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I am highly skeptical there'a any clear causal relationship between complexity and collapse, but let's say there's some. I would rank nuclear war and a few othe

I am highly skeptical there'a any clear causal relationship between complexity and collapse, but let's say there's some. I would rank nuclear war and a few others (climate change, or more broadly environmental imbalance caused by humanity) much more plausible and realistic cause for the collapse, way higher than what meager change this has, and thus this is mostly a distraction and intellectual pastime than something that is worth our collective attention.

yomkippur 4y ago
Chance of nuclear war is low. Climate change exasperates the underlying scarcity of resources that pressures those not at the top.
- dredmorbius 4y ago
  NB: exacerbates. https://www.dictionary.com/compare-words/exasperate-vs-exacerbate https://www.dictionary.com/compare-words/exasperate-vs-exace...
  - yomkippur 4y ago
    hey you should take a break from HN, your posting history frequency is a bit disturbing.
- vkou 4y ago
  The chance of nuclear war in any particular year is low, but I wouldn't say that the chance of a nuclear war is low. We were seconds away from midnight multiple times in the twentieth century. The political and technical failsafes against it need to work every time.
dredmorbius 4y ago
Long, slow, persistent frictions and rot tend to be more destructive over time than sudden attack or incident, though the rot may enable a specific incident to become a determinative trigger. C.f., Bonhoeffer on the danger of stupidity --- unlike determined malice, it never rests and knows no bounds or restraints: Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice. One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force. Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own subversion in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease. Against stupidity we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed- in such moments the stupid person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental. In all this the stupid person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self-satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack. For that reason, greater caution is called for than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the stupid person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous. ... https://www.platoscave.org/2021/10/bonhoeffer-on-stupidity-entire-quote.html https://www.platoscave.org/2021/10/bonhoeffer-on-stupidity-e... (The essay continues, I strongly recommend it.)
- jq-r 4y ago
  Excellent read, thanks! I guess this is what we call populism today. Relatively smart people filling the minds of the populace with stupidity, slogans and catchwords just to do their bidding when the time comes.
  - dredmorbius 4y ago
    It doesn't have to be populism. It could be a toddler or child near dangerous equipment, it could be a primitive society, or an arrogant colonialising force ignoring local wisdom. It could be management interfering with engineers, or engineers with management. It could be the general public trying to address complex topics. It could be specialists presuming greater understanding over complex issues. It could be an individual or group blinded by panic, confusion, injury, or disease. It could be technologists attempting social fixes, or social practitioners addressing scientific ones. The common thread is that it is the ignorance itself, and the stupidity (perhaps domain-specific, temporary, contextual, or emergent) which matters. The essay is exceptionally insightful.
wizofaus 4y ago
Arguably our inability to reform our economies to be more compatible with ecological sustainability is partly due to the level (and consequent inertia) of complexity in our systems though. Though I'd say the lack of motivation is largely due to human nature (there's presumably never been sufficient selective pressure to favour genes linked with the ability to properly plan for futures beyond our own lifespans or to be concerned by global-scale long term threats).

yomkippur 4y ago

Chance of nuclear war is low. Climate change exasperates the underlying scarcity of resources that pressures those not at the top.

dredmorbius 4y ago
NB: exacerbates. https://www.dictionary.com/compare-words/exasperate-vs-exacerbate https://www.dictionary.com/compare-words/exasperate-vs-exace...
- yomkippur 4y ago
  hey you should take a break from HN, your posting history frequency is a bit disturbing.
vkou 4y ago
The chance of nuclear war in any particular year is low, but I wouldn't say that the chance of a nuclear war is low. We were seconds away from midnight multiple times in the twentieth century. The political and technical failsafes against it need to work every time.

dredmorbius 4y ago

Long, slow, persistent frictions and rot tend to be more destructive over time than sudden attack or incident, though the rot may enable a specific incident to become a determinative trigger. C.f., Bonhoeffer on the danger of stupidity --- unlike determined malice, it never rests and knows no bounds or restraints: Stupidity is a more dangerous enemy of the good than malice. One may protest against evil; it can be exposed and, if need be, prevented by use of force. Evil always carries within itself the germ of its own subversion in that it leaves behind in human beings at least a sense of unease. Against stupidity we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed- in such moments the stupid person even becomes critical – and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental. In all this the stupid person, in contrast to the malicious one, is utterly self-satisfied and, being easily irritated, becomes dangerous by going on the attack. For that reason, greater caution is called for than with a malicious one. Never again will we try to persuade the stupid person with reasons, for it is senseless and dangerous. ... https://www.platoscave.org/2021/10/bonhoeffer-on-stupidity-entire-quote.html https://www.platoscave.org/2021/10/bonhoeffer-on-stupidity-e... (The essay continues, I strongly recommend it.)

jq-r 4y ago
Excellent read, thanks! I guess this is what we call populism today. Relatively smart people filling the minds of the populace with stupidity, slogans and catchwords just to do their bidding when the time comes.
- dredmorbius 4y ago
  It doesn't have to be populism. It could be a toddler or child near dangerous equipment, it could be a primitive society, or an arrogant colonialising force ignoring local wisdom. It could be management interfering with engineers, or engineers with management. It could be the general public trying to address complex topics. It could be specialists presuming greater understanding over complex issues. It could be an individual or group blinded by panic, confusion, injury, or disease. It could be technologists attempting social fixes, or social practitioners addressing scientific ones. The common thread is that it is the ignorance itself, and the stupidity (perhaps domain-specific, temporary, contextual, or emergent) which matters. The essay is exceptionally insightful.

wizofaus 4y ago

Arguably our inability to reform our economies to be more compatible with ecological sustainability is partly due to the level (and consequent inertia) of complexity in our systems though. Though I'd say the lack of motivation is largely due to human nature (there's presumably never been sufficient selective pressure to favour genes linked with the ability to properly plan for futures beyond our own lifespans or to be concerned by global-scale long term threats).