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> German economy, among the most exposed to disruptions in Russian gas supply, is "likely" to suffer a recession over the winter if the energy crisis continues
by unpopularopp 4y ago
> German economy, among the most exposed to disruptions in Russian gas supply, is "likely" to suffer a recession over the winter if the energy crisis continues to deepen
At this point I feel the EU is pretty much done and the war just showed how weak the EU leadership is along how individual member nations acting sometimes totally against each other (see France doubling down on nuclear while Germany does the opposite). Like I don't see any positive outcome for the Union no matter what happens in the war, unless you see the US having an even greater influence over Europe as a positive thing. Personally I'm extremely pessimistic.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago> I don't see any positive outcome for the Union no matter what happens in the war If you put zero value on European unity, and the security and economic benefits that brings, of course you aren’t going to value the EU. If Texans didn’t care when New York was attacked, it would be reasonable to ask why the U.S. is a thing. For what it’s worth, France building nukes while Germany snubs them is analogous to e.g. Kentucky burning coal while California puts down solar.
- thiago_fm 4y ago
- KingOfCoders 4y agoLet the Russians bomb and invade Washington State and we'll see how the dollar does.
- emaginniss 4y agoI think if the Russians bombed Washington State, the rest of the US would actually help defend it by attacking Russia. While the military help that the EU is giving Ukraine is great, it is far below the level that the other states would provide Washington. I know that isn't exactly your point, but you can't say that Ukraine is as intrinsic to the EU as Washington State is to the rest of the US.
- coffee_beqn 4y agoUkraine is also not in the EU.
- thehappypm 4y agoSo the whole comparison of Washington getting bombed is nonsense.
- Aulig 4y agoWell, Ukraine is not part of the EU, so it can hardly be intrinsic to it.
- WastingMyTime89 4y ago> While the military help that the EU is giving Ukraine is great It seems adequate. Europe is helping Ukraine and putting pressure for a quick end to the conflict. The real question is why is the US helping so much to the point Ukraine is refusing to negotiate. Part of me thinks it’s actually advantageous to them to weaken both Russia and the EU.
- makomk 4y agoThe US, through NATO, is committed to defending much of Europe and the EU against Russian invasion if they decide to try anything. This war was an opportunity to demonstrate that the price will be too high to for Russia to pay and that they will not be allowed to get away with annexing other European countries, while destroying a large chunk of their military capacity in the process, all without having to actually commit the US military to fighting on the ground like they would if Russia decided to get grabby elsewhere. It is in their direct interests to seize that opportunity.
- WastingMyTime89 4y agoFor sure it’s directly in the interest of the USA in the same way NATO actually keeps Europe subservient and prevent the EU from actually being a power. It’s just the usual raw deal for European countries which are going to have to deal with huge damage to their economies. But we have only ourselves to blame. We should have sent the US packing a long time ago.
- tacitusarc 4y agoThat’s an interesting question. It would realistically escalate to nuclear war. But I’d we set that aside, it’s not immediately obvious to me how the dollar would do. It might actually strengthen.
- f6v 4y agoUkraine is not in EU and shouldn’t be there.
- mantas 4y agoLooking at certain EU members friendliness towards Russia, several other states shall be kicked out...
- blub 4y agoYou’re confusing the EU with NATO. Trade with Russia was obviously positive for the EU, as can be noticed from the economic damage and energy availability crisis.
- mantas 4y agoShort term positive, long term destructive. Ergo negative. Addiction to cheap resources prevented politically sustainable energy sector development. On top of that, it's likely that corruption was involved. Which is cancer that tends to cause more corruption in semi-related parts of the system. Once politicians sell out, it's much easier to bend them again. Be it pure greed or blackmailing.
- blub 4y agoIf by short term you mean about 40 years for natural gas and a few decades for everything else, I guess we can agree that it was short-term positive. Although that would make the idea of long-term superfluous :-) Put another way, if it weren't for USA's hard stance, many large EU economies would have few misgivings about continuing to do business with Russia. And even hardliners like Poland AFAIK are still buying Russian gas through Germany, as do several others including Ukraine. The reason they're doing that is because they need it, it's there and it's good for keeping their economies and societies in functioning order. Was there corruption? You bet, former USSR states were and are drowning in it and the West was certainly not spared either. Doesn't change the fact that they need resources though and there's not a lot of alternative suppliers.
- causi 4y agoIt's more like the Russians bombing and invading, say, Cuba.
- KingOfCoders 4y agoMexico.
- s1artibartfast 4y agoA better analogy is if China invaded Mongolia and the US decided to cut trade. Ukraine is not part of the EU and the EU decided to take a moral position and live with the financial consequences that go with it.
- mensetmanusman 4y agoNot a great analogy, because refugees from Mongolia would not flee to the EU the next day.
- s1artibartfast 4y agoMongolians would flee to the US if the US gave them free access to visas. Mostly another self imposed problem.