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Not entirely true, people watching and in the field knew. Back in 2015 I made a massive bet on AMD because people on HN working in the field explained the arch

Not entirely true, people watching and in the field knew. Back in 2015 I made a massive bet on AMD because people on HN working in the field explained the arch shift. Similar with this move by Apple. There are people in those rooms, making the decisions, sharpening their ideas on HN — if we care to listen.

nebula8804 4y ago
The problem is how do you separate the gold from the cruft? Seems impossible. Also, so much cruft makes you miss the gold as well. :/
- cortesoft 4y ago
  From my understanding, it is way more costly to miss the gold than to get some cruft.
- lettergram 4y ago
  I actually wrote software to do that lol Built this: https://insideropinion.com/ https://insideropinion.com/ But use it for investments. You can’t completely remove risk, but I invest in areas where insiders discuss publicly about their work. It provides insight often fundamentals lack; leaving massive potential upside.
  - UncleEntity 4y ago
    Stalking as a Service? How could that possibly go wrong? I’m equal parts horrified and amazed. And curious what The Algorithm thinks about my ramblings.
senttoschool 4y ago
>Back in 2015 I made a massive bet on AMD because people on HN working in the field explained the arch shift. I think you got really lucky. Zen1 didn't ship until 2017 and it lagged severely behind in single thread. You had no idea what AMD was going to have. Even AMD would tell you that they were surprise that Intel fell so far behind. They've been quoted saying this a few times. Intel's 10nm Node (equivalent to TSMC 7nm) was suppose to ship in 2016! It didn't ship anything on the desktop using 10nm until Alder Lake in 2021. Five year delay. Intel would have been well ahead of Zen2 in node technology. Instead, it was around 1.5 node behind. If you made your bet purely on what was said inside AMD in 2015, you just got lucky. No one knew that Intel would be stuck on 14nm for 7 years when they were planning for 2 years.
- lettergram 4y ago
  There were a ton of Intel engineers at the time complaining about management in a different thread. I’m sure luck was involved (so many things could go wrong). But i tend to make money on bets based on what I hear on the fringe. AMD, Bitcoin, etc

nebula8804 4y ago

The problem is how do you separate the gold from the cruft? Seems impossible. Also, so much cruft makes you miss the gold as well. :/

cortesoft 4y ago
From my understanding, it is way more costly to miss the gold than to get some cruft.
lettergram 4y ago
I actually wrote software to do that lol Built this: https://insideropinion.com/ https://insideropinion.com/ But use it for investments. You can’t completely remove risk, but I invest in areas where insiders discuss publicly about their work. It provides insight often fundamentals lack; leaving massive potential upside.
- UncleEntity 4y ago
  Stalking as a Service? How could that possibly go wrong? I’m equal parts horrified and amazed. And curious what The Algorithm thinks about my ramblings.

senttoschool 4y ago

>Back in 2015 I made a massive bet on AMD because people on HN working in the field explained the arch shift. I think you got really lucky. Zen1 didn't ship until 2017 and it lagged severely behind in single thread. You had no idea what AMD was going to have. Even AMD would tell you that they were surprise that Intel fell so far behind. They've been quoted saying this a few times. Intel's 10nm Node (equivalent to TSMC 7nm) was suppose to ship in 2016! It didn't ship anything on the desktop using 10nm until Alder Lake in 2021. Five year delay. Intel would have been well ahead of Zen2 in node technology. Instead, it was around 1.5 node behind. If you made your bet purely on what was said inside AMD in 2015, you just got lucky. No one knew that Intel would be stuck on 14nm for 7 years when they were planning for 2 years.

lettergram 4y ago
There were a ton of Intel engineers at the time complaining about management in a different thread. I’m sure luck was involved (so many things could go wrong). But i tend to make money on bets based on what I hear on the fringe. AMD, Bitcoin, etc