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What-If DC War Game Maps Toll of a Future US-China War over Taiwan

3 points by nabla9 4y ago

sylware 4y ago
This is a direct consequence of the Ukraine-Putin's regime war: unless there is a nuclear-umbrella agreement between the US and Taiwan, Taiwan is as good as gone: ppl who would not accept the level of freedom and basic rights tolerated by China CP have to leave (we are talking about millions of ppl I guess). As for TMSC, they have to move away asap (because rebuilding top-notch chip-tech R&D and foundries elsewhere is no little piece of work). There is also the case of South Korea, and to a lesser extend Japan, because if no nuclear-umbrella agreement is setup for those countries, they hold so much high tech and so many competent ppl... well, if China is not able to manufacture top-notch chips, that's not going to help those countries. The core of the pb is the following: Now more than ever, all countries without a nuclear-umbrella in the world could be the target of "some" nuclear regimes for "any" reasons. It started 20 years ago with the iraky war and those "chemical weapons" (the intend was to avoid a 2nd Koweit or other invasion I guess). Now, it seems this is escalating and accelerating.
- trasz 4y ago
  I'd say the exact opposite: Russian invasion proved that even a small country can successfully defend, and the consequences for the attacker might be lethal. And it would be even worse for a country that depends on export to the West, like China.
jleyank 4y ago
To be blunt, any country without a nuclear deterrent does not have secure borders. Any country relying on the deterrent from another country does not have a nuclear deterrent. Granted, treaty relations and civil behaviour between nations might be secure, but as we have seen it’s no guarantee against rogue states. I would expect that Taiwan, somehow, over the last 60 years found nukes or regrets they did not. I’m not sure a chemical deterrent is sufficient as it’s range and scale limited.

3 points by nabla9 4y ago

This is a direct consequence of the Ukraine-Putin's regime war: unless there is a nuclear-umbrella agreement between the US and Taiwan, Taiwan is as good as gone: ppl who would not accept the level of freedom and basic rights tolerated by China CP have to leave (we are talking about millions of ppl I guess). As for TMSC, they have to move away asap (because rebuilding top-notch chip-tech R&D and foundries elsewhere is no little piece of work). There is also the case of South Korea, and to a lesser extend Japan, because if no nuclear-umbrella agreement is setup for those countries, they hold so much high tech and so many competent ppl... well, if China is not able to manufacture top-notch chips, that's not going to help those countries. The core of the pb is the following: Now more than ever, all countries without a nuclear-umbrella in the world could be the target of "some" nuclear regimes for "any" reasons. It started 20 years ago with the iraky war and those "chemical weapons" (the intend was to avoid a 2nd Koweit or other invasion I guess). Now, it seems this is escalating and accelerating.

trasz 4y ago
I'd say the exact opposite: Russian invasion proved that even a small country can successfully defend, and the consequences for the attacker might be lethal. And it would be even worse for a country that depends on export to the West, like China.

jleyank 4y ago

To be blunt, any country without a nuclear deterrent does not have secure borders. Any country relying on the deterrent from another country does not have a nuclear deterrent. Granted, treaty relations and civil behaviour between nations might be secure, but as we have seen it’s no guarantee against rogue states. I would expect that Taiwan, somehow, over the last 60 years found nukes or regrets they did not. I’m not sure a chemical deterrent is sufficient as it’s range and scale limited.