Ask HN: Good resources on utilizing probability in corporate financial planning?

The context here is corporate finance at a normal, mid market services/consulting company. Lots of metrics used in planning like revenue forecasts, allocation and utilization, etc. But I have never seen any Bayesian or other probability included in the model to account for, e.g. the % chance that work will take 3 months instead of 2, or will start 2 weeks late as opposed to on time, etc. Anyone have experience in this area or can point me to a resource that might be interesting for me and a CFO?