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I don't doubt what you're saying, although I'm not sure about the validity of the data derived on count of publications, since that's easily gamed. But what I'

I don't doubt what you're saying, although I'm not sure about the validity of the data derived on count of publications, since that's easily gamed. But what I'm saying is about immigration. I really doubt that the PRC will attract much STEM immigration in the future, at least in comparison to the US. As far as I can tell, the few dedicated folks who choose to emigrate to China do so despite an uphill battle and end up with limited job opportunities. The PRC will have a large internal talent pool to draw from, but will not attract foreign and diverse talent... at least that's my hunch, and mostly because of (1) hostile policies to foreigners (2) language barrier - Mandarin is much harder to learn than English (3) cultural barrier - Chinese culture is old and more self-centered than US's young, outward facing and constantly reinventing culture, and (4) having a bad reputation for personal freedoms and judicial fairness. So sure, PRC isn't near its final state in term of STEM talent. But I think despite its domestic talent pool, it will not benefit from the diversity of talent that the US will continue to benefit from. And ultimately, 1.3B people is a large pool to draw talent from, but it's not as large as the other 6.4B people. I do find this topic fascinating. I'm reading a book interview with Lee Kuan Yew which I find is making me reevaluate my prior beliefs. I'm more bullish on China than US on the long term, but LKY's insight were convincing and making a bull case for the US.

dirtyid 4y ago
ON LKY and US, I feel consensus is US is geopolitically blessed and have all the institutions and instruments to preserve their primacy across many domains if they get their shit together. But also so blessed that it can coast along on current incompetence and past momentum fine for foreseeable future. > count of publications Refer to nature science index which collates from prominent western journals with contribution quality assessed by western experts. Or share of PRC science papers filtered/accepted through prestigious western academic conferences in variety of (STEM) domains. Or number of researchers in US/western R&D of PRC origin. There are many indicators that comport with dramatic increase in PRC science competence in recent years that shouldn't be dismissed as pressure to publich / gaming the system but PRC highered reforms finally paying off. >immigration ... attract talent I understand, my point is with the population denominator involved, PRC is generating more talent than US can attract. Quantity has a quality of it's own, meanwhile the proportion of quality among mass quantity is constantly being improved. I also think notion that US drawing from global talent is overstated, PRC is drawing from domestic population that accounts for 20% of global population, apart from fringe minorities, everyone in the system speaks Chinese. Meanwhile, US is realistically drawing from 13% of world that speaks English / has english fluency. One stat I recall is by 2030 PRC will have ~3.5/10 of global stem graduates, Indian ~3/10, US ~0.4/10, EU ~0.8/10. Gut guestimate is eligable pool of talent US can actually draw on is not substantially larger than PRC has domestically. That said, intuitively I do feel diversity of talent is important, but I can't really articulate why. As for hunches on PRC lack of attractiveness for immigration, imo basically true but also misses the point. PRC incentives aren't structured around golden citizenship tickets, but good compensation + access to resources. Look at PRC poaching entire teams of TW and SKR semi engineers by paying them 3x market rate, and building SKR talent churches, basically bribing them with perks knowing full well these are get rich quick limited contract schemes. Or consider PRC thousand talent program with generous perks which work(ed?) pretty well at attracting foreign academic talent, strategically drawing "sea turtles" - Chinese diasphora scientists in premiere western institutions with all the language+culture reprequisits to work in PRC. Pay them lots, give them a well funded lab, it's an easy sell. Work(ed) because it's a tap western policies is attempting to turn off (US China Initiative, TW trying to ban semi talent from working in PRC due to national security). But it's not because PRC is "unattractive", PRC has money, money is very attractive. Ergo PRC geopolitical competitors need to draft literal legistlation to undermine/outlaw strategic talent from working in PRC. In TW's case because they literally can't afford to pay their semi talent well enough to compete with PRC money firehose.
- AYBABTME 4y ago
  We'll see, I wouldn't personally be against doing a stint of my career in China if the conditions are decent. Right now however, I feel like I'd be at the mercy of some geopolitical game, being Canadian living in the US. The lack of due process for an average joe like me who'd otherwise be curious to experience the culture, seems like a real deterrent. I'm probably not the only one who's feeling uneasy about possibly being a pawn in someone's political games. Hence where I derive my strong doubts about attracting foreign talent. If an open minded and willing person like me has strong doubts about his and his family's safety should he go there... it seems like Occam's Razor to me (or perhaps it's another razor?). It's most likely that my experience isn't unique and that other folks are also deterred in a similar fashion.

dirtyid 4y ago

ON LKY and US, I feel consensus is US is geopolitically blessed and have all the institutions and instruments to preserve their primacy across many domains if they get their shit together. But also so blessed that it can coast along on current incompetence and past momentum fine for foreseeable future. > count of publications Refer to nature science index which collates from prominent western journals with contribution quality assessed by western experts. Or share of PRC science papers filtered/accepted through prestigious western academic conferences in variety of (STEM) domains. Or number of researchers in US/western R&D of PRC origin. There are many indicators that comport with dramatic increase in PRC science competence in recent years that shouldn't be dismissed as pressure to publich / gaming the system but PRC highered reforms finally paying off. >immigration ... attract talent I understand, my point is with the population denominator involved, PRC is generating more talent than US can attract. Quantity has a quality of it's own, meanwhile the proportion of quality among mass quantity is constantly being improved. I also think notion that US drawing from global talent is overstated, PRC is drawing from domestic population that accounts for 20% of global population, apart from fringe minorities, everyone in the system speaks Chinese. Meanwhile, US is realistically drawing from 13% of world that speaks English / has english fluency. One stat I recall is by 2030 PRC will have ~3.5/10 of global stem graduates, Indian ~3/10, US ~0.4/10, EU ~0.8/10. Gut guestimate is eligable pool of talent US can actually draw on is not substantially larger than PRC has domestically. That said, intuitively I do feel diversity of talent is important, but I can't really articulate why. As for hunches on PRC lack of attractiveness for immigration, imo basically true but also misses the point. PRC incentives aren't structured around golden citizenship tickets, but good compensation + access to resources. Look at PRC poaching entire teams of TW and SKR semi engineers by paying them 3x market rate, and building SKR talent churches, basically bribing them with perks knowing full well these are get rich quick limited contract schemes. Or consider PRC thousand talent program with generous perks which work(ed?) pretty well at attracting foreign academic talent, strategically drawing "sea turtles" - Chinese diasphora scientists in premiere western institutions with all the language+culture reprequisits to work in PRC. Pay them lots, give them a well funded lab, it's an easy sell. Work(ed) because it's a tap western policies is attempting to turn off (US China Initiative, TW trying to ban semi talent from working in PRC due to national security). But it's not because PRC is "unattractive", PRC has money, money is very attractive. Ergo PRC geopolitical competitors need to draft literal legistlation to undermine/outlaw strategic talent from working in PRC. In TW's case because they literally can't afford to pay their semi talent well enough to compete with PRC money firehose.

AYBABTME 4y ago
We'll see, I wouldn't personally be against doing a stint of my career in China if the conditions are decent. Right now however, I feel like I'd be at the mercy of some geopolitical game, being Canadian living in the US. The lack of due process for an average joe like me who'd otherwise be curious to experience the culture, seems like a real deterrent. I'm probably not the only one who's feeling uneasy about possibly being a pawn in someone's political games. Hence where I derive my strong doubts about attracting foreign talent. If an open minded and willing person like me has strong doubts about his and his family's safety should he go there... it seems like Occam's Razor to me (or perhaps it's another razor?). It's most likely that my experience isn't unique and that other folks are also deterred in a similar fashion.