent true but they lose much harder if they just let the genocidal Russians take over Ukraine and keep committing genocide against them.

dfadsadsf 4y ago

To be fair, Europe was first to start trade war and ramp it up to 100%. Russia is just responding in kind. Europe had a choice in whether to back Ukraine or not (including pushing it to reject Russian demands before the war) and risks were known in advance. Considering India and Russia has no common border and global interests are mostly aligned, repeat of situation is extremely unlikely. With any critical import you take a risk but this one is pretty small as far as geopolitical risks go.