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Linux on the desktop is a fantastic counter example.

by Bdennyw 15y ago

RyanMcGreal 15y ago
It may be that MS-DOS/Windows has been "open enough" to capture and hold overwhelming market share. MS-DOS became the default PC OS in the 1980s due to Microsoft's cheap, non-exclusive licencing model, and Windows started out as a GUI layer on top of DOS. In addition, third party developers have always enjoyed free, open access to the same set of system APIs as Microsoft itself, so it has been an easy platform to develop for. That, in turn, has strengthened the positive network externality that keeps Windows dominant.
sp332 15y ago
You're cherry-picking an example. Linux in general is a counter-counter example. In addition to running a large proportion of webservers (actually the open-source Apache server hosts over 50% of all websites), Linux also runs on the majority of smartphones sold.
- warmfuzzykitten 15y ago
  Seems like you're equally guilty of cherry-picking examples. Nothing you said is a counter-example to Linux on the desktop, which has less market share than two "locked in" OSs. Overall, Linux has lower OS market share than five other operating systems, all of which are either from Microsoft or Apple. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_system...
  - omlette 15y ago
    linux on the desktop isnt really a good example because most people don't care about changing the default OS and gamers make up a large %age of people who build their own computers. linux never really stood a chance.
- jeffdavis 15y ago
  Another way of looking at it though is that businesses choose open technology platforms, but consumers choose integrated/closed end products. I'd like to believe that consumers will, in the end, choose open technology (directly or indirectly). Maybe it has something to do with the rate of technological change, and it's just a matter of time before the benefits of open technology are demanded. But the evidence is not conclusive. If anything tips the scales, it will be when consumers start to figure out that they don't own their devices or the content on them. People are getting a vague sense of that with locked-down mp3 players that make it hard to copy songs around. It will be a bigger deal when the person that gives all their books away because now they have electronic ones becomes furious when they find out they are forever beholden to amazon (and its book-deleting whims) to be able to read them.
  - RyanMcGreal 15y ago
    Right before our eyes, consumers are choosing an open technology platform for smartphones - Android - which had 52.5% market share on smartphone sales in Q3 2011. Compare 16.9% for Symbian, 15% for iOS, 11% for BB and 1.5% for Windows Phone. http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1848514 http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1848514
    - cmoscoso 15y ago
      Don't you think the manufacturers are choosing Android?
      - sp332 15y ago
        Manufacturers seem to like Windows Phone 7 too, but those phones aren't selling very well.
  - tikhonj 15y ago
    Maybe I'm overly cynical, but I find consumers tend to choose based on marketing and fashion more than concerns about quality or openness.
- rimantas 15y ago
  And Apple keeps collecting >50% of profits with ~5% iPhone market share.
bryanlarsen 15y ago
Neither Windows nor OS X are (currently) locked down.
tikhonj 15y ago
The main reason Linux is not prevalent on the desktop has nothing to do with openness--it is just basically impossible to buy a new computer with Linux. The reason it is impossible to buy a computer with Linux is largely Mircorosfts wildly anti-competitive behavior in the past. Note how much work and marketing it took Apple to carve out a non-trivial market share--there are no companies pushing Linux adoption nearly as heavily. There are too many confounding factors affecting Linux on the desktop to use it to judge open technology in general.
- kristiandupont 15y ago
  That may be true but the assertion was that open systems tend to win. If you add the premise "except when there are external factors", there is really no argument left.

Linux on the desktop is a fantastic counter example.

by Bdennyw 15y ago

Linux on the desktop is a fantastic counter example.

It may be that MS-DOS/Windows has been "open enough" to capture and hold overwhelming market share. MS-DOS became the default PC OS in the 1980s due to Microsoft's cheap, non-exclusive licencing model, and Windows started out as a GUI layer on top of DOS. In addition, third party developers have always enjoyed free, open access to the same set of system APIs as Microsoft itself, so it has been an easy platform to develop for. That, in turn, has strengthened the positive network externality that keeps Windows dominant.

sp332 15y ago

You're cherry-picking an example. Linux in general is a counter-counter example. In addition to running a large proportion of webservers (actually the open-source Apache server hosts over 50% of all websites), Linux also runs on the majority of smartphones sold.

warmfuzzykitten 15y ago
Seems like you're equally guilty of cherry-picking examples. Nothing you said is a counter-example to Linux on the desktop, which has less market share than two "locked in" OSs. Overall, Linux has lower OS market share than five other operating systems, all of which are either from Microsoft or Apple. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_systems http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_system...
- omlette 15y ago
  linux on the desktop isnt really a good example because most people don't care about changing the default OS and gamers make up a large %age of people who build their own computers. linux never really stood a chance.
jeffdavis 15y ago
Another way of looking at it though is that businesses choose open technology platforms, but consumers choose integrated/closed end products. I'd like to believe that consumers will, in the end, choose open technology (directly or indirectly). Maybe it has something to do with the rate of technological change, and it's just a matter of time before the benefits of open technology are demanded. But the evidence is not conclusive. If anything tips the scales, it will be when consumers start to figure out that they don't own their devices or the content on them. People are getting a vague sense of that with locked-down mp3 players that make it hard to copy songs around. It will be a bigger deal when the person that gives all their books away because now they have electronic ones becomes furious when they find out they are forever beholden to amazon (and its book-deleting whims) to be able to read them.
- RyanMcGreal 15y ago
  Right before our eyes, consumers are choosing an open technology platform for smartphones - Android - which had 52.5% market share on smartphone sales in Q3 2011. Compare 16.9% for Symbian, 15% for iOS, 11% for BB and 1.5% for Windows Phone. http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1848514 http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1848514
  - cmoscoso 15y ago
    Don't you think the manufacturers are choosing Android?
    - sp332 15y ago
      Manufacturers seem to like Windows Phone 7 too, but those phones aren't selling very well.
- tikhonj 15y ago
  Maybe I'm overly cynical, but I find consumers tend to choose based on marketing and fashion more than concerns about quality or openness.
rimantas 15y ago
And Apple keeps collecting >50% of profits with ~5% iPhone market share.

bryanlarsen 15y ago

Neither Windows nor OS X are (currently) locked down.

tikhonj 15y ago

The main reason Linux is not prevalent on the desktop has nothing to do with openness--it is just basically impossible to buy a new computer with Linux. The reason it is impossible to buy a computer with Linux is largely Mircorosfts wildly anti-competitive behavior in the past. Note how much work and marketing it took Apple to carve out a non-trivial market share--there are no companies pushing Linux adoption nearly as heavily. There are too many confounding factors affecting Linux on the desktop to use it to judge open technology in general.

kristiandupont 15y ago
That may be true but the assertion was that open systems tend to win. If you add the premise "except when there are external factors", there is really no argument left.