3 ms·

> I assume something like Moore’s Law applies tbh. We're nearing the limits of physics already. I do expect hardware to get much faster still, but not forever

> I assume something like Moore’s Law applies tbh. We're nearing the limits of physics already. I do expect hardware to get much faster still, but not forever and not as fast as now. > I agree of course it makes order of magnitude slower. The point is - how long until this slow is good enough to perform immensely useful things, with a better distribution of wealth generation than the current datacenter model? I think really never. Because the rest of the world doesn't sit idle, and most anything can be done the traditional way. You could pay huge $$$ to create a smart contract on ETH, or you could get more power than any normal person could afford on the Ethereum blockchain on the AWS EC2 free tier. If you think paying amounts with a few zeroes in them is a sensible thing, then you have far more computing power available. I think the only reason to use the blockchain is if you really need the blockchain. And the vast majority of computing doesn't. And as we're seeing, the blockchain is very much vulnerable if the world wants to push it around badly enough.

kranke155 4y ago
Mostly everything can be done in the traditional way - and much faster indeed. The point of blockchain is a superior social solution, not technical. I agree with you we will use blockchain where it’s necessary, but I suspect that’s a decent percentage of our future digital world.
- dale_glass 4y ago
  > Mostly everything can be done in the traditional way - and much faster indeed. The point of blockchain is a superior social solution, not technical. That's highly arguable. It's a superior social solution if you buy into a very, very specific kind of "social", and are happy with systems that operate within a very limited realm. Eg, if you like the existence of things like chargebacks, then the blockchain isn't the kind of solution you want. And you also need for the entire problem to reside inside the blockchain ideally. Blockchains lose any power if they have to interact with the outside world. You can make guarantees around how ETH moves from A to B, but if say, a physical product is involved then the blockchain can't do anything about it.
  - kranke155 4y ago
    This is true and also why I think NFTs worked so well - they solved a digital asset problem, not a physical asset problem. I suspect that’s the kind of problem blockchain will solve more. The “physical things on blockchain” movement is sort of not working out imo.
    - dale_glass 4y ago
      I don't think NFTs worked well at all -- they had a brief spike of popularity then were mostly forgotten. Right now BendDAO is in trouble because nobody really cares about NFTs anymore, they can't sell the ones they got as a collateral, and already ran out of funds.
      - kranke155 4y ago
        The NFT scene I am part of, running on Tezos markets like Versum and FXhash, is incredibly vibrant. The idea that somehow the market is gone is really only true for the wash trading / BAYC madness, which was silly and meaningless to begin with. Artists on FXhash are selling out editions of 200 in 15 minutes. It’s an incredibly vibrant market and the whole concept of FXhash is a revolution in generative art. NFTs are not dead. Here are 3 real artists selling NFTs right now. Deeway Kwon https://twitter.com/deekaymotion?s=21&t=ipDuaTxacsrVG2ZqS5NbAw https://twitter.com/deekaymotion?s=21&t=ipDuaTxacsrVG2ZqS5Nb... Kato https://objkt.com/profile/tz1LA28RxLyzg4iV9jxDLrmzgC6WwCHT2fMZ/created https://objkt.com/profile/tz1LA28RxLyzg4iV9jxDLrmzgC6WwCHT2f... Jose Gasparian https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/created https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/created Most of “web3” is scams, ponzis and foolishness. But NFTs are changing the lives of digital artists everywhere. Bizarrely this seems to be something that most people at HN are completely alienated from. But NFTs work. The fact that not everyone is making millions anymore is irrelevant - as a working artist in a cheaper country you can make a decent living if you develop a community. It can also be a very healthy second income.
        dale_glass 4y ago
        You're pulling on my leg, right? Let's see: kato is being followed by 43 people, Jose Gasparian by 24. That's "nobody cares" territory. I've seen not particularly amazing furry artists sign up for a new site and gather 200 watchers in a single day by just posting a couple decent pictures. Both of those people seem to have been around for about a year. If you look at the lists you posted, nobody's offering anything. kato has a single picture with "offer = 0.30". Gasparian has a single picture with "offer = 5.0". Okay, let's see what fancy stuff those people own instead: https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/owned?sort=lowest_ask:desc https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/owned?sort=lowest_ask:de... https://objkt.com/asset/hicetnunc/768355 https://objkt.com/asset/hicetnunc/768355 Oh look, in the history they all sold for 3, and now somebody is trying to sell their copy for 500. Now for kato: https://objkt.com/asset/KT1C6ikdV1dCEdzfqG1wevsfMtZbP5zr1Tuh/15 https://objkt.com/asset/KT1C6ikdV1dCEdzfqG1wevsfMtZbP5zr1Tuh... Same shit, bought a thing for 1.5 trying to resell for 1000. Look at activity: https://objkt.com/asset/fxhash/1110428 https://objkt.com/asset/fxhash/1110428 In a single day, a NFT goes from creator through half a dozen owners. Yeah, I don't think those people even look at what they buy, and lots of people own lots of random crap, like barely distinct pictures from the same series. I don't know what this is, but it's not an art market, because it certainly never occurred to me to buy a picture and then put it for sale again on the same day for a couple dollars more. That's more like using NFTs as money. It could be money laundering, or payments for services, or wash trading, but whatever it is, it doesn't much like an art market to me.

kranke155 4y ago

Mostly everything can be done in the traditional way - and much faster indeed. The point of blockchain is a superior social solution, not technical. I agree with you we will use blockchain where it’s necessary, but I suspect that’s a decent percentage of our future digital world.

dale_glass 4y ago
> Mostly everything can be done in the traditional way - and much faster indeed. The point of blockchain is a superior social solution, not technical. That's highly arguable. It's a superior social solution if you buy into a very, very specific kind of "social", and are happy with systems that operate within a very limited realm. Eg, if you like the existence of things like chargebacks, then the blockchain isn't the kind of solution you want. And you also need for the entire problem to reside inside the blockchain ideally. Blockchains lose any power if they have to interact with the outside world. You can make guarantees around how ETH moves from A to B, but if say, a physical product is involved then the blockchain can't do anything about it.
- kranke155 4y ago
  This is true and also why I think NFTs worked so well - they solved a digital asset problem, not a physical asset problem. I suspect that’s the kind of problem blockchain will solve more. The “physical things on blockchain” movement is sort of not working out imo.
  - dale_glass 4y ago
    I don't think NFTs worked well at all -- they had a brief spike of popularity then were mostly forgotten. Right now BendDAO is in trouble because nobody really cares about NFTs anymore, they can't sell the ones they got as a collateral, and already ran out of funds.
    - kranke155 4y ago
      The NFT scene I am part of, running on Tezos markets like Versum and FXhash, is incredibly vibrant. The idea that somehow the market is gone is really only true for the wash trading / BAYC madness, which was silly and meaningless to begin with. Artists on FXhash are selling out editions of 200 in 15 minutes. It’s an incredibly vibrant market and the whole concept of FXhash is a revolution in generative art. NFTs are not dead. Here are 3 real artists selling NFTs right now. Deeway Kwon https://twitter.com/deekaymotion?s=21&t=ipDuaTxacsrVG2ZqS5NbAw https://twitter.com/deekaymotion?s=21&t=ipDuaTxacsrVG2ZqS5Nb... Kato https://objkt.com/profile/tz1LA28RxLyzg4iV9jxDLrmzgC6WwCHT2fMZ/created https://objkt.com/profile/tz1LA28RxLyzg4iV9jxDLrmzgC6WwCHT2f... Jose Gasparian https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/created https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/created Most of “web3” is scams, ponzis and foolishness. But NFTs are changing the lives of digital artists everywhere. Bizarrely this seems to be something that most people at HN are completely alienated from. But NFTs work. The fact that not everyone is making millions anymore is irrelevant - as a working artist in a cheaper country you can make a decent living if you develop a community. It can also be a very healthy second income.
      - dale_glass 4y ago
        You're pulling on my leg, right? Let's see: kato is being followed by 43 people, Jose Gasparian by 24. That's "nobody cares" territory. I've seen not particularly amazing furry artists sign up for a new site and gather 200 watchers in a single day by just posting a couple decent pictures. Both of those people seem to have been around for about a year. If you look at the lists you posted, nobody's offering anything. kato has a single picture with "offer = 0.30". Gasparian has a single picture with "offer = 5.0". Okay, let's see what fancy stuff those people own instead: https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/owned?sort=lowest_ask:desc https://objkt.com/profile/gasparian/owned?sort=lowest_ask:de... https://objkt.com/asset/hicetnunc/768355 https://objkt.com/asset/hicetnunc/768355 Oh look, in the history they all sold for 3, and now somebody is trying to sell their copy for 500. Now for kato: https://objkt.com/asset/KT1C6ikdV1dCEdzfqG1wevsfMtZbP5zr1Tuh/15 https://objkt.com/asset/KT1C6ikdV1dCEdzfqG1wevsfMtZbP5zr1Tuh... Same shit, bought a thing for 1.5 trying to resell for 1000. Look at activity: https://objkt.com/asset/fxhash/1110428 https://objkt.com/asset/fxhash/1110428 In a single day, a NFT goes from creator through half a dozen owners. Yeah, I don't think those people even look at what they buy, and lots of people own lots of random crap, like barely distinct pictures from the same series. I don't know what this is, but it's not an art market, because it certainly never occurred to me to buy a picture and then put it for sale again on the same day for a couple dollars more. That's more like using NFTs as money. It could be money laundering, or payments for services, or wash trading, but whatever it is, it doesn't much like an art market to me.