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There is a part in me that is scared that the fast takeoff is happening...

• visarga 4y ago
  No, even if we had AGI today we would still not be able to deploy it en masse to automate everything. One single instance would require at least 1000x the power of a cell phone, the chips would need to be very advanced and as we know it takes years to scale a node. Achieving the equivalent of 1000x increase in flops is no small feat. Also the cost of the energy needed to run it would be huge unless we revolutionise AI chips. Think like this - when the flop power of an Nvidia DGX station will be affordable for everyone - that's when we should be afraid.
  • toomuchtodo 4y ago
    Or an arbitrary code execution zero day across a substantial amount of compute capacity? An instance would require only enough resources to where it could bootstrap further faster without human support.
    • visarga 4y ago
      Somebody's going to release AGI just for fun. No need for it to break the jail. Or suppose an AI trained in the real world gets smarter than one trained only in sim. Then someone is going to put advanced AI out there just to be first.