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There is an inverse relationship between the age of a futurist and the amount of time they think it will take for their predictions to become true. In other wo
by MichaelCollins 4y ago
There is an inverse relationship between the age of a futurist and the amount of time they think it will take for their predictions to become true.
In other words, people making these sort of predictions about the future are biased towards believing they'll be alive to benefit from it.
- gwern 4y ago> There is an inverse relationship between the age of a futurist and the amount of time they think it will take for their predictions to become true. That's not true. The so-called Maes-Garreau law or effect does not replicate in actual surveys, as opposed to a few cherrypicked futurist examples.
- adamsmith143 4y ago> There is an inverse relationship between the age of a futurist and the amount of time they think it will take for their predictions to become true. I think calling Carmack a Futurist is pretty insulting.
- MichaelCollins 4y agoWhy? Because he also wrote some game engines?
- beeboop 4y agoBecause he's an extremely analytical person and is extremely data driven. He isn't trying to sell some Ted talk
- MichaelCollins 4y agoThere's all sorts of accomplished people on this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_futurologists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_futurologists