3 ms·

I think the core of the problem is that we're losing the middle class of housing. Obviously the nicest areas of the country, with the best weather, most opport

I think the core of the problem is that we're losing the middle class of housing. Obviously the nicest areas of the country, with the best weather, most opportunities, low crime, elite schools, etc. are going to be expensive. But it's getting to the point where it's prohibitively expensive for a middle class family just to live in a place without high crime/drug addiction/homelessness, reasonably good schools, reasonable healthcare options, and some measure of community/walkability (forget about weather and jobs). You can live cheaply if you're willing to sacrifice in some of those areas, but they are major sacrifices that will have a negative influence on quality-of-life and the future prospects of kids who grow up there. It wasn't always like this. I had a neighbor when I lived in North Berkeley (a beautiful neighborhood that checks every box you could want) who told me he bought his house in the late 90s for 150k. Now it's probably worth 2 million or more. I realized that everyone who bought on that block around that time had almost a six figure annual income for most of their adult lives solely from the appreciation of their homes. I'm sure there are good deals out there that can still be found, but we really do have a problem if a table stakes decent family life is only affordable by the top 10% (or less).

anon291 4y ago
Part of the problem is the middle of housing was often in towns anchored by one or two factories or other local businesses. With businesses being hyper-centralized today due to the internet and technology decoupling business from land, employees are now located much more centrally (we'll see how remote work changes this). For example, Google has hundreds of thousands of employees in the Bay Area alone. That's crazy. In the past, this would have formed several towns all across the country (because Google would need such a footprint to be able to deliver services nationally). Now that anyone can start a large company without barely any land investment, it's no wonder people are increasingly concentrating in small portions of the country, while large portions are incredibly cheap, and in some places, depreciating.
nineplay 4y ago
Housing values in and around Silicon Valley have gone up extraordinarily since I was young for reasons that were not easily predictable. It's not a good model for housing costs in the rest of the US. I grew up in uninteresting towns in Monterey County and San Bernardino County and both could check off points of 'acceptable places to live' which are affordable to the middle classes. No one talks about them because no one cares.
- linguae 4y ago
  And even now these places are starting to become unaffordable for the middle class. I had an unsuccessful search last autumn for homes in Watsonville and northern Monterey County under $550,000 due to bidding wars that often resulted in homes selling for considerably more than asking. Prices are now starting to drop and inventory is rising, but interest rates are considerably higher than last fall when I started my search. There’s been an explosion in home prices in the California Central Valley since the pandemic started. In 2019 it was possible to buy a brand new house in Los Banos and Merced for $280,000 and $250,000, respectively. Today you need around $450,000 and $400,000, respectively, to purchase similar new homes. And it’s not just the cost of materials that led to the massive price hikes; the cost of pre-existing homes also boomed in these towns. I grew up in Sacramento and now rent an apartment in Santa Cruz County. Sacramento, once known for affordable housing with easy access to Bay Area and Tahoe amenities, is no longer affordable for many people. There are massive homeless encampments that I see whenever I visit the area these days. The housing situation is getting out of hand, and while this may not be indicative of a national crisis, in California the crisis has spread outside of the coast.

anon291 4y ago

Part of the problem is the middle of housing was often in towns anchored by one or two factories or other local businesses. With businesses being hyper-centralized today due to the internet and technology decoupling business from land, employees are now located much more centrally (we'll see how remote work changes this). For example, Google has hundreds of thousands of employees in the Bay Area alone. That's crazy. In the past, this would have formed several towns all across the country (because Google would need such a footprint to be able to deliver services nationally). Now that anyone can start a large company without barely any land investment, it's no wonder people are increasingly concentrating in small portions of the country, while large portions are incredibly cheap, and in some places, depreciating.

nineplay 4y ago

Housing values in and around Silicon Valley have gone up extraordinarily since I was young for reasons that were not easily predictable. It's not a good model for housing costs in the rest of the US. I grew up in uninteresting towns in Monterey County and San Bernardino County and both could check off points of 'acceptable places to live' which are affordable to the middle classes. No one talks about them because no one cares.

linguae 4y ago
And even now these places are starting to become unaffordable for the middle class. I had an unsuccessful search last autumn for homes in Watsonville and northern Monterey County under $550,000 due to bidding wars that often resulted in homes selling for considerably more than asking. Prices are now starting to drop and inventory is rising, but interest rates are considerably higher than last fall when I started my search. There’s been an explosion in home prices in the California Central Valley since the pandemic started. In 2019 it was possible to buy a brand new house in Los Banos and Merced for $280,000 and $250,000, respectively. Today you need around $450,000 and $400,000, respectively, to purchase similar new homes. And it’s not just the cost of materials that led to the massive price hikes; the cost of pre-existing homes also boomed in these towns. I grew up in Sacramento and now rent an apartment in Santa Cruz County. Sacramento, once known for affordable housing with easy access to Bay Area and Tahoe amenities, is no longer affordable for many people. There are massive homeless encampments that I see whenever I visit the area these days. The housing situation is getting out of hand, and while this may not be indicative of a national crisis, in California the crisis has spread outside of the coast.