3 ms·

It is because it is incredibly difficult to build new housing. Zoning is the supply constraint.

by carom 4y ago

asdff 4y ago
LA for example is built into the 90% range of its zoned capacity today of 4.3 million people with a population of just under 4 million by official counts (higher in actually no doubt). Meanwhile, in the 1960s when homes in LA were actually affordable, the population was 2.5 million, with a zoned capacity of 10 million. That means if we want to make LA as affordable as it was in the 1960s, then we should zone the city for at least 16 million people, instead of 4.3 million people as it is zoned today. https://la.curbed.com/2015/4/8/9972362/everything-wrong-with-los-angeles-housing-in-one-graph https://la.curbed.com/2015/4/8/9972362/everything-wrong-with...
- carom 4y ago
  That's insane. More fun LA facts. LA produced ~60k housing units out of a goal of ~80k over the last 8 years. Their goal for the next 8 years is 450k. They are starting at least 1 year late due to the COVID eviction moratorium. Right now you still cannot Ellis Act an occupied property to demolish it. I would wager that they will not meet their goal.
  - asdff 4y ago
    There's a lot of low hanging fruit in LA for redevelopment that won't even require a tenant to leave. For example on most arteries you have single story commercial buildings with no one living on the property. There's also a lot of generally derelict property I've noticed for a number of years in very prominent locations that are not being redeveloped for whatever reason. For example, this building has seen a few structure fires recently. If you go back to 2007, the oldest date on google street view, it looks exactly the same, so its been in this state of disuse for at least 15 years. This is not a bad location to build an apartment; you are immediately adjacent to a red line station and other buildings nearby along Vermont Ave have been converted in recent years to new 5 over 1 style apartments. https://www.google.com/maps/@34.0767638,-118.2917173,3a,75y,299.38h,99.26t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sCIToXjM-086MSgaVUjSWhA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192 https://www.google.com/maps/@34.0767638,-118.2917173,3a,75y,...
    - carom 4y ago
      Ha, I know that building. There is always graffiti along the top. Didn't know it was empty. That's a 10/10, next to a metro stop and freeway entrance. I'd buy that in a heartbeat. Looks like it changed hands for 2.8m in 2019. Someone must just be sitting on it. There is low hanging fruit but people with smaller pockets need to go after what is available. I looked at every multi family listing for months in LA until I found something that wasn't bleeding cash and was zoned for more units. Most listings were just unrealistic and had some hold out tenants. It turned out to be bleeding cash, but still a good buy.
      - asdff 4y ago
        Don't forget the surface parking lots too. Plenty of great locations in downtown LA or Hollywood and elsewhere are squandered. This includes a corner lot on Hollywood and Vine, which seems pretty prime.

It is because it is incredibly difficult to build new housing. Zoning is the supply constraint.

by carom 4y ago

It is because it is incredibly difficult to build new housing. Zoning is the supply constraint.

LA for example is built into the 90% range of its zoned capacity today of 4.3 million people with a population of just under 4 million by official counts (higher in actually no doubt). Meanwhile, in the 1960s when homes in LA were actually affordable, the population was 2.5 million, with a zoned capacity of 10 million. That means if we want to make LA as affordable as it was in the 1960s, then we should zone the city for at least 16 million people, instead of 4.3 million people as it is zoned today. https://la.curbed.com/2015/4/8/9972362/everything-wrong-with-los-angeles-housing-in-one-graph https://la.curbed.com/2015/4/8/9972362/everything-wrong-with...

carom 4y ago
That's insane. More fun LA facts. LA produced ~60k housing units out of a goal of ~80k over the last 8 years. Their goal for the next 8 years is 450k. They are starting at least 1 year late due to the COVID eviction moratorium. Right now you still cannot Ellis Act an occupied property to demolish it. I would wager that they will not meet their goal.
- asdff 4y ago
  There's a lot of low hanging fruit in LA for redevelopment that won't even require a tenant to leave. For example on most arteries you have single story commercial buildings with no one living on the property. There's also a lot of generally derelict property I've noticed for a number of years in very prominent locations that are not being redeveloped for whatever reason. For example, this building has seen a few structure fires recently. If you go back to 2007, the oldest date on google street view, it looks exactly the same, so its been in this state of disuse for at least 15 years. This is not a bad location to build an apartment; you are immediately adjacent to a red line station and other buildings nearby along Vermont Ave have been converted in recent years to new 5 over 1 style apartments. https://www.google.com/maps/@34.0767638,-118.2917173,3a,75y,299.38h,99.26t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sCIToXjM-086MSgaVUjSWhA!2e0!7i16384!8i8192 https://www.google.com/maps/@34.0767638,-118.2917173,3a,75y,...
  - carom 4y ago
    Ha, I know that building. There is always graffiti along the top. Didn't know it was empty. That's a 10/10, next to a metro stop and freeway entrance. I'd buy that in a heartbeat. Looks like it changed hands for 2.8m in 2019. Someone must just be sitting on it. There is low hanging fruit but people with smaller pockets need to go after what is available. I looked at every multi family listing for months in LA until I found something that wasn't bleeding cash and was zoned for more units. Most listings were just unrealistic and had some hold out tenants. It turned out to be bleeding cash, but still a good buy.
    - asdff 4y ago
      Don't forget the surface parking lots too. Plenty of great locations in downtown LA or Hollywood and elsewhere are squandered. This includes a corner lot on Hollywood and Vine, which seems pretty prime.