16 ms·

The damage control by the Pakistani army is pretty crazy right now. Pakistan is on the verge of devolving into mass riots as Imran Khan has a massive fanbase.

by jbirer 4y ago

chamanbuga 4y ago
It certainly looks like this from the outside. The establishment has always kept control over Pakistan even when such social change was in the air. I expect the same to happen. Also I'm expecting IK to start dialling it back given the recent riots.
spaceman_2020 4y ago
Are you in Pakistan? What are things on the ground like? Arresting IK right now would be national harakiri. Surely they’re not going to do that?
walrus01 4y ago
For those people who haven't studied Pakistan extensively, the army has always run things, the politicians are just the thin veneer of pretense at democracy as a public face. The Army and the military forces in general are the people who really control the country. Pakistan makes a public show of having a parliamentary democracy with elected MPs and such but it's all a farce. Doesn't particularly matter whether Bhutto, Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan or anyone else.
- m00dy 4y ago
  "the army has always run things" sounds like Turkia but like 40 years ago
  - travisgriggs 4y ago
    And Egypt. And a bunch of countries in Asia.
    - 0xbadcafebee 4y ago
      When you have more guns than money, you get military dictatorship. When you have more money than guns, you get oligarchy.
      - labster 4y ago
        Sure, but if you have more holy books than guns or money, you get a theocracy.
- quadrifoliate 4y ago
  Well from time to time they make it pretty explicit too – like under Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, or Musharraf. About 30-odd of Pakistan's 75 years as an independent country have been explicitly under military dictatorships.
  - spaceman_2020 4y ago
    None of their civilian governments have lasted an entire term. Pretty damning.
    - nabeelam 4y ago
      That isn't correct since 2008. Two have: • 2008-13 PPP-led coalition government, which transferred power to the • 2013-18 PML(N) government, which transferred power to the • 2018-22 PTI (Khan's party) government, which was ousted in its penultimate year by a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly.
      - walrus01 4y ago
        0. zardari inherits power after his wife's assassination 1. PPP-led coalition government ousted in scandal of zardari's corruption. "mister ten percent", etc 2. nawaz sharif government ousted in scandal of nawaz sharif corruption (maybe that choice of microsoft word fonts in the faked documents for luxury UK real estate was not the best idea ever). 3. people finally "elected" khan 4. khan loses power in parliamentary no confidence vote none of those are exactly what an outsider would consider to be the normal and orderly transfer of power in an electoral system
        nabeelam 4y ago
        Sure, but I am arguing the strictly technical definition of terms completed by and power transferred between civilian governments. My own opinion: democracy is hardly a boolean value -- these transfers, faulty and flawed as they may be, did legitimize civilian rule in the public eye.
      - 4y ago
- johnyzee 4y ago
  To be fair, they do have "a parliamentary democracy with elected MPs". It's just that those elected MPs have some fairly strict limits on what they are allowed to govern (anything that does not involve the military, which in Pakistan is not a lot). Of course it doesn't help that the elected MPs have almost exclusively belonged to the same class of robber barons, Imran Khan being one notable exception. Pakistan actually has a pretty vibrant and critical media, in contrast to (other) military dictatorships. They have a lot of great political satire (that, again, stops short of criticizing the military).
  - skinnymuch 4y ago
    So it stops short of criticizing the actual power? That does seem like it can be better than other countries, but it can only be so much if the actual power is u touchable.
- namaria 4y ago
  American programs of "war on drugs" and "war on terror" has done a great job of making sure most of their client states are run by beefed up security forces behind a thin veneer of democracy.
  - walrus01 4y ago
    The US's involvement in Pakistan is much older and historical than the war on drugs/terror. They were flying U2s out of Peshawar in the 1960s. For a while, Chuck Yeager (yes, that Chuck Yeager) was the US military representative directly to the Pakistani military.
    - namaria 4y ago
      Yes. It doesn't invalidate what I said.
- ShivShankaran 4y ago
- bhedgeoser 4y ago
  How's that different for USA? Do you believe Biden has power?
- hadlock 4y ago
  Also, Khan made the mistake of signing a weapons deal with russia, I think literally 24 hours before Russia invaded ukraine. Within a week he was pushed out of power despite being wildly popular both domestically and internationally. It's not provable, but sure looks like a Very Popular politician being ousted via fast was regime change and he was being made an example to other leaders looking to make unapproved arms deals. I can't make any claims but if you look closely at what happened, the timing, it does not look great.
  - nojonestownpls 4y ago
    Not just that, he publicly made claims like "the US thinks they can control us and make our decisions for us, but they can't". Just a couple days after that, he started having problems with parliamentary support, that eventually led to him being ousted.
  - walrus01 4y ago
    Of much more practical and immediate concern is the Pakistani military's long standing and increasingly deep technical cooperation with China. Khan has a large populist support base but it's not exactly accurate to say he's wildly popular, a huge amount of people from Lahore and Punjab and the power base of elites supporting Nawaz Sharif and his friends are deeply opposed to him. They've spent lots of money on political opposition. And then there's all the Sindhi Bhutto and PPP supporters who don't like him either. He has maybe 45-50% support.
    - kamaal 4y ago
      Speaking as an Indian, Sub continent politics is totally messed up. India realised in the immediate events after Independence. Democracy won't survive if feudalism exists along side. It wasn't even that much of a difficult thing to understand, if you are a bonded labor under a feudal you pretty much do what the feudal says, and given the overall socio-economic situation of such places feudals would win anyway(Only feudals have the influence and money to even fight the elections). Though India abolished absentee landlordism, feudalism nevertheless continues. And even till date significant politics of India runs through political dynasties(former and current feudals). Add to this religion, every few years there is some popular majoritarian religious trend, often loaded with settling scores with the minorities for some imagined victimhood, some battle some king who belonged to your religion lost 800 years back, these are 'pride' related emotional issues on which masses vote. No one cares about education, or improving general standard of living. Add to this caste, regional and linguistic reasons. Democracy is mostly a sham even without fixing, because masses don't vote for their own good. To think of democracy in the sub continent, people vote to hurt others than to help themselves. A vote is mostly a downvote in many ways.
- bfuller 4y ago
  I would argue that it does matter because the will of the masses is an extraordinarily powerful force and provoking them by ousting someone universally loved like Khan (heck I am a huge Khan fan and wish we had politicians like that in the USA!) can cause huge societal waves. But I do agree with you, having the pleasure to know some upper class Pakistanis, that the military is the basis of the government.
edgyquant 4y ago
My hunch is that the real geopolitical upheaval of the next 50-100 years will be post-decolonization. A number of these nations were thrown together by a completely foreign power not just with an interest in splitting countries up or grouping them together but doing so in a way that prevents them becoming a peer level opponent.
- pphysch 4y ago
  50-100 years is quite a long time; it's already happening at an accelerating rate. Washington is rapidly losing its foothold in Latin America and SEA, France is losing West Africa. The West is in an unprecedented crisis right now and will be unable to compete with the next gen foreign policies coming out of China, Russia, and the many other "enemy states".
  - HappySweeney 4y ago
    Could you elaborate on "next gen foreign policies"?
    - selimthegrim 4y ago
      Maybe he’s been listening to Zaid Hamid too much.
    - jessaustin 4y ago
      Not OP, but I would offer "not sanctioning/embargoing a third of the world"...
    - pphysch 4y ago
      BRI, BRICS+, SCO, EAEU/"petroruble". the post-Washington Consensus
      - daemoens 4y ago
        The "post-Washingtion consensus" is too fragmented to have any real coordinated actions. BRICS is not some united force willing to work together. BRICS was meant for economies of similar scale to work together. China is already more than three times the size of the other 4 combined.The only thing that aligns all 5 now is generally anti-americanism which isn't much of a unifying force. China and India continue to worsen ties and Russia has become a bit of a pariah. Brazil and South Africa are too far apart from the rest for any meaningful cooperation.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

The damage control by the Pakistani army is pretty crazy right now. Pakistan is on the verge of devolving into mass riots as Imran Khan has a massive fanbase.

by jbirer 4y ago

The damage control by the Pakistani army is pretty crazy right now. Pakistan is on the verge of devolving into mass riots as Imran Khan has a massive fanbase.

chamanbuga 4y ago

It certainly looks like this from the outside. The establishment has always kept control over Pakistan even when such social change was in the air. I expect the same to happen. Also I'm expecting IK to start dialling it back given the recent riots.

spaceman_2020 4y ago

Are you in Pakistan? What are things on the ground like? Arresting IK right now would be national harakiri. Surely they’re not going to do that?

walrus01 4y ago

For those people who haven't studied Pakistan extensively, the army has always run things, the politicians are just the thin veneer of pretense at democracy as a public face. The Army and the military forces in general are the people who really control the country. Pakistan makes a public show of having a parliamentary democracy with elected MPs and such but it's all a farce. Doesn't particularly matter whether Bhutto, Zardari, Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan or anyone else.

m00dy 4y ago
"the army has always run things" sounds like Turkia but like 40 years ago
- travisgriggs 4y ago
  And Egypt. And a bunch of countries in Asia.
  - 0xbadcafebee 4y ago
    When you have more guns than money, you get military dictatorship. When you have more money than guns, you get oligarchy.
    - labster 4y ago
      Sure, but if you have more holy books than guns or money, you get a theocracy.
quadrifoliate 4y ago
Well from time to time they make it pretty explicit too – like under Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, or Musharraf. About 30-odd of Pakistan's 75 years as an independent country have been explicitly under military dictatorships.
- spaceman_2020 4y ago
  None of their civilian governments have lasted an entire term. Pretty damning.
  - nabeelam 4y ago
    That isn't correct since 2008. Two have: • 2008-13 PPP-led coalition government, which transferred power to the • 2013-18 PML(N) government, which transferred power to the • 2018-22 PTI (Khan's party) government, which was ousted in its penultimate year by a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly.
    - walrus01 4y ago
      0. zardari inherits power after his wife's assassination 1. PPP-led coalition government ousted in scandal of zardari's corruption. "mister ten percent", etc 2. nawaz sharif government ousted in scandal of nawaz sharif corruption (maybe that choice of microsoft word fonts in the faked documents for luxury UK real estate was not the best idea ever). 3. people finally "elected" khan 4. khan loses power in parliamentary no confidence vote none of those are exactly what an outsider would consider to be the normal and orderly transfer of power in an electoral system
      - nabeelam 4y ago
        Sure, but I am arguing the strictly technical definition of terms completed by and power transferred between civilian governments. My own opinion: democracy is hardly a boolean value -- these transfers, faulty and flawed as they may be, did legitimize civilian rule in the public eye.
    - 4y ago
johnyzee 4y ago
To be fair, they do have "a parliamentary democracy with elected MPs". It's just that those elected MPs have some fairly strict limits on what they are allowed to govern (anything that does not involve the military, which in Pakistan is not a lot). Of course it doesn't help that the elected MPs have almost exclusively belonged to the same class of robber barons, Imran Khan being one notable exception. Pakistan actually has a pretty vibrant and critical media, in contrast to (other) military dictatorships. They have a lot of great political satire (that, again, stops short of criticizing the military).
- skinnymuch 4y ago
  So it stops short of criticizing the actual power? That does seem like it can be better than other countries, but it can only be so much if the actual power is u touchable.
namaria 4y ago
American programs of "war on drugs" and "war on terror" has done a great job of making sure most of their client states are run by beefed up security forces behind a thin veneer of democracy.
- walrus01 4y ago
  The US's involvement in Pakistan is much older and historical than the war on drugs/terror. They were flying U2s out of Peshawar in the 1960s. For a while, Chuck Yeager (yes, that Chuck Yeager) was the US military representative directly to the Pakistani military.
  - namaria 4y ago
    Yes. It doesn't invalidate what I said.
ShivShankaran 4y ago
bhedgeoser 4y ago
How's that different for USA? Do you believe Biden has power?
hadlock 4y ago
Also, Khan made the mistake of signing a weapons deal with russia, I think literally 24 hours before Russia invaded ukraine. Within a week he was pushed out of power despite being wildly popular both domestically and internationally. It's not provable, but sure looks like a Very Popular politician being ousted via fast was regime change and he was being made an example to other leaders looking to make unapproved arms deals. I can't make any claims but if you look closely at what happened, the timing, it does not look great.
- nojonestownpls 4y ago
  Not just that, he publicly made claims like "the US thinks they can control us and make our decisions for us, but they can't". Just a couple days after that, he started having problems with parliamentary support, that eventually led to him being ousted.
- walrus01 4y ago
  Of much more practical and immediate concern is the Pakistani military's long standing and increasingly deep technical cooperation with China. Khan has a large populist support base but it's not exactly accurate to say he's wildly popular, a huge amount of people from Lahore and Punjab and the power base of elites supporting Nawaz Sharif and his friends are deeply opposed to him. They've spent lots of money on political opposition. And then there's all the Sindhi Bhutto and PPP supporters who don't like him either. He has maybe 45-50% support.
  - kamaal 4y ago
    Speaking as an Indian, Sub continent politics is totally messed up. India realised in the immediate events after Independence. Democracy won't survive if feudalism exists along side. It wasn't even that much of a difficult thing to understand, if you are a bonded labor under a feudal you pretty much do what the feudal says, and given the overall socio-economic situation of such places feudals would win anyway(Only feudals have the influence and money to even fight the elections). Though India abolished absentee landlordism, feudalism nevertheless continues. And even till date significant politics of India runs through political dynasties(former and current feudals). Add to this religion, every few years there is some popular majoritarian religious trend, often loaded with settling scores with the minorities for some imagined victimhood, some battle some king who belonged to your religion lost 800 years back, these are 'pride' related emotional issues on which masses vote. No one cares about education, or improving general standard of living. Add to this caste, regional and linguistic reasons. Democracy is mostly a sham even without fixing, because masses don't vote for their own good. To think of democracy in the sub continent, people vote to hurt others than to help themselves. A vote is mostly a downvote in many ways.
bfuller 4y ago
I would argue that it does matter because the will of the masses is an extraordinarily powerful force and provoking them by ousting someone universally loved like Khan (heck I am a huge Khan fan and wish we had politicians like that in the USA!) can cause huge societal waves. But I do agree with you, having the pleasure to know some upper class Pakistanis, that the military is the basis of the government.

edgyquant 4y ago

My hunch is that the real geopolitical upheaval of the next 50-100 years will be post-decolonization. A number of these nations were thrown together by a completely foreign power not just with an interest in splitting countries up or grouping them together but doing so in a way that prevents them becoming a peer level opponent.

pphysch 4y ago
50-100 years is quite a long time; it's already happening at an accelerating rate. Washington is rapidly losing its foothold in Latin America and SEA, France is losing West Africa. The West is in an unprecedented crisis right now and will be unable to compete with the next gen foreign policies coming out of China, Russia, and the many other "enemy states".
- HappySweeney 4y ago
  Could you elaborate on "next gen foreign policies"?
  - selimthegrim 4y ago
    Maybe he’s been listening to Zaid Hamid too much.
  - jessaustin 4y ago
    Not OP, but I would offer "not sanctioning/embargoing a third of the world"...
  - pphysch 4y ago
    BRI, BRICS+, SCO, EAEU/"petroruble". the post-Washington Consensus
    - daemoens 4y ago
      The "post-Washingtion consensus" is too fragmented to have any real coordinated actions. BRICS is not some united force willing to work together. BRICS was meant for economies of similar scale to work together. China is already more than three times the size of the other 4 combined.The only thing that aligns all 5 now is generally anti-americanism which isn't much of a unifying force. China and India continue to worsen ties and Russia has become a bit of a pariah. Brazil and South Africa are too far apart from the rest for any meaningful cooperation.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]