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It's worth noting that the NYT fails to include any kind of the usual background establishing that there is a real effect here; the one link they provide, to th
by gwern 4y ago
It's worth noting that the NYT fails to include any kind of the usual background establishing that there is a real effect here; the one link they provide, to their own past reporting on the wild inaccuracy of home appraisals in general, shows that you can trivially manufacture these sorts of differences: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/09/realestate/commercial/appraisals-overvalue-real-estate-study-finds.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/09/realestate/commercial/app...
> In general, appraisals overvalued the properties, the study found. Of the 2,076 properties it examined, 64 percent were appraised at values that exceeded the sale price, by a total of $1.4 billion, while 35.5 percent were appraised at less than the sale price, by a total of $661 million. At the extremes, in 121 instances, appraised value was >200% sale price, and in 132 examples, the appraisal was <70% of the sale price. It is like “a game of horseshoes and throwing grenades,” the authors wrote of the results. “Close is good enough.”
- rayiner 4y agoMany smart, credentialed people are no savvier when it comes to anything involving math than a random yokel in West Virginia. They literally turn their brains off if numbers or statistics comes up. I mean, the people who wrote and edited this article have college degrees! From good schools probably—it’s hard to get jobs at the New York Times! I wouldn’t be surprised if the assertion in the article was correct! Home appraisal seems like an obvious area where bias could creep in. But the article doesn’t change the odds ratio of that conjecture being correct at all.