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The only question here is what "in the end" means. I can make a bet that, say, OSX won't exist in its current form in twenty years. But that doesn't inform any
by jeffreymcmanus 15y ago
The only question here is what "in the end" means.
I can make a bet that, say, OSX won't exist in its current form in twenty years. But that doesn't inform any particular action I should take today. "The end" can be a long time away, and in technology empires rise and fall in a span of three to five years.
- leot 15y agoAgree. Long run behavior is mostly useful when deciding between two competing alternatives in which the short-term consequences are unimportant. I'd assert that the widely-accepted "in the end" kinds notions are noxious, and speak to a "happily ever after" narrative that has always been false. "In the long run we're all dead." Another such poisonous idea is "the truth will out" -- sure, maybe. But once it does it could no longer matter, and there will likely be other far more significant falsehoods to worry about. Similarly, "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." When it comes to knowledge, this might be translated as "populations can remain ignorant and make stupid decisions long enough to have irreversible disastrous consequences."