4 ms·

Here In Silicon Valley, Are We Killing Jobs And Making The Rich Richer?

12 points by llambda 15y ago

tryitnow 15y ago
This is a great article. Here I thought the author was going to criticize Silicon Valley and I was already to bounce on it because...Duty Calls: http://xkcd.com/386/ http://xkcd.com/386/ Then he turns around and actually defends SV pretty well. One thing that I will point out (sorry it's my Duty http://xkcd.com/386/ http://xkcd.com/386/) is that the pace of technological change may be increasing at a rate where it's difficult if not impossible for traditional educational/training institutions to keep up. My bet is that this change in the relationship between technology change and skills change is a big driver of unemployment. This doesn't undermine the main point, but I think it's something to keep in mind for two reasons: 1) It makes one more sympathetic to the plight of the unemployed. Sympathy for the unemployed is something I have trouble with at times. 2) It makes one aware of entrepreneurial opportunities in the education/training/career development markets.
geebee 15y ago
Sorry to trot out an almost cliched expression, but when we talk about killing jobs, we need to remember the difference between creative destruction and, well, destructive destruction. I've destroyed all kinds of jobs with software, but fortunately in my case, the people doing the job were begging me to destroy the jobs. There's so much low hanging fruit in office automation. Just scratch the surface at almost any company, and you'll find situations where someone downloads a spreadsheet and then types the numbers into another system and then emails the screen from the new system to someone still using another system who types in the numbers... In creative destruction, you do create wealth by eliminating inefficiency and waste, but there is a short to medium term transition cost as the people who are no longer going to be paid to do the old thing find something new to do. Fortunately, in my case, all these people had oplenty of other things their organizations wanted them to do, so the creative side of the destruction was immediate. Hmmm... now that I think of it, David Heinemeier Hansson destroyed my old job. I used to get paid a lot of money to slowly type servlets, jdbc, and jsps. Fortunately, for me, the transition was not only quick but very pleasant - I'm a hell of a lot happier, and there's still more than enough software out there to be written. The financial crisis, on the other hand, was destructive destruction.
bps4484 15y ago
another point not mentioned is the benefit to society out of this automation. It makes products cheaper. This means although people may make less money, they are able to buy more with that money. This is the old "would you rather be a rich person in 1900 or a poor person in 2000?" question. With every additional efficiency gain, a person's dollar goes farther. In traditional economic terms, this is shifting the supply curve down. Quantity of a product consumed goes up, price goes down, and there is more net benefit to the consumer.
ChuckMcM 15y ago
"All the wealth in these markets has been shrunk to a fraction of what it was before. And what wealth remains has been redistributed to a smaller number of people. Sound familiar?" <rant mode> This meme needs to die. When Amazon entered the book market the cost to acquire a book went down. It didn't shrink the wealth, it simply changed how much wealth one book represented. What is more, with lower prices the number of books sold actually went up. When Safeway removes Checker's and replaces them with self serve checkout lines, they don't suddenly 'reap the benefit of no more salaries' rather a long grinding process where the cost to produce food has risen and retail prices have remained flat has squeezed ever more margin out of the grocery business. They have recovered some margin, but it won't return to the level that allowed for a large scale 'mom & pop' supermarket. Its ironic to hear people shopping in Walmart that the government should do something about people manufacturing things in China. The prices they enjoy at Walmart would not be possible without some of those conditions. But go and pay 3 - 10% more to support a locally sourced store? "No way!" they will say, they have to make every dollar count. I loved the "I've got a degree where is my fucking job" poster. Like for some reason you put in your 2 to 5 years and voila you get a job. People with science degrees, unemployement is < 5% [1] its actually probably less than 3% in the Bay Area. Because 'need' + 'degree' = job, but a degree in "Fitness and Cinematography", not so much. The recent "don't be a joker" [2] rant exemplified this for me. Basically the theme is "Hey work is serious shit" you know if you expect to get paid, you are expected to add value, and that can mean being inconvienienced by not going on vacation this year, or commuting long hours, or going back to school to learn a skill someone would hire you to employ. At some point the switch flips and you 'get it' that you do what you need to do to get by and you cherish the good things in life and shrug off the crap shoveling that comes in every situation. So here is the deal. There is a large unmet demand for people with science degrees. If you want a degree that will get you a job, get a science degree. There is a large unmet demand for miner's in Australia. [3] If you don't care to get a degree you can make it with a high school diploma. You can get to Australia by trading labor for passage on a merchant marine ship. You can change your lifestyle to work with the income you're able to bring in, you can change your skillset for more income, you can trade off risk for money. The weird part is, this is all there is. (this freaks some people out) Days are going to pass, you get older, you die. How you pass the days are really up to you, and while different people have different hurdles to overcome, its not like waiting will cause that hurdle to disappear. Waiting just wastes time, and eventually you will look back and want that time back, and you won't be able to get it back. <end rant mode> [1] http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sciencecareers/2011/11/science-degrees.html http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sciencecareers/2011/11/science-d... [2] http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3246259 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3246259 [3] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204621904577016172350869312.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020462190457701...

12 points by llambda 15y ago

This is a great article. Here I thought the author was going to criticize Silicon Valley and I was already to bounce on it because...Duty Calls: http://xkcd.com/386/ http://xkcd.com/386/ Then he turns around and actually defends SV pretty well. One thing that I will point out (sorry it's my Duty http://xkcd.com/386/ http://xkcd.com/386/) is that the pace of technological change may be increasing at a rate where it's difficult if not impossible for traditional educational/training institutions to keep up. My bet is that this change in the relationship between technology change and skills change is a big driver of unemployment. This doesn't undermine the main point, but I think it's something to keep in mind for two reasons: 1) It makes one more sympathetic to the plight of the unemployed. Sympathy for the unemployed is something I have trouble with at times. 2) It makes one aware of entrepreneurial opportunities in the education/training/career development markets.

geebee 15y ago

Sorry to trot out an almost cliched expression, but when we talk about killing jobs, we need to remember the difference between creative destruction and, well, destructive destruction. I've destroyed all kinds of jobs with software, but fortunately in my case, the people doing the job were begging me to destroy the jobs. There's so much low hanging fruit in office automation. Just scratch the surface at almost any company, and you'll find situations where someone downloads a spreadsheet and then types the numbers into another system and then emails the screen from the new system to someone still using another system who types in the numbers... In creative destruction, you do create wealth by eliminating inefficiency and waste, but there is a short to medium term transition cost as the people who are no longer going to be paid to do the old thing find something new to do. Fortunately, in my case, all these people had oplenty of other things their organizations wanted them to do, so the creative side of the destruction was immediate. Hmmm... now that I think of it, David Heinemeier Hansson destroyed my old job. I used to get paid a lot of money to slowly type servlets, jdbc, and jsps. Fortunately, for me, the transition was not only quick but very pleasant - I'm a hell of a lot happier, and there's still more than enough software out there to be written. The financial crisis, on the other hand, was destructive destruction.

bps4484 15y ago

another point not mentioned is the benefit to society out of this automation. It makes products cheaper. This means although people may make less money, they are able to buy more with that money. This is the old "would you rather be a rich person in 1900 or a poor person in 2000?" question. With every additional efficiency gain, a person's dollar goes farther. In traditional economic terms, this is shifting the supply curve down. Quantity of a product consumed goes up, price goes down, and there is more net benefit to the consumer.

ChuckMcM 15y ago

"All the wealth in these markets has been shrunk to a fraction of what it was before. And what wealth remains has been redistributed to a smaller number of people. Sound familiar?" <rant mode> This meme needs to die. When Amazon entered the book market the cost to acquire a book went down. It didn't shrink the wealth, it simply changed how much wealth one book represented. What is more, with lower prices the number of books sold actually went up. When Safeway removes Checker's and replaces them with self serve checkout lines, they don't suddenly 'reap the benefit of no more salaries' rather a long grinding process where the cost to produce food has risen and retail prices have remained flat has squeezed ever more margin out of the grocery business. They have recovered some margin, but it won't return to the level that allowed for a large scale 'mom & pop' supermarket. Its ironic to hear people shopping in Walmart that the government should do something about people manufacturing things in China. The prices they enjoy at Walmart would not be possible without some of those conditions. But go and pay 3 - 10% more to support a locally sourced store? "No way!" they will say, they have to make every dollar count. I loved the "I've got a degree where is my fucking job" poster. Like for some reason you put in your 2 to 5 years and voila you get a job. People with science degrees, unemployement is < 5% [1] its actually probably less than 3% in the Bay Area. Because 'need' + 'degree' = job, but a degree in "Fitness and Cinematography", not so much. The recent "don't be a joker" [2] rant exemplified this for me. Basically the theme is "Hey work is serious shit" you know if you expect to get paid, you are expected to add value, and that can mean being inconvienienced by not going on vacation this year, or commuting long hours, or going back to school to learn a skill someone would hire you to employ. At some point the switch flips and you 'get it' that you do what you need to do to get by and you cherish the good things in life and shrug off the crap shoveling that comes in every situation. So here is the deal. There is a large unmet demand for people with science degrees. If you want a degree that will get you a job, get a science degree. There is a large unmet demand for miner's in Australia. [3] If you don't care to get a degree you can make it with a high school diploma. You can get to Australia by trading labor for passage on a merchant marine ship. You can change your lifestyle to work with the income you're able to bring in, you can change your skillset for more income, you can trade off risk for money. The weird part is, this is all there is. (this freaks some people out) Days are going to pass, you get older, you die. How you pass the days are really up to you, and while different people have different hurdles to overcome, its not like waiting will cause that hurdle to disappear. Waiting just wastes time, and eventually you will look back and want that time back, and you won't be able to get it back. <end rant mode> [1] http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sciencecareers/2011/11/science-degrees.html http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sciencecareers/2011/11/science-d... [2] http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3246259 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3246259 [3] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204621904577016172350869312.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020462190457701...