4 ms·

Proof?

by bageljr 4y ago

Proof?

bobsmooth 4y ago
There were no American expats who committed suicide during the time that Near supposedly took his life.
- ksrm 4y ago
  The list doesn't appear to be exhaustive. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29066186 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29066186
  - richbell 4y ago
    > There are 50k US citizens in Japan - none dying for months seems impossible As far as I can tell that claim is purely based on speculation. It's possible that the death wasn't reported, or was somehow reported as "natural". However, it's impossible to know due to the lack of any basic information. (And I think improbable that Japan, of all places, would screw up the paperwork.) Not to detract from the overall point — I think there are many reasons to dislike Kiwi Farms — but making dubious claims muddies the water.
richbell 4y ago
It's a bit strange that the burden of proof is on people contesting allegations about an anonymous person. As far as I can tell the original claim has no proof whatsoever. That said, after digging into this a bit more it seems that the most credible proof he didn't commit suicide is that the U.S. State Department has no record of it. They allegedly killed themselves in June but according to government records no US citizen died of suicide in Japan in June. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/while-abroad/death-abroad1/death-statistics.html https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-tra...
- bageljr 4y ago
  1. They use they/them pronouns 2. The original claim, being that Near commited suicide due to Kiwi Farm, was documented in the link two comments up. As another commenter said, the government records state that no US citizen died at all in Japan in June 2021. This is of course a bit ridiculous given that 50,000+ people live there and 10-12 people die per 1000 people per month in Japan. This means that around 500 US citizens should have died in Japan that month. Obviously, the US government doesn't have to account for literally all its citizens dying for any cause anywhere, just the important ones. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1011514/japan-mortality-rate-monthly/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1011514/japan-mortality-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_in_Japan
  - richbell 4y ago
    > 1. They use they/them pronouns Near used both he/him and they/them, per the person who alleged they committed suicide: https://mobile.twitter.com/marcan42/status/1410419913332723713 https://mobile.twitter.com/marcan42/status/14104199133327237... > 2. The original claim, being that Near commited suicide due to Kiwi Farm, was documented in the link two comments up. > > As another commenter said, the government records state that no US citizen died at all in Japan in June 2021. This is of course a bit ridiculous given that 50,000+ people live there and 10-12 people die per 1000 people per month in Japan. This means that around 500 US citizens should have died in Japan that month. Obviously, the US government doesn't have to account for literally all its citizens dying for any cause anywhere, just the important ones. "Expected" numbers mean nothing: in the real world, unexpected things happen all the time. This is a fallacious argument reminiscent of https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages . This is all wild speculation without evidence.
    - bageljr 4y ago
      1. Oh I see, didn't know that. 2. Sure its an expected number, but its ridiculous that there would be literally 0 deaths given 50,000 people (this was 2012, so I expect it would have grown).
- pseudalopex 4y ago
  USA Today reported Near's full name and suicide. Hector Martin claimed police confirmed. How was it determined Near was in Japan at the time? Or was it assumed because they lived there? You didn't say Near's suicide was unproven. You suggested it was proven a hoax. It's not strange people ask for proof when proof was claimed.
phendrenad2 4y ago
I don't think there's conclusive evidence one way or the other. Someone claiming to be Near claimed to be committing suicide, and someone claiming to know Near claimed to have confirmation. No further evidence has surfaced. Personally I'm inclined to believe it (his last tweet still haunts me), but because an entire web forum is being accused of being responsible for it, it bears getting to the truth, at some point.
- pseudalopex 4y ago
  USA Today reported Near died by suicide. Would anyone stop defending Kiwi Farms if Near's suicide was proven? Would anyone decide Kiwi Farms is not so bad if Near was proven alive? 2 other targets' suicides are undisputed as far as I know. Kiwi Farms defenders say anyone who killed themselves because of harassment would have killed themselves anyway. And they say an unenforceable rule against interacting with targets means the forum can't be blamed.
  - phendrenad2 4y ago
    Even the USA Today article says "allegedly". And you're right, everyone has already made up their mind based on feelings. That's the cool thing about facts, you don't have to do that.
    - pseudalopex 4y ago
      > Even the USA Today article says "allegedly". The headline said Respected developer who was bullied online dies by suicide. My browser found allegedly nowhere in the article. I didn't see anything similar to allegedly when I skimmed it again. Could you point it out?[1] > And you're right, everyone has already made up their mind based on feelings. That's the cool thing about facts, you don't have to do that. Not what I said. The cool thing about facts is they shape opinions and actions. I don't think many opinions are shaped by the difference between 2 and 3 deaths. [1] https://news.yahoo.com/respected-developer-died-suicide-experts-165758039.html https://news.yahoo.com/respected-developer-died-suicide-expe...
ekianjo 4y ago
> Proof? So you get third party reports on the net from unknown people, and you tend to believe it at face value? this may well have happened, but everyone should exercise a bit more caution when reading stuff online.

Proof?

bobsmooth 4y ago

There were no American expats who committed suicide during the time that Near supposedly took his life.

ksrm 4y ago
The list doesn't appear to be exhaustive. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29066186 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29066186
- richbell 4y ago
  > There are 50k US citizens in Japan - none dying for months seems impossible As far as I can tell that claim is purely based on speculation. It's possible that the death wasn't reported, or was somehow reported as "natural". However, it's impossible to know due to the lack of any basic information. (And I think improbable that Japan, of all places, would screw up the paperwork.) Not to detract from the overall point — I think there are many reasons to dislike Kiwi Farms — but making dubious claims muddies the water.

richbell 4y ago

It's a bit strange that the burden of proof is on people contesting allegations about an anonymous person. As far as I can tell the original claim has no proof whatsoever. That said, after digging into this a bit more it seems that the most credible proof he didn't commit suicide is that the U.S. State Department has no record of it. They allegedly killed themselves in June but according to government records no US citizen died of suicide in Japan in June. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/while-abroad/death-abroad1/death-statistics.html https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-tra...

bageljr 4y ago
1. They use they/them pronouns 2. The original claim, being that Near commited suicide due to Kiwi Farm, was documented in the link two comments up. As another commenter said, the government records state that no US citizen died at all in Japan in June 2021. This is of course a bit ridiculous given that 50,000+ people live there and 10-12 people die per 1000 people per month in Japan. This means that around 500 US citizens should have died in Japan that month. Obviously, the US government doesn't have to account for literally all its citizens dying for any cause anywhere, just the important ones. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1011514/japan-mortality-rate-monthly/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1011514/japan-mortality-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_in_Japan
- richbell 4y ago
  > 1. They use they/them pronouns Near used both he/him and they/them, per the person who alleged they committed suicide: https://mobile.twitter.com/marcan42/status/1410419913332723713 https://mobile.twitter.com/marcan42/status/14104199133327237... > 2. The original claim, being that Near commited suicide due to Kiwi Farm, was documented in the link two comments up. > > As another commenter said, the government records state that no US citizen died at all in Japan in June 2021. This is of course a bit ridiculous given that 50,000+ people live there and 10-12 people die per 1000 people per month in Japan. This means that around 500 US citizens should have died in Japan that month. Obviously, the US government doesn't have to account for literally all its citizens dying for any cause anywhere, just the important ones. "Expected" numbers mean nothing: in the real world, unexpected things happen all the time. This is a fallacious argument reminiscent of https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages . This is all wild speculation without evidence.
  - bageljr 4y ago
    1. Oh I see, didn't know that. 2. Sure its an expected number, but its ridiculous that there would be literally 0 deaths given 50,000 people (this was 2012, so I expect it would have grown).
pseudalopex 4y ago
USA Today reported Near's full name and suicide. Hector Martin claimed police confirmed. How was it determined Near was in Japan at the time? Or was it assumed because they lived there? You didn't say Near's suicide was unproven. You suggested it was proven a hoax. It's not strange people ask for proof when proof was claimed.

phendrenad2 4y ago

I don't think there's conclusive evidence one way or the other. Someone claiming to be Near claimed to be committing suicide, and someone claiming to know Near claimed to have confirmation. No further evidence has surfaced. Personally I'm inclined to believe it (his last tweet still haunts me), but because an entire web forum is being accused of being responsible for it, it bears getting to the truth, at some point.

pseudalopex 4y ago
USA Today reported Near died by suicide. Would anyone stop defending Kiwi Farms if Near's suicide was proven? Would anyone decide Kiwi Farms is not so bad if Near was proven alive? 2 other targets' suicides are undisputed as far as I know. Kiwi Farms defenders say anyone who killed themselves because of harassment would have killed themselves anyway. And they say an unenforceable rule against interacting with targets means the forum can't be blamed.
- phendrenad2 4y ago
  Even the USA Today article says "allegedly". And you're right, everyone has already made up their mind based on feelings. That's the cool thing about facts, you don't have to do that.
  - pseudalopex 4y ago
    > Even the USA Today article says "allegedly". The headline said Respected developer who was bullied online dies by suicide. My browser found allegedly nowhere in the article. I didn't see anything similar to allegedly when I skimmed it again. Could you point it out?[1] > And you're right, everyone has already made up their mind based on feelings. That's the cool thing about facts, you don't have to do that. Not what I said. The cool thing about facts is they shape opinions and actions. I don't think many opinions are shaped by the difference between 2 and 3 deaths. [1] https://news.yahoo.com/respected-developer-died-suicide-experts-165758039.html https://news.yahoo.com/respected-developer-died-suicide-expe...

ekianjo 4y ago

> Proof? So you get third party reports on the net from unknown people, and you tend to believe it at face value? this may well have happened, but everyone should exercise a bit more caution when reading stuff online.